ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5621 Postby dukeblue219 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:25 pm

Hurrilurker wrote:Irma already ingesting dry air from the flow over Puerto Rico, I would expect the pressure to keep rising. Next, Hispaniola will certainly have a negative effect, even without direct contact.


Recon is in the eye right now. Extrapolated 913.6mb raw data... likely supports under 920 final measurement. We'll see what the dropsonde says.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5622 Postby BYG Jacob » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:27 pm

dukeblue219 wrote:
Hurrilurker wrote:Irma already ingesting dry air from the flow over Puerto Rico, I would expect the pressure to keep rising. Next, Hispaniola will certainly have a negative effect, even without direct contact.


Recon is in the eye right now. Extrapolated 913.6mb raw data... likely supports under 920 final measurement. We'll see what the dropsonde says.

The flow on the NE quad of Irma is enough to counterbalance any dry air to the SW, so she'll probably hold steady intensity wise.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5623 Postby Blinhart » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:28 pm

http://www.katc.com/story/36302637/why- ... o-the-gulf

So this is my meteorologists that I listen to the most, and he is basically said that she will follow up the Cold Front and stay with the warm temps.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#5624 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:28 pm

URNT15 KNHC 061827
AF305 1311A IRMA HDOB 36 20170906
181730 1835N 06446W 6967 02435 9189 +172 +141 156040 042 /// /// 03
181800 1834N 06445W 6966 02439 9185 +180 +140 158040 043 /// /// 03
181830 1832N 06446W 6964 02427 9160 +196 +125 165030 037 043 001 00
181900 1831N 06448W 6969 02413 9138 +216 +111 213018 025 040 002 00
181930 1830N 06449W 6968 02414 9134 +222 +103 262023 025 034 002 00
182000 1829N 06450W 6966 02431 9164 +201 +119 286037 045 050 003 00
182030 1828N 06451W 6967 02451 9193 +190 +128 291052 056 059 006 00
182100 1826N 06452W 6969 02484 9245 +165 +135 291078 085 092 005 03
182130 1825N 06453W 6960 02531 9287 +165 +138 287094 096 139 010 03
182200 1825N 06454W 6954 02558 //// +112 //// 286092 096 146 017 05
182230 1824N 06455W 6957 02621 9472 +118 //// 308118 130 /// /// 05
182300 1823N 06457W 6917 02740 9520 +112 //// 306134 148 147 048 05
182330 1822N 06458W 6959 02734 //// +087 //// 307120 126 /// /// 05
182400 1821N 06459W 6966 02774 //// +094 //// 310116 120 /// /// 05
182430 1820N 06500W 6971 02808 9680 +109 +109 310114 118 117 018 00
182500 1819N 06501W 6966 02844 9698 +108 +108 311106 109 096 023 00
182530 1818N 06502W 6963 02881 9737 +111 +111 315101 104 091 015 00
182600 1817N 06503W 6969 02895 9766 +114 +114 314093 097 086 014 00
182630 1816N 06504W 6973 02911 9777 +113 +110 317086 091 082 012 00
182700 1814N 06506W 6970 02934 9783 +113 +107 320083 086 079 011 00
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5625 Postby ronyan » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:31 pm

Image

CDG showing there?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5626 Postby BYG Jacob » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:32 pm

ronyan wrote:Image

Not good.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5627 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:34 pm

ronyan wrote:https://preview.ibb.co/dpc48a/bd0.gif[/url]

CDG showing there?

Not quite CDG but it's definitely trying to round up a CMD ring. The CDO is actually colder than ever before
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#5628 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:35 pm

NE eyewall

932mb (Surface) 35° (from the NE) 139 knots (160 mph)
923mb 20° (from the NNE) 142 knots (163 mph)
921mb 25° (from the NNE) 157 knots (181 mph)
916mb 40° (from the NE) 170 knots (196 mph)
909mb 40° (from the NE) 170 knots (196 mph)
898mb 40° (from the NE) 160 knots (184 mph)
878mb 60° (from the ENE) 187 knots (215 mph)
867mb 60° (from the ENE) 177 knots (204 mph)
864mb 65° (from the ENE) 166 knots (191 mph)
860mb 65° (from the ENE) 163 knots (188 mph)
858mb 65° (from the ENE) 154 knots (177 mph)
854mb 75° (from the ENE) 162 knots (186 mph)
850mb 75° (from the ENE) 159 knots (183 mph)
827mb 85° (from the E) 161 knots (185 mph)
816mb 90° (from the E) 136 knots (157 mph)
799mb 95° (from the E) 130 knots (150 mph)
697mb 115° (from the ESE) 122 knots (140 mph)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5629 Postby Soonercane » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:35 pm

Hurrilurker wrote:Irma already ingesting dry air from the flow over Puerto Rico, I would expect the pressure to keep rising. Next, Hispaniola will certainly have a negative effect, even without direct contact.


