ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sanibel]

If this slightly east shift holds true, and Irma stays to the east coast, I'd agree with your decision. With that said, however, I think you should keep your options open for at least another 24 hours.

Absolutely, I am on tip-toes as far as an evacuation decision still and preparing accordingly..

[RL3AO]

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

The Jose advisory was issued by WPC. Another sign that NHC is making sure its backup is ready to go if needed.

[Evil Jeremy]

11AM NHC Cone keeps Irma right off the FL East Coast, without landfall. 5 day point a couple dozen miles SE of Daytona.

EDIT: Drawing a line between the 4 and 5 day points would have a SEFL landfall, or just skirting the coast.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

The Jose advisory was issued by WPC. Another sign that NHC is making sure its backup is ready to go if needed.

Didn't Andrew take out the NHC's weather radar?

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 061447
AF305 1311A IRMA HDOB 14 20170906
143730 1804N 06354W 6930 02569 9264 +195 +057 241082 099 085 002 03
143800 1806N 06354W 6974 02478 9216 +202 +141 229051 070 045 001 03
143830 1808N 06355W 6966 02472 9238 +160 +133 233027 040 040 002 00
143900 1809N 06356W 6967 02459 9234 +150 +146 220017 022 039 001 03
143930 1810N 06358W 6981 02430 9200 +172 +130 209007 015 035 000 03
144000 1811N 06359W 6987 02422 9201 +168 +126 062003 006 030 000 00
144030 1812N 06401W 6957 02457 9190 +185 +129 037016 020 034 000 03
144100 1813N 06402W 6955 02474 9222 +157 +142 044020 023 /// /// 05
144130 1814N 06401W 6970 02448 9217 +151 +147 061024 024 042 000 01
144200 1815N 06400W 6966 02451 9210 +163 +140 082030 033 042 000 00
144230 1817N 06359W 6961 02452 9193 +180 +116 094033 035 045 001 00
144300 1818N 06358W 6969 02448 9188 +197 +122 107048 053 048 001 00
144330 1819N 06356W 6958 02467 9192 +200 +110 117061 068 073 003 00
144400 1820N 06355W 6975 02470 9222 +191 +119 119086 097 079 001 03
144430 1821N 06354W 6968 02512 9285 +154 +135 122107 113 /// /// 03
144500 1822N 06353W 6924 02597 9340 +136 //// 126130 138 131 000 05
144530 1822N 06352W 6966 02602 //// +128 //// 129145 157 140 000 05
144600 1823N 06351W 6987 02627 //// +107 //// 124162 164 145 003 01
144630 1824N 06351W 6962 02689 9530 +123 +123 123160 161 139 004 03
144700 1824N 06350W 6966 02718 9575 +116 //// 123159 160 133 012 01

[redneck51]

Checking in from the hills south of Las Piedras, Puerto Rico.
First rain bands are moving in, hardly any wind (but that will change soon.)
We still have power, more than I expected. The house is boarded up, everything else is ready. Now it's waiting 'til Irma passes..

Stay safe everybody!

[DESTRUCTION5]

11AM NHC Cone keeps Irma right off the FL East Coast, without landfall. 5 day point a couple dozen miles SE of Daytona.

EDIT: Drawing a line between the 4 and 5 day points would have a SEFL landfall, or just skirting the coast.

See graphic yet?

[Patrick99]

11AM NHC Cone keeps Irma right off the FL East Coast, without landfall. 5 day point a couple dozen miles SE of Daytona.

EDIT: Drawing a line between the 4 and 5 day points would have a SEFL landfall, or just skirting the coast.

I know for sure we'd still get significant weather with that track, but I sure would like that "better" than up-the-spine and front right quadrant eyewall raking the entire tri-county area. At this point, I think "better" is about as much as we can hope for.

[SFLcane]

Essentially could be stronger winds further north in the peninsula.

