ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

So based on radar this is how Irma has been moving based on an online calculating site.

6:30 UTC, 17.8N, 62.1W

14:00 UTC, 18.2N, 63.9W

This calculates to a heading of 283 degrees, if this heading continues the eye will track over the Virgin Islands, more on the British side, but the eye would miss Puerto Rico but the SW Eyewall could brush the NE tip of the Island.

[eastcoastFL]

Im not a pro whatsoever.

I don't see how it could move too much further east. If the shortwave moves in faster it would miss Irma because she wouldn't be close enough yet to catch her which would just allow the ridge to build back in and then force Irma further to the west. That's my understanding of the set up.

Models don't just keep moving one way or the other because they feel like it or because it's a trend. It's because of the current situation in the area the storm is headed.

Just a day ago maybe a little more they were shifting west. So don't base any preparations based on models. It's the nhc job to use the models and make the best decision based on them. NOT OURS

Also Irma is massive in size just because the eye isn't passing directly over you doesn't mean there won't be devastated areas away from the eye.

Ive been through quite a few canes and I've never considered leaving but guess what I'm leaving this time. I'm leaving tonight.

[MGC]

Looks to be a moat forming around Irma looking at the long range radar out of San Juan. Could be an EWRC starting. I don't see much of a north component to the movement according to the radar. USVI and BVI are going to get the eyewall unless Irma wobbles away. Too early to tell if PR get the eyewall yet......MGC

[La Sirena]

Im not a pro whatsoever.

I don't see how it could move too much further east. If the shortwave moves in faster it would miss Irma because she wouldn't be close enough yet to catch her which would just allow the ridge to build back in and then force Irma further to the west. That's my understanding of the set up.

Models don't just keep moving one way or the other because they feel like it or because it's a trend. It's because of the current situation in the area the storm is headed.

Just a day ago maybe a little more they were shifting west. So don't base any preparations based on models. It's the nhc job to use the models and make the best decision based on them. NOT OURS

Also Irma is massive in size just because the eye isn't passing directly over you doesn't mean there won't be devastated areas away from the eye.

Ive been through quite a few canes and I've never considered leaving but guess what I'm leaving this time. I'm leaving tonight.

Better safe than sorry! I know bugging out sucks but the alternative is far worse. Safe travels!

[Hurricane Andrew]

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... -200-0-100

I have no words. Once the EWRC is finished, is there really anything to keep this from restrengthening?

[nativefloridian]

I would bet by tomorrow that NHC shifts east again...This is causing me huge grief with hysterical family members who are calling and worried about my mother...These people are acting on 2 day old information and don't realize the rational call here that is quickly turning in to a safer call to stay than go...

If you are reassuring anyone in Florida, you are being incredibly reckless. They are in the cone. I don't give a damn what the latest model run shows - that's not how the models are meant to be used.

Thank you! People who rely on the latest model runs instead of the NHC and local emergency statements need to calm down. Prepare but don't panic!

I agree that comments made by the media (tv & social) are underplaying the seriousness of this storm and how large this storm is if it veers just offshore! Are they being irresponsible? IMO, I say yes! This storm is much larger than the width of the State of Florida and there are too many living in Florida now that have no idea what it's like to go through a catastrophic hurricane. Being born and raised in South Florida, since 1957, I've been through my share of TS/Hurricanes and I will be first to say that the most important thing is to not let your guard down regardless of what this or that model says on whatever model run you happen to be looking at. PLEASE pay attention to the NHC's forecast and track as, I feel, they are the most reliable source of information! OK, I'm done with my rant....and thanks for listening.