Agreed, looks to be weakening probably a 4 now and will be a 3 on closest approach to Hispaniola. The question will be how much it can re-intensify before closest approach to Florida
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5630 Postby Otown_Wx » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:35 pm

Hello,
This is my first ever post here on Storm 2K!! Been on site since Charley here in Orlando and want to say this is the best forum out there!! Thanks for keeping us informed on whats going on as this is a dangerous situation for all here in the mainland. Wanted to ask since im no expert what type of winds would we realistically feel here in Orlando. Fox35 said at least 100mph earlier in morning. Wanted to see how valid that statement was. Keep up the good work guys doing great.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5631 Postby KWT » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:35 pm

Irma still displaying a super impressive display, amazing to see a storm north of the Caribbean be SO strong for such a long period of time.

My guess is it may struggle to stay as a 5 when it makes its closest approach to Haiti/DR as the circulation may well draw in some drier air and get its flow somewhat disrupted by Hispaniola. May not be much but even a small amount can weaken a 5.

Absolutly historic hurricane that is for sure and my guess is it will go down as one of the all timers that will be remembered (like Andrew, Katrina and Harvey) and to get TWO canes in that sort of bracket makes this also a surreal season.

PS, Irma is all day long a 5 still!
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BYG Jacob

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5632 Postby BYG Jacob » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:36 pm

Soonercane wrote:
Hurrilurker wrote:Irma already ingesting dry air from the flow over Puerto Rico, I would expect the pressure to keep rising. Next, Hispaniola will certainly have a negative effect, even without direct contact.


Agreed, looks to be weakening probably a 4 now and will be a 3 on closest approach to Hispaniola. The question will be how much it can re-intensify before closest approach to Florida

SFMR measured winds well above cat 5 strength still, and satellite of the core is improving. There isn't anything to suggest cat 4.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5633 Postby dukeblue219 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:37 pm

Soonercane wrote:
Hurrilurker wrote:Irma already ingesting dry air from the flow over Puerto Rico, I would expect the pressure to keep rising. Next, Hispaniola will certainly have a negative effect, even without direct contact.


Agreed, looks to be weakening probably a 4 now and will be a 3 on closest approach to Hispaniola. The question will be how much it can re-intensify before closest approach to Florida


There is NO evidence to support a claim that this is "probably a 4 now." The hurricane hunters are literally in the center right now and actively measuring surface winds of 147kt+.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5634 Postby KyleEverett » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:38 pm

Soonercane wrote:
Hurrilurker wrote:Irma already ingesting dry air from the flow over Puerto Rico, I would expect the pressure to keep rising. Next, Hispaniola will certainly have a negative effect, even without direct contact.


Agreed, looks to be weakening probably a 4 now and will be a 3 on closest approach to Hispaniola. The question will be how much it can re-intensify before closest approach to Florida


Please don't spread misinformation. Irma, based on recon data is still easily a cat 5 with SFMR readings of well over 150kts and her cloud tops are cooling which usually signifies steady state if not intensification.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5635 Postby Incoming! » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:38 pm

There are 3 islands in the Virgin Islands named Buck Island. http://www.vinow.com/blog/st-thomas/buc ... k-islands/
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5636 Postby BYG Jacob » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:39 pm

Image
Still a cat 5
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#5637 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:39 pm

Center dropsonde: 917 mb with 9 knots.

UZNT13 KNHC 061838
XXAA 56187 99185 70648 04384 99917 26606 03509 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85675 24435 04005 70379 21860 16512 88999 77999
31313 09608 81816
61616 AF305 1311A IRMA OB 15
62626 CENTER MBL WND 04007 AEV 33304 DLM WND 08004 917696 WL150 0
4008 080 REL 1853N06482W 181618 SPG 1853N06483W 182000 =
XXBB 56188 99185 70648 04384 00917 26606 11875 24008 22850 24435
33807 23040 44773 25059 55696 21461
21212 00917 03509 11850 04005 22696 16514
31313 09608 81816
61616 AF305 1311A IRMA OB 15
62626 CENTER MBL WND 04007 AEV 33304 DLM WND 08004 917696 WL150 0
4008 080 REL 1853N06482W 181618 SPG 1853N06483W 182000 =
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5638 Postby Buck » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:40 pm

Soonercane wrote:
Hurrilurker wrote:Irma already ingesting dry air from the flow over Puerto Rico, I would expect the pressure to keep rising. Next, Hispaniola will certainly have a negative effect, even without direct contact.


Agreed, looks to be weakening probably a 4 now and will be a 3 on closest approach to Hispaniola. The question will be how much it can re-intensify before closest approach to Florida


No way man. I'll take the data from the aircraft reconnaissance and satellite over your 'gut feelings.'
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5639 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:41 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:Image
Still a cat 5


and still 180 to 185 mph
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5640 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:41 pm

Dropsonde indicates near 7mb drop in pressure since last pass. That's an impressive intensification rate
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