[ava_ati]

New advisory
[im g]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL112017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/145453_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png[/img]

[AutoPenalti]

NHC website is incredibly slow right now.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 061456
AF305 1311A IRMA HDOB 15 20170906
144730 1825N 06349W 6966 02751 //// +094 //// 123157 158 129 008 05
144800 1826N 06349W 6973 02774 9618 +108 +107 124151 156 123 000 05
144830 1826N 06348W 6963 02816 9647 +113 +097 124146 150 /// /// 03
144900 1827N 06347W 6965 02843 9685 +108 +094 125140 144 108 000 05
144930 1828N 06346W 6967 02866 9712 +105 +100 126134 138 106 000 05
145000 1829N 06345W 6969 02889 //// +101 //// 125129 131 106 000 01
145030 1830N 06344W 6969 02909 9781 +102 //// 125122 126 102 004 01
145100 1831N 06343W 6969 02925 9786 +103 +100 127117 121 097 010 00
145130 1831N 06342W 6961 02951 9803 +106 +105 129112 115 097 010 00
145200 1832N 06341W 6951 02975 9832 +115 +115 137111 117 091 019 00
145230 1833N 06340W 6995 02940 9877 +103 +103 131111 117 083 025 00
145300 1834N 06339W 6960 02992 9892 +096 +096 129112 113 083 023 00
145330 1835N 06338W 6963 03008 9914 +095 +095 127110 113 079 016 00
145400 1836N 06337W 6967 03015 9920 +087 //// 127106 108 075 010 01
145430 1837N 06335W 6965 03029 9922 +087 //// 129105 106 071 006 01
145500 1838N 06334W 6963 03040 9924 +087 +085 129104 105 071 005 00
145530 1839N 06333W 6963 03048 9937 +091 //// 130098 103 068 007 01
145600 1840N 06332W 6968 03051 9943 +096 +092 131092 096 068 007 00
145630 1841N 06331W 6960 03063 9968 +100 //// 129092 099 068 012 01
145700 1842N 06330W 6967 03057 //// +089 //// 133097 099 067 007 01

[curtadams]

11AM NHC Cone keeps Irma right off the FL East Coast, without landfall. 5 day point a couple dozen miles SE of Daytona.

EDIT: Drawing a line between the 4 and 5 day points would have a SEFL landfall, or just skirting the coast.

Track center has Irma grazing the east coast (meaning full eyewall inland and severe surge in a large area) but all of the Florida Peninsula remains in the cone.

[Aric Dunn]

11AM NHC Cone keeps Irma right off the FL East Coast, without landfall. 5 day point a couple dozen miles SE of Daytona.

EDIT: Drawing a line between the 4 and 5 day points would have a SEFL landfall, or just skirting the coast.

besides not following the center line...

how did you ever come up with no landfall from this ? probably one of the worst angles to come in for the miami area..

[i mg]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL112017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/145453_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png[/img]

[bahamaswx]

Satellite appearance has clearly degraded since yesterday, and recon hasn't found 185mph winds for (12?) hours. Why does the NHC continue to insist she's a 185mph storm?

[ScottNAtlanta]

This is not looking good for SC.

[DESTRUCTION5]

New advisory
[i mg]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL112017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/145453_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png[/img]

Looks like landfall technically in PBC...

[Aric Dunn]

geez.. still pretty much same strength .. thats crazy.. 24hrs at 185 ? has to be a record.

144500 1822N 06353W 6924 02597 9340 +136 //// 126130 138 131 000 05
144530 1822N 06352W 6966 02602 //// +128 //// 129145 157 140 000 05
144600 1823N 06351W 6987 02627 //// +107 //// 124162 164 145 003 01
144630 1824N 06351W 6962 02689 9530 +123 +123 123160 161 139 004 03
144700 1824N 06350W 6966 02718 9575 +116 //// 123159 160 133 012 01

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905445592641495041

[Patrick99]

Please, please can we keep east shifts coming. I'm essentially pleading to the universe right now. Every mile east is important.