ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#41 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:50 pm

Blinhart wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Look for a Special Advisory shortly - latest data supports 65 mph winds, and I think they will up the forecast intensity (maybe to cat 2?).


My question is will it become strong enough to actually go North instead of keeping doing the loop into Mexico?


Not very likely. Continental HP ridge should prevent Katia from progressing northward. It will likely get steered into Mexico.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#42 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:51 pm

Blinhart wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Look for a Special Advisory shortly - latest data supports 65 mph winds, and I think they will up the forecast intensity (maybe to cat 2?).


My question is will it become strong enough to actually go North instead of keeping doing the loop into Mexico?


Doubtful. In fact, it may just push it farther south faster due to feeling the ridge more.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Recon

#43 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:53 pm

URNT12 KNHC 061738
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132017
A. 06/17:20:10Z
B. 21 deg 46 min N
095 deg 12 min W
C. 925 mb 635 m
D. 49 kt
E. 330 deg 3 nm
F. 081 deg 51 kt
G. 336 deg 6 nm
H. EXTRAP 994 mb
I. 19 C / 769 m
J. 24 C / 830 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C5
N. 12345 / 9
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0113A KATIA OB 05
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 56 KT 196 / 6 NM 17:22:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#44 Postby Blinhart » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:54 pm

Then why would Irma be going North in a couple days if the Ridge is that strong? Just confused since it shows Katia staying in the BoC for another 3 to 4 days, that is the same time frame as Irma turning North
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Recon

#45 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:59 pm

URNT15 KNHC 061757
AF308 0113A KATIA HDOB 20 20170906
174830 2052N 09600W 9769 00299 //// +235 //// 278034 035 034 001 01
174900 2052N 09558W 9774 00294 //// +235 //// 276034 035 035 001 01
174930 2052N 09556W 9761 00304 //// +235 //// 275033 034 034 001 01
175000 2052N 09554W 9778 00290 //// +235 //// 276033 034 034 000 01
175030 2052N 09552W 9765 00300 0105 +235 +234 272033 034 033 000 01
175100 2052N 09550W 9773 00293 0105 +235 +234 273033 034 033 000 00
175130 2052N 09548W 9772 00294 0104 +235 +234 273034 035 035 000 00
175200 2052N 09546W 9762 00302 0103 +235 +234 273036 038 035 001 00
175230 2052N 09544W 9773 00291 0103 +235 +233 271037 038 036 001 00
175300 2052N 09542W 9768 00296 0102 +235 +233 270037 038 037 000 00
175330 2052N 09540W 9766 00297 0102 +235 +233 267036 037 037 001 00
175400 2052N 09538W 9758 00303 0101 +235 +233 268035 036 033 001 00
175430 2052N 09536W 9770 00293 0101 +233 //// 269035 036 035 000 05
175500 2052N 09534W 9762 00299 //// +230 //// 268037 038 034 000 01
175530 2052N 09532W 9759 00300 //// +230 //// 266036 038 035 000 01
175600 2052N 09530W 9760 00301 //// +230 //// 264034 036 034 001 01
175630 2052N 09529W 9756 00305 //// +230 //// 264037 038 036 001 01
175700 2052N 09527W 9767 00293 //// +229 //// 264036 037 036 000 05
175730 2051N 09525W 9504 00523 //// +213 //// 269036 037 /// /// 05
175800 2052N 09523W 9273 00756 //// +200 //// 271035 036 036 000 05
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#46 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:00 pm

Blinhart wrote:Then why would Irma be going North in a couple days if the Ridge is that strong? Just confused since it shows Katia staying in the BoC for another 3 to 4 days, that is the same time frame as Irma turning North


Irma isn't affected by the same ridge. The trough will be too far east to affect Katia.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#47 Postby BYG Jacob » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:08 pm

People really underestimate the GoM. This should be a hurricane shortly, and I wouldn't be shocked to see a major.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Recon

