ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Andrew]

Satellite appearance has clearly degraded since yesterday, and recon hasn't found 185mph winds for (12?) hours. Why does the NHC continue to insist she's a 185mph storm?

Recon heading into the RFQ now...we shall see.

[Arsynic]

 https://twitter.com/AndySlater/status/905419045368942593

It just got real...

[Vdogg]

Looks to be a moat forming around Irma looking at the long range radar out of San Juan. Could be an EWRC starting. I don't see much of a north component to the movement according to the radar. USVI and BVI are going to get the eyewall unless Irma wobbles away. Too early to tell if PR get the eyewall yet......MGC

Look at the satellite with the Lat/Lon on. It is still gaining latitude, there is very much a northern component.

[Bamagirl2408]

Ryan Maue posted a latest ensemble. Made it to FB suggesting Nhc was moving east and people wants to take back their generators ans think they are on the clear. If model doesnt run for another 30ish minutes, how is that guidance new?

[ronjon]

This is not looking good for SC.

or Savannah

[tarheelprogrammer]

Any chance for this storm to restrengthen in the Bahamas near Florida after it weakens some?

[sicktght311]

Watching this closely for my parents in Daytona area. They've already booked a hotel in orlando as their evacuation point, but the further east this trends the more i get curious if this might be a Parent/Child threat for my family. Brushes florida then up through the carolinas and perhaps the mid atlantic (my area) gets some remnants. All depends on how east this goes, how strong it stays, and pretty much every other variable out there. This has been and continues to be an extremely unique, dangerous, and confusing storm to track. Even Sandy hinted at what she was going to do 4-5 days in advance, even though other models kept saying otherwise. This one just changes with every run of the models it seems. Praying for everyone in the path of Irma, and DO NOT take it lightly. DO NOT sound the all clear until its literally past you and you're fine. Your gut feeling and your home are not worth your life.
Anything otherwise is irresponsible.

[Aric Dunn]

Satellite appearance has clearly degraded since yesterday, and recon hasn't found 185mph winds for (12?) hours. Why does the NHC continue to insist she's a 185mph storm?

Recon heading into the RFQ now...we shall see.

pretty much 185 still..

[AutoPenalti]

Some people on my Facebook feed are returning their shutters and generators.

How sad.

[dukeblue219]

Satellite appearance has clearly degraded since yesterday, and recon hasn't found 185mph winds for (12?) hours. Why does the NHC continue to insist she's a 185mph storm?

They always explain their reasoning in the discussions. This morning recon measured 175mph with the SFMR in the NW quadrant. Surface obs recorded 155mph before failing. A dropsonde fell through 183mph gusts at ~600 feet. It's not unreasonable to keep the max sustained wind figure at 185mph in the next advisory, although you could also make the case for 175mph. In the end, it doesn't really matter.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 061506
AF305 1311A IRMA HDOB 16 20170906
145730 1843N 06328W 6962 03069 9945 +095 +085 133095 099 064 002 00
145800 1844N 06327W 6966 03068 9952 +094 +081 133093 095 065 004 01
145830 1845N 06326W 6965 03074 9955 +094 +082 138088 090 065 006 00
145900 1847N 06325W 6967 03074 9972 +097 +092 139082 088 066 010 00
145930 1848N 06324W 6970 03079 9987 +097 +096 129080 083 066 017 03
150000 1849N 06322W 6974 03072 9995 +099 +099 132088 088 063 020 00
150030 1850N 06321W 6961 03090 9991 +099 //// 131083 087 062 007 01
150100 1851N 06320W 6967 03087 //// +088 //// 130082 083 062 004 01
150130 1852N 06319W 6969 03088 9981 +089 +088 130081 082 061 002 01
150200 1853N 06317W 6965 03098 9985 +090 +082 131078 080 062 001 00
150230 1854N 06316W 6966 03100 9986 +095 +076 132075 076 059 002 00
150300 1855N 06315W 6969 03100 9983 +101 +068 132075 076 060 001 00
150330 1856N 06314W 6963 03109 9983 +104 +065 132074 074 060 000 00
150400 1857N 06312W 6965 03111 9987 +105 +065 132072 073 059 000 00
150430 1858N 06311W 6969 03109 9995 +100 +072 133071 072 059 001 00
150500 1900N 06310W 6965 03116 9997 +100 +080 133068 070 057 001 00
150530 1901N 06309W 6969 03113 0003 +095 +087 133067 068 057 001 00
150600 1902N 06307W 6967 03119 0004 +097 +084 136067 068 055 001 00
150630 1903N 06306W 6967 03121 0010 +090 +084 136067 069 056 004 00
150700 1904N 06305W 6971 03119 0010 +096 +087 135070 072 056 003 01

