ATL: IRMA - Models

[Category6]

NHC has it weakening 50+ mph over the next several days. Is this due to outflow cutoff from land proximity? That is significant weakening.

[wzrgirl1]

If you read the 11 am discussion there are still models that take it to the west of florida or right over florida. Furthermore, if the center does stay offshore then the storm will stay stronger and feeder bands coming inland will probably be worse for the coast and inland Broward, Dade, and Palm Beach. By no means is South Florida out of the woods. Not by any stretch of the imagination.

[wzrgirl1]

NHC has it weakening 50+ mph over the next several days. Is this due to outflow cutoff from land proximity? That is significant weakening.

I believe that is from shear.

[tgenius]

NHC will probably put the 5 day point just off the Palm Beach County coast. Models can still shift back West, but it's looking slightly better for South Florida this morning.

You called it. It shifted ever so slightly east.

Not trying to be nitpicky, but the 8am Sunday position is NOT WPB, that's roughly dade county/keys

[DESTRUCTION5]

Pretty sure thats not good for SFL...

[Ken711]

I'm having a tough time buying into the E of Fl track. Anything is possible, but knowing that all models show no escape route to the east further north, the longer term trend to the west, and the reluctance ( I think rightfully so) for the NHC to move the track further east, I still think most, if not all, S Fl will be in the right-front quadrant. I also think that the earlier S dip the Euro had over Cuba will be "smoothed over" (think that already happened on its last run). So storm should keep to WNW over water just about all the way to the tip of Fl. I'll stay with a landfall at Naples. but I think in any case, with overall trends, and what I said earlier, a trek off the Fl coast to the east is less likely.

NHC cone shifted east with 11:00 AM advisory.

[stormreader]

If you read the 11 am discussion there are still models that take it to the west of florida or right over florida. Furthermore, if the center does stay offshore then the storm will stay stronger and feeder bands coming inland will probably be worse for the coast and inland Broward, Dade, and Palm Beach. By no means is South Florida out of the woods. Not by any stretch of the imagination.

And I guess I'm a western outlier. Think in next 24-36 hours they will hone in back a little farther west toward the upper keys and southern tip of Fl. In any case, I don't think it will be offshore SE Fl. IMO

[stormreader]

I'm having a tough time buying into the E of Fl track. Anything is possible, but knowing that all models show no escape route to the east further north, the longer term trend to the west, and the reluctance ( I think rightfully so) for the NHC to move the track further east, I still think most, if not all, S Fl will be in the right-front quadrant. I also think that the earlier S dip the Euro had over Cuba will be "smoothed over" (think that already happened on its last run). So storm should keep to WNW over water just about all the way to the tip of Fl. I'll stay with a landfall at Naples. but I think in any case, with overall trends, and what I said earlier, a trek off the Fl coast to the east is less likely.

NHC cone shifted east with 11:00 AM advisory.

Just saw it. Guess trends are back east some, will see.

[Vdogg]

NHC will probably put the 5 day point just off the Palm Beach County coast. Models can still shift back West, but it's looking slightly better for South Florida this morning.

You called it. It shifted ever so slightly east.

Not trying to be nitpicky, but the 8am Sunday position is NOT WPB, that's roughly dade county/keys

It was just updated at 11 am. The point is now off the east coast, but I'm unfamiliar with Florida geography so I'll defer to you as to what city it's off of.

[AutoPenalti]

You called it. It shifted ever so slightly east.

Not trying to be nitpicky, but the 8am Sunday position is NOT WPB, that's roughly dade county/keys

It was just updated at 11 am. The point is now off the east coast, but I'm unfamiliar with Florida geography so I'll defer to you as to what city it's off of.

No, it's not.

[Stormcenter]

Looking better for Florida but of course all subject to change....still have until Sunday so a lot can change before then.

[Evil Jeremy]

You called it. It shifted ever so slightly east.

Not trying to be nitpicky, but the 8am Sunday position is NOT WPB, that's roughly dade county/keys

It was just updated at 11 am. The point is now off the east coast, but I'm unfamiliar with Florida geography so I'll defer to you as to what city it's off of.

I believe the previous 5 day point was somewhere inland Broward County, now it's just SE of Daytona. Irma's going to be picking up speed as she crosses Florida.

[Vdogg]

Not trying to be nitpicky, but the 8am Sunday position is NOT WPB, that's roughly dade county/keys

It was just updated at 11 am. The point is now off the east coast, but I'm unfamiliar with Florida geography so I'll defer to you as to what city it's off of.

No, it's not.

Look at the 11 am update cone on the NHC website. There is clearly an "M" to the right of Florida's east coast.

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/905433274046140417




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/905430969313841152




I'm assuming this is with the 00z ensembles. Not out of the woods yet.

[ronjon]

If you read the 11 am discussion there are still models that take it to the west of florida or right over florida. Furthermore, if the center does stay offshore then the storm will stay stronger and feeder bands coming inland will probably be worse for the coast and inland Broward, Dade, and Palm Beach. By no means is South Florida out of the woods. Not by any stretch of the imagination.

Just click on the track line on the NHC forecast map - 11 am track hits Miami and slices up through WPB slightly inland still. No all clear for the gold coast - not by a long shot.

[AutoPenalti]

It was just updated at 11 am. The point is now off the east coast, but I'm unfamiliar with Florida geography so I'll defer to you as to what city it's off of.

No, it's not.

Look at the 11 am update cone on the NHC website. There is clearly an "M" to the right of Florida's east coast.

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[adam0983]

This track is worse for Florida's east coast bringing the center closer to the metro areas compared to yesterday when it would hit key west. What are the chances that hurricane Irma does a hurricane Matthew and misses us completely. The models are showing this further east with each run. What if this went out to sea and we got a sunny day.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS initialized, looks a hair SW of 06Z position:

[BucMan2]

Hi Gator-

Hope all well- With Irma being south of some of the computers at this time, what if any track changes may occur?

[rockyman]

12z GFs is running:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=419