[RL3AO]

This is well south of the forecast

No, it is not.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 061426
AF305 1311A IRMA HDOB 12 20170906
141730 1705N 06440W 6966 03134 0027 +100 -021 305034 034 039 000 03
141800 1706N 06439W 6967 03131 0023 +101 -026 309034 035 040 000 03
141830 1707N 06437W 6971 03123 0022 +100 -024 310035 035 040 000 00
141900 1709N 06436W 6963 03131 0018 +102 -026 310035 036 041 000 00
141930 1710N 06435W 6970 03120 0016 +102 -040 308035 036 042 001 00
142000 1711N 06433W 6967 03121 0008 +108 -039 310036 036 042 001 00
142030 1713N 06432W 6965 03121 0008 +105 -046 311036 037 043 001 00
142100 1714N 06431W 6965 03120 0006 +105 -048 308036 037 042 002 00
142130 1715N 06429W 6967 03115 0005 +105 -048 305038 039 041 000 00
142200 1716N 06428W 6967 03114 0002 +104 -046 302039 040 041 000 00
142230 1718N 06427W 6966 03111 0010 +095 -047 297040 041 041 000 00
142300 1719N 06425W 6969 03105 0005 +096 -047 295040 040 041 001 00
142330 1720N 06424W 6973 03098 0005 +094 -048 295041 042 042 001 00
142400 1722N 06423W 6965 03103 0002 +093 -047 297042 043 043 001 00
142430 1723N 06421W 6968 03094 9994 +095 -039 299045 046 043 001 00
142500 1724N 06420W 6971 03088 9988 +097 -044 299049 051 043 002 00
142530 1726N 06419W 6965 03090 9983 +097 -052 299052 053 045 001 00
142600 1727N 06417W 6963 03089 9978 +097 -047 293054 056 044 002 00
142630 1728N 06416W 6970 03078 9978 +096 -055 290057 058 045 005 00
142700 1730N 06414W 6969 03075 9975 +094 -057 288059 059 046 005 03

[CourierPR]

The NHC says Irma is moving WNW. If you place a straight edge horizontally on your computer screen where the eye is on satellite, you can see the WNW movement--not wobbles, but actual movement.

[NDG]

San Juan already had TS force wind gusts last hour with that first squall line that moved through.

Conditions at: TJSJ observed 06 September 2017 13:17 UTC
Temperature: 24.4°C (76°F)
Dewpoint: 22.8°C (73°F) [RH = 91%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.79 inches Hg (1008.9 mb)
Winds: from the E (80 degrees) at 20 MPH (17 knots; 8.8 m/s)
gusting to 47 MPH (41 knots; 21.3 m/s)
Visibility: 10 or more miles (16+ km)
Ceiling: 4700 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 2500 feet AGL
broken clouds at 4700 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 5500 feet AGL
Present Weather: -RA (light rain)

[FLeastcoast]

Im not a pro whatsoever.

I don't see how it could move too much further east. If the shortwave moves in faster it would miss Irma because she wouldn't be close enough yet to catch her which would just allow the ridge to build back in and then force Irma further to the west. That's my understanding of the set up.

Models don't just keep moving one way or the other because they feel like it or because it's a trend. It's because of the current situation in the area the storm is headed.

Just a day ago maybe a little more they were shifting west. So don't base any preparations based on models. It's the nhc job to use the models and make the best decision based on them. NOT OURS

Also Irma is massive in size just because the eye isn't passing directly over you doesn't mean there won't be devastated areas away from the eye.

Ive been through quite a few canes and I've never considered leaving but guess what I'm leaving this time. I'm leaving tonight.

I agree. I grew up in FL and have never left for a hurricane..even stayed for Andrew although I was in Broward county and not Dade county (miami) I am leaving today also.

[pokkeherrie]

Right now, I'm going to be bullish and pound the table for OTS.

She's going fishing. I'm not an expert, I've just been watching storms long enough to know that when models are shifting east this early, the trend usually keeps going east. In fact, it's probably going to be sunny and a little bit windy for the Carolinas and FL.

But with that said...I already stocked up on hurricane supplies LAST FRIDAY and I booked rooms at two different hotels for Monday-Tuesday and Tuesday-Thursday. Trying to cover all possible scenarios.

TIP: If you reserve a hotel through a third party site and you need to push the days back, you'll have to cancel the rooms and re-book which means that if the great unwashed masses are all booking rooms at this time, you're SOL. So just book multiple rooms for multiple days and then cancel the ones you don't need. Hopefully you don't need any of them.

Is there any science to back up your theory? What makes the models shift further to the east? How far? Remember Irma is over 400 miles wide.

