ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronyan]

CNN was reporting that 4 of the best constructed buildings on St. Martin were 'destroyed' but I find it a little hard to believe unless they went through a particularly strong mesovortex. You can see plenty of other buildings standing in St. Martin in the photos.

[sweetpea]

I just spoke to my uncle in PR on FB, he is on the SE side of PR in Salinas. This is also were my dad is, my dad's street always floods. He said the wind is picking up and the streets are already starting to flood.

[RL3AO]

Wonderful. I am scared for you guys in FL. Please get out if you can, please.

I'm staying put. I left Walmart after buying things for work and people were returning water and batteries. About 8 people were in the return line. This was at the port orange Walmart.

People are RETURNING stuff?

This is like watching a slow-motion horror movie for me.

Good. Those supplies can be put to use by smarter people then.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 061546
AF305 1311A IRMA HDOB 20 20170906
153730 1933N 06405W 6961 03124 //// +099 //// 092073 074 057 001 01
153800 1933N 06407W 6970 03113 //// +092 //// 091071 075 057 003 01
153830 1933N 06410W 6962 03120 0025 +089 //// 092070 072 057 005 01
153900 1933N 06412W 6962 03120 0008 +092 +092 090066 068 058 004 00
153930 1933N 06415W 6959 03124 0004 +094 +083 087063 065 057 004 00
154000 1933N 06417W 6963 03119 0014 +089 +084 087064 065 057 003 00
154030 1933N 06420W 6965 03118 0001 +089 +083 087067 068 056 002 01
154100 1933N 06422W 6967 03115 0004 +095 +082 084067 067 055 002 00
154130 1933N 06425W 6962 03120 0004 +094 +082 081068 068 056 001 00
154200 1933N 06427W 6970 03110 0001 +096 +084 082067 068 057 000 00
154230 1933N 06429W 6964 03118 0002 +095 +080 082069 069 056 001 00
154300 1934N 06432W 6970 03113 0005 +095 +087 081071 071 056 002 00
154330 1934N 06434W 6967 03119 0009 +092 +088 082069 072 056 001 01
154400 1934N 06437W 6963 03124 0008 +093 +088 084066 069 055 002 01
154430 1934N 06439W 6967 03120 0004 +098 +088 081066 067 055 002 00
154500 1934N 06442W 6966 03121 0010 +093 +085 076071 073 051 003 00
154530 1934N 06444W 6966 03121 0007 +096 +082 073075 076 051 003 00
154600 1934N 06447W 6966 03124 0016 +091 +081 071076 077 050 003 00
154630 1934N 06449W 6964 03126 0016 +089 +084 072073 074 051 004 01
154700 1934N 06452W 6969 03121 0019 +090 +090 071072 073 051 004 00

[Hurricane Andrew]

I'm staying put. I left Walmart after buying things for work and people were returning water and batteries. About 8 people were in the return line. This was at the port orange Walmart.

People are RETURNING stuff?

This is like watching a slow-motion horror movie for me.

Good. Those supplies can be put to use by smarter people then.

I have dedicated my life now, my entire career, to protecting and serving. This breaks my heart to see. I am not trying to be dramatic, or prideful, or any of that. But RL3, I know that you know, even better than I do, exactly what is likely going to happen here.

[RL3AO]

I have dedicated my life now, my entire career, to protecting and serving. This breaks my heart to see. I am not trying to be dramatic, or prideful, or any of that. But RL3, I know that you know, even better than I do, exactly what is likely going to happen here.

They'll probably get lucky. The eye will stay off shore and they'll think they made a smart decision.

[znel52]

Irma has been encountering near 10kts of SW to southerly shear since last night as shown in the CIMSS shear map, which currently keeps any strengthening in check. The significant deepening in the Bahamas predicted by global models is mainly due to strong poleward outflow channel opening up once she feels the trough to the north

I would be taking those CIMSS shear maps as a grain of salt, it was showing 15 knots of shear over Harvey right when it was intensifying into a Major Hurricane.

[NDG]

BTW, the GFS so far is trending a little more to the W & S so far on the 12z run.

[jlauderdal]

CNN was reporting that 4 of the best constructed buildings on St. Martin were 'destroyed' but I find it a little hard to believe unless they went through a particularly strong mesovortex. You can see plenty of other buildings standing in St. Martin in the photos.