[Vdogg]

Radar trend seems to indicate slightly north of due west. We need a more northerly component to the storm motion if PR is to avoid a major hit.

seeing more north wobbles now, PR might be saved

It's hitting it's forecast points perfectly. Everytime I think it's going to come in under, it wobbles to the north and hits it.

[La Sirena]

This is not looking good for SC.

or Savannah

Actually, Tybee....that's the barrier island in front of Savannah. They got hammered with Matthew last year. Savannah had some flooding and winds but nothing like poor little Tybee. I would hate to see that happen again.....don't really want to see it go anywhere.

[sponger]

[quote="ava_ati"]New advisory

Well that sucks, bad.

[bahamaswx]

Satellite appearance has clearly degraded since yesterday, and recon hasn't found 185mph winds for (12?) hours. Why does the NHC continue to insist she's a 185mph storm?

Recon heading into the RFQ now...we shall see.

pretty much 185 still..

Pressure is up and sfmr/fl winds supports more like 150kts.

[ronjon]

Actually if you view the line plot on the NHC website the storm landfalls in Miami-Ft Laud area. Pretty much a direct hit.

[Sanibel]

I think this might give the US Virgin Islands more of a hit than they thought if the present track holds...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Extratropical94]

Center splash, 923 mb with 7 knots

UZNT13 KNHC 061506
XXAA 56157 99182 70640 04384 99923 27811 11007 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85727 24010 15508 70413 ///// 21502 88999 77999
31313 09608 81439
61616 AF305 1311A IRMA OB 04
62626 CENTER MBL WND 13506 AEV 33304 DLM WND 14507 922699 WL150 1
3006 081 REL 1818N06398W 143947 SPG 1819N06398W 144335 =
XXBB 56158 99182 70640 04384 00923 27811 11850 24010 22708 17225
33699 /////
21212 00923 11007 11894 14505 22850 15508 33699 23502
31313 09608 81439
61616 AF305 1311A IRMA OB 04
62626 CENTER MBL WND 13506 AEV 33304 DLM WND 14507 922699 WL150 1
3006 081 REL 1818N06398W 143947 SPG 1819N06398W 144335 =

[Evil Jeremy]

besides not following the center line...

how did you ever come up with no landfall from this ? probably one of the worst angles to come in for the miami area..

[img]

Well, compared to the last advisory which had a pretty clear landfall in the middle of the state, NHC doesn't explicitly forecast Irma going inland in this advisory. Granted, it could easily happen between the 4 and 5 day points, I'm just keeping to the technicalities of the advisory. No doubt this is still a destructive path.

[meriland29]

Right now, I'm going to be bullish and pound the table for OTS.

She's going fishing. I'm not an expert, I've just been watching storms long enough to know that when models are shifting east this early, the trend usually keeps going east. In fact, it's probably going to be sunny and a little bit windy for the Carolinas and FL.

But with that said...I already stocked up on hurricane supplies LAST FRIDAY and I booked rooms at two different hotels for Monday-Tuesday and Tuesday-Thursday. Trying to cover all possible scenarios.

TIP: If you reserve a hotel through a third party site and you need to push the days back, you'll have to cancel the rooms and re-book which means that if the great unwashed masses are all booking rooms at this time, you're SOL. So just book multiple rooms for multiple days and then cancel the ones you don't need. Hopefully you don't need any of them.

That's a heavy assumption. Even though the models trend northward due to the trough, it has also consistently kept the ridge behind it immediately driving her into the states. 80-90% of the spaghetti models have her hitting the states. Sure, you are ready, but you are also trying to convince others that they probably wont be in danger when you have no idea what you are talking about. That's dangerous.