None it looks like. A feeling. Sorry, not good enough with the empirical science gains we have made in the last few hundred of years LOL.

Fully aware this could take an eastern track -- but the other scenario is much more destructive and right now the NHC forecast. It's hard but sometimes we have to trust the experts.

[Sanibel]

..This is causing me huge grief with hysterical family members who are calling and worried about my mother...These people are acting on 2 day old information and don't realize the rational call here that is quickly turning in to a safer call to stay than go...

If you are reassuring anyone in Florida, you are being incredibly reckless. They are in the cone. I don't give a damn what the latest model run shows - that's not how the models are meant to be used.[/quote]



I live on Sanibel Island which is an "A" zone surge exposure...I assume people understand that I am referring to a decision on whether or not to evacuate from there...


Believe me I am not making this decision lightly and I believe the models will stay east tomorrow and NHC track will follow...I have a relative on the island who agrees...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Right now, I'm going to be bullish and pound the table for OTS.

She's going fishing. I'm not an expert, I've just been watching storms long enough to know that when models are shifting east this early, the trend usually keeps going east. In fact, it's probably going to be sunny and a little bit windy for the Carolinas and FL.

But with that said...I already stocked up on hurricane supplies LAST FRIDAY and I booked rooms at two different hotels for Monday-Tuesday and Tuesday-Thursday. Trying to cover all possible scenarios.

TIP: If you reserve a hotel through a third party site and you need to push the days back, you'll have to cancel the rooms and re-book which means that if the great unwashed masses are all booking rooms at this time, you're SOL. So just book multiple rooms for multiple days and then cancel the ones you don't need. Hopefully you don't need any of them.

I'm here to be frank and say this is an unrealistic scenario right now and your opinion neglects the bulk of all the ensembles and the official NHC track all going towards a landfall over South Florida. So with the trends the other day and by following your logic, you've probably say this would enter the Western GOM. Don't overstate model trends. They change from time to time, the eastern shifts have been much more subtle than the western trends two days back. You may have to rephrase or retract the first two statements.

[Michele B]

I am really not sure how I feel about those far-east scenario. What do you guys think? (I mean the GEFS, CMC, etc who barely effect CONUS at all)

First of all the CMC is not a good model to follow past its 48 hr forecast, the GFS has been right biased all along with with Irma in its 4-5 day range.

I am currently working on possibly going down to help with the response, but I don't want to arrange as such unless I know there are going to be major effects.

Andy,
Can't speak in any official capacity, but I'd say you ARE going to be needed! Even just a heavy rain storm brings lots of flooding to many places in FL, it's so close to sea level.

There will be people in need after this thing, no matter how "slightly" it might graze us (one can hope, right?)

[eastcoastFL]

Im not a pro whatsoever.

I don't see how it could move too much further east. If the shortwave moves in faster it would miss Irma because she wouldn't be close enough yet to catch her which would just allow the ridge to build back in and then force Irma further to the west. That's my understanding of the set up.

Models don't just keep moving one way or the other because they feel like it or because it's a trend. It's because of the current situation in the area the storm is headed.

Just a day ago maybe a little more they were shifting west. So don't base any preparations based on models. It's the nhc job to use the models and make the best decision based on them. NOT OURS

Also Irma is massive in size just because the eye isn't passing directly over you doesn't mean there won't be devastated areas away from the eye.

Ive been through quite a few canes and I've never considered leaving but guess what I'm leaving this time. I'm leaving tonight.

I agree. I grew up in FL and have never left for a hurricane..even stayed for Andrew although I was in Broward county and not Dade county (miami) I am leaving today also.