Solid construction there...i doubt well constructed bldgs were destroyed, damage yes

[ronjon]

San Juan radar. St Thomas looks to take a direct hit.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=JUA&loop=yes

[painkillerr]

Getting CLOBERRED IN St. Thomas NOW!

[psyclone]

I'm feeling light years better here based on the trends but will remain tuned in.

[ronjon]

St Thomas VI airport latest:

King Airport, St. Thomas 11:43 Rain Fog/Mist and Windy 79 78 97 NW 52 G 79

[Callista]

CNN was reporting that 4 of the best constructed buildings on St. Martin were 'destroyed' but I find it a little hard to believe unless they went through a particularly strong mesovortex. You can see plenty of other buildings standing in St. Martin in the photos.

Solid construction there...i doubt well constructed bldgs were destroyed, damage yes

If Irma spawned a tornado there, it's perfectly possible. Better information would be: What happened to the other buildings which were also among the strongest?

[Michele B]

Radar trend seems to indicate slightly north of due west. We need a more northerly component to the storm motion if PR is to avoid a major hit.

seeing more north wobbles now, PR might be saved

It's hitting it's forecast points perfectly. Everytime I think it's going to come in under, it wobbles to the north and hits it.

I see that, too, Vdogg. So where does the "forecast point" that shows LandFall show that Land Fall SHOULD end up being?? Do you have a graphic that goes out that far?

[Sanibel]

St John's is east of that...It will be disasterous...(If it stays on current track)


I visited there in 1998 a week before Georges...

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 061556
AF305 1311A IRMA HDOB 21 20170906
154730 1934N 06454W 6971 03118 0012 +094 +093 069074 075 051 003 01
154800 1934N 06457W 6963 03130 0014 +095 +082 070072 073 049 002 00
154830 1934N 06459W 6966 03127 0016 +095 +079 069070 072 048 003 00
154900 1934N 06502W 6963 03131 0018 +095 +078 068067 069 048 002 00
154930 1934N 06504W 6969 03127 0026 +090 +082 065062 065 046 003 00
155000 1934N 06506W 6964 03132 0029 +087 +081 065061 063 047 003 00
155030 1934N 06509W 6966 03132 0027 +090 +080 065059 060 046 003 00
155100 1934N 06511W 6966 03133 0031 +087 +083 064059 060 047 003 00
155130 1934N 06513W 6964 03136 //// +086 //// 063059 060 047 003 01
155200 1934N 06516W 6971 03127 0029 +088 +087 061059 060 047 003 01
155230 1935N 06518W 6967 03135 0026 +095 +077 057059 059 047 003 00
155300 1935N 06520W 6963 03141 0026 +095 +079 056060 061 046 002 00
155330 1935N 06523W 6965 03140 0034 +091 +081 057063 063 047 002 00
155400 1935N 06525W 6971 03133 0033 +094 +073 057062 063 046 002 00
155430 1935N 06527W 6966 03140 0032 +095 +075 057061 062 046 001 00
155500 1935N 06530W 6966 03140 0037 +091 +072 057060 061 045 001 03
155530 1935N 06532W 6967 03140 0037 +089 +077 057060 061 042 002 03
155600 1934N 06534W 6961 03147 0042 +085 +081 054059 060 /// /// 03
155630 1932N 06533W 6967 03137 0039 +086 +081 054056 058 043 003 00
155700 1931N 06532W 6969 03136 0034 +090 +075 056055 056 045 002 00

[NDG]

St Thomas now reporting wind gusting to 87 mph.

Conditions at: TIST observed 06 September 2017 15:53 UTC
Temperature: 26.1°C (79°F)
Dewpoint: 26.1°C (79°F) [RH = 100%]
Pressure (altimeter): missing
Winds: from the NW (320 degrees) at 59 MPH (51 knots; 26.5 m/s)
gusting to 87 MPH (76 knots; 39.5 m/s)
Visibility: 0.50 miles (0.80 km)
Ceiling: 1400 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 1400 feet AGL
Present Weather: RA FG (rain, fog)
TIST 061553Z AUTO 32051G76KT 1/2SM RA FG OVC014 26/26 RMK AO2 PK WND 31076/1547 SLPNO P0016 T02610261

[sponger]

I am willing the GFS to run faster!!!

[NDG]

The western inner eyewall now battling the eastern British Virgin Islands, heading towards the American side, wow!