ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[dukeblue219]

AF307 seems to be having communication issues. The last 2 datasets are missing.

Flight path looks like he's headed home early?

[NDG]

Fresh pictures of St Marteen this morning.

https://www.facebook.com/RCIGUADELOUPE9 ... =3&theater

[Crackbone]

Was listening to do tremble on 103.3 the vibe and he said it's trending east and Florida should be good. He also said sucks foe people who spent money. I'm like wtf.

It's crap like this that gets folks in trouble. -removed- over the air waves is irresponsible at best.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I am really not sure how I feel about those far-east scenario. What do you guys think? (I mean the GEFS, CMC, etc who barely effect CONUS at all)

[Extratropical94]

AF307 seems to be having communication issues. The last 2 datasets are missing.

Flight path looks like he's headed home early?

Yes, the latest set just came in. They left the operational altitude, so the mission should be over I guess.

[KBBOCA]

Current look at San Juan radar. It's looking as if there could still be very significant impacts in Islands like St. Thomas & Vieques even without a direct hit. Big storm, still very close to these locations...

[sweetpea]

I hope I am doing this right, here is a link for Puerto Rico, right now they are showing alive shot of St. Maarten

https://www.facebook.com/titohernandezrd/

[Extratropical94]

End of mission. Maybe technichal issues.

[Steve H.]

Was listening to do tremble on 103.3 the vibe and he said it's trending east and Florida should be good. He also said sucks foe people who spent money. I'm like wtf.

Florida good for what? Getting slammed!!

[dukeblue219]

Looks like AF307 recon is heading back home after just a single pass. Perhaps an equipment issue or something. There's another plane inbound already though, so no major gap in coverage.

[Category6]

Irma looks to be wobbling more west the last hour or so. Every wobble is highly important as this monster bears down on PR.

[NDG]

I am really not sure how I feel about those far-east scenario. What do you guys think? (I mean the GEFS, CMC, etc who barely effect CONUS at all)

First of all the CMC is not a good model to follow past its 48 hr forecast, the GFS has been right biased all along with with Irma in its 4-5 day range.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I am really not sure how I feel about those far-east scenario. What do you guys think? (I mean the GEFS, CMC, etc who barely effect CONUS at all)

First of all the CMC is not a good model to follow past its 48 hr forecast, the GFS has been right biased all along with with Irma in its 4-5 day range.

I am currently working on possibly going down to help with the response, but I don't want to arrange as such unless I know there are going to be major effects.

[La Sirena]

I am really not sure how I feel about those far-east scenario. What do you guys think? (I mean the GEFS, CMC, etc who barely effect CONUS at all)

First of all the CMC is not a good model to follow past its 48 hr forecast, the GFS has been right biased all along with with Irma in its 4-5 day range.

I am currently working on possibly going down to help with the response, but I don't want to arrange as such unless I know there are going to be major effects.

While I appreciate that kind of effort, I don't think you're going to know until it's too late to get there.

[NDG]

I am really not sure how I feel about those far-east scenario. What do you guys think? (I mean the GEFS, CMC, etc who barely effect CONUS at all)

First of all the CMC is not a good model to follow past its 48 hr forecast, the GFS has been right biased all along with with Irma in its 4-5 day range.

I am currently working on possibly going down to help with the response, but I don't want to arrange as such unless I know there are going to be major effects.

Keep an eye on the Euro model, it has been doing a very good job within its 72 hr, almost to the T. I think by tonight or tomorrow morning at the latest it can give us a better idea on a track as it approaches S FL.

[NJWxHurricane]

nice north wobble last slide, anything north will help PR at this point

[Janie2006]

The amount of disinformation, -removed-, and fear-mongering I've seen is appalling. I've seen television news anchors with eyes the size of dinner plates talking to the audience as if they were six year-olds. "This is a HURRICANE!" On social media peeps are talking about panic attacks and Cat 6 storms.....these people are nowhere, and I mean nowhere near the danger zone, or even realistically at risk. And it doesn't matter how many reputable mets post their reasoned prognostications, some people persist with this. I suppose people will believe whatever they wish, eh?

Of course Irma is a very dangerous storm that will have zero difficulty in icing you if you're missing some neurons. However, panic does no one any good and can only worsen the situation. It certainly will not and cannot help people that are now being directly impacted. This isn't about clickbait or earning ad revenue, it's about lives at this point. And I'm shouting into the wind. Welcome to the new normal.

Back to business.

[plasticup]

I'm in Brevard county fl... based on models, could get worst side if tracks up central fl, but if current models and it stays off coast, looks like we will get something but bad? if it does stay off coast of fl will it's intensity stay high (cat 4)???

The models are NOT meant for this kind of decision making. If you are inside the NHC cone there is a fair chance of taking a direct hit. Anything else is reclless speculation.

[Hurricane Andrew]

First of all the CMC is not a good model to follow past its 48 hr forecast, the GFS has been right biased all along with with Irma in its 4-5 day range.

I am currently working on possibly going down to help with the response, but I don't want to arrange as such unless I know there are going to be major effects.

Keep an eye on the Euro model, it has been doing a very good job within its 72 hr, almost to the T. I think by tonight or tomorrow morning at the latest it can give us a better idea on a track as it approaches S FL.

Indeed. If this thing were to hit Florida head on, it would be nothing short of catastrophic. I can't fathom what I might be going into, but I have to be on the ground this time. I have to help.

[NDG]

Radar loop from PR shows almost a due west heading, hopefully it will start turning soon.
But unfortunately a direct hit to the Virgin Islands is almost a guarantee now.