Glad to hear that. I just can't take a chance being wrong with this one if I stay. I can't have my kids asking me why we didn't leave as the roof flies off. My job is to protect them and leaving is the only guarantee that they'll be safe.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 061436
AF305 1311A IRMA HDOB 13 20170906
142730 1731N 06413W 6970 03069 9967 +096 -058 286062 063 049 003 00
142800 1733N 06412W 6939 03099 9965 +090 -058 283067 069 049 004 00
142830 1734N 06411W 6958 03073 9980 +074 -049 279068 070 050 010 00
142900 1736N 06409W 6966 03052 9979 +067 -059 275065 069 053 022 03
142930 1738N 06408W 6953 03063 9964 +073 -060 292063 065 051 027 00
143000 1739N 06408W 6969 03032 9945 +080 -067 294064 065 052 019 00
143030 1741N 06407W 6967 03027 9931 +084 -065 290062 064 059 011 00
143100 1742N 06406W 6964 03019 9903 +097 -064 288064 065 065 004 00
143130 1744N 06406W 6971 02999 9889 +099 -072 286068 070 068 004 00
143200 1746N 06405W 6960 02999 9856 +114 -068 286071 073 072 004 00
143230 1747N 06404W 6963 02977 9829 +120 -073 284077 079 075 003 00
143300 1749N 06403W 6966 02956 9804 +124 -070 285084 088 080 014 00
143330 1750N 06402W 6970 02926 9823 +084 -085 287089 091 081 015 00
143400 1752N 06401W 6989 02878 9784 +093 -084 286093 096 084 006 00
143430 1754N 06400W 6952 02891 9744 +097 -084 285097 098 093 012 00
143500 1755N 06359W 6966 02833 9697 +098 -086 281102 106 102 022 00
143530 1757N 06358W 6974 02776 9649 +094 -080 277118 121 104 024 03
143600 1758N 06357W 6960 02738 9585 +098 -092 272128 140 133 059 00
143630 1800N 06356W 6945 02687 9492 +104 -103 258118 136 147 025 06
143700 1802N 06354W 6958 02587 9380 +141 -085 252110 120 146 020 03

[Jelff]

I have posted several Google + GIS maps that can display multiple data layers that are hosted mainly on the GIS server operated by the nowCOAST team at NOAA. Unfortunately that GIS server is experiencing significant problems at the worst possible time. Below is the most recent status report from the nowCOAST team.

“nowCOAST web mapping services is presently exhibiting slow map response and occasional blank images due the problem with underlying map server software and heavy web traffic due to Category 5 Hurricane Irma. To ensure the reliability of nowCOAST map services and map viewer for users, NCEP/NCO will be stopping/restarting nowCOAST servers at the IDP facility in College Park at or about 1100 and 2300 UTC each day. These will stops/restarts will likely be increased to several times per days due to the nowCOAST performance issues seen this morning and last night. The additional times have not been set yet. Unfortunately, these stops/restarts will cause an approximate 10 minute disruption to map services to users.”

[Michele B]

..This is causing me huge grief with hysterical family members who are calling and worried about my mother...These people are acting on 2 day old information and don't realize the rational call here that is quickly turning in to a safer call to stay than go...

If you are reassuring anyone in Florida, you are being incredibly reckless. They are in the cone. I don't give a damn what the latest model run shows - that's not how the models are meant to be used.

I live on Sanibel Island which is an "A" zone surge exposure...I assume people understand that I am referring to a decision on whether or not to evacuate from there...


Believe me I am not making this decision lightly and I believe the models will stay east tomorrow and NHC track will follow...I have a relative on the island who agrees...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[/quote]

If this slightly east shift holds true, and Irma stays to the east coast, I'd agree with your decision. With that said, however, I think you should keep your options open for at least another 24 hours.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I live on Sanibel Island which is an "A" zone surge exposure...I assume people understand that I am referring to a decision on whether or not to evacuate from there...


Believe me I am not making this decision lightly and I believe the models will stay east tomorrow and NHC track will follow...I have a relative on the island who agrees...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Agrees this would turn far east enough to spare? I would hope that would be the case and wishcast galore to spare my relatives over South-Central and SE Florida. However, I and alongside members in this forum would rather put my trust on the actual professional meteorologists working in the National Hurricane Center than your relative who perhaps isn't one. This is a serious threat to the majority of the peninsula and here is one wishcast downplaying the reality of the grave dangers ahead of the storm. Consider those who are taking this seriously rather than relying solely on model runs that favor this to spare them and mitigate the people's sense of urgency. You do not run the NHC and they have a far better track record than all of us and most of the global models. Btw, it's currently well southwest of the models, somewhat closer southwest to Puerto Rico than initially thought.