#48 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:09 pm

URNT15 KNHC 061808
AF308 0113A KATIA HDOB 21 20170906
175830 2051N 09521W 9223 00800 //// +199 //// 270032 034 036 000 01
175900 2051N 09519W 9247 00778 //// +199 //// 270032 033 035 001 01
175930 2051N 09517W 9240 00784 //// +199 //// 268031 033 036 002 01
180000 2051N 09515W 9246 00779 //// +200 //// 269031 033 034 001 01
180030 2051N 09513W 9243 00781 //// +197 //// 266029 030 033 002 01
180100 2051N 09511W 9243 00782 //// +202 //// 268030 030 034 002 01
180130 2051N 09509W 9244 00781 //// +201 //// 270029 030 034 001 01
180200 2051N 09507W 9246 00781 //// +200 //// 268029 030 030 002 01
180230 2051N 09505W 9244 00782 0110 +203 +199 267029 029 031 001 00
180300 2051N 09503W 9247 00779 0111 +200 +197 264029 029 033 001 00
180330 2051N 09501W 9244 00783 0112 +198 +195 264030 030 033 003 00
180400 2051N 09459W 9245 00780 0115 +190 //// 265030 031 033 005 01
180430 2051N 09457W 9248 00777 0112 +195 +189 266030 031 034 003 00
180500 2051N 09455W 9242 00782 0114 +188 +185 268032 032 036 005 00
180530 2051N 09453W 9240 00784 0111 +195 +183 265031 033 035 002 00
180600 2051N 09451W 9244 00780 0111 +195 +180 260031 032 035 003 00
180630 2051N 09449W 9247 00777 0110 +200 +178 256031 031 037 004 00
180700 2051N 09447W 9243 00781 0110 +200 +177 254031 032 037 003 00
180730 2051N 09445W 9244 00780 0110 +201 +176 256030 031 036 002 00
180800 2051N 09443W 9240 00785 0108 +205 +176 260031 031 034 003 00
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Recon

#49 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:19 pm

URNT15 KNHC 061818
AF308 0113A KATIA HDOB 22 20170906
180830 2051N 09441W 9246 00778 0108 +205 +176 262029 030 034 001 00
180900 2051N 09439W 9244 00780 0108 +205 +176 261028 028 034 004 00
180930 2051N 09437W 9244 00780 0107 +205 +177 258028 028 033 004 00
181000 2051N 09435W 9244 00780 0108 +205 +177 252028 029 034 004 00
181030 2051N 09433W 9244 00779 0107 +205 +178 248028 028 035 004 00
181100 2051N 09432W 9245 00777 0106 +208 +178 247029 029 035 003 00
181130 2051N 09430W 9247 00776 0107 +206 +179 248029 029 034 003 00
181200 2050N 09428W 9244 00778 0106 +205 +180 247027 028 034 002 00
181230 2050N 09426W 9246 00776 0106 +205 +181 248027 028 034 002 00
181300 2050N 09424W 9244 00778 0106 +208 +182 247028 029 034 002 00
181330 2050N 09422W 9243 00780 0105 +210 +184 245029 029 032 000 00
181400 2050N 09420W 9244 00779 0105 +210 +186 244029 029 031 001 00
181430 2050N 09418W 9244 00779 0106 +210 +189 243029 029 030 000 00
181500 2050N 09416W 9244 00779 0106 +206 +191 239030 031 031 000 00
181530 2051N 09414W 9236 00789 0108 +208 +193 240029 031 029 000 03
181600 2052N 09414W 9243 00780 0105 +210 +196 241028 029 027 001 00
181630 2053N 09415W 9244 00779 0105 +210 +199 243026 027 027 000 00
181700 2054N 09417W 9245 00777 0104 +206 +201 244026 027 026 001 00
181730 2055N 09418W 9244 00778 0104 +205 +202 242026 027 026 001 00
181800 2056N 09419W 9245 00776 0103 +205 +203 241026 026 028 001 00
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Recon Discussion

#50 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:24 pm

Yeah, about 10 mb deeper than the previous advisory with the corresponding winds.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Recon

#51 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:29 pm

URNT15 KNHC 061828
AF308 0113A KATIA HDOB 23 20170906
181830 2058N 09420W 9245 00776 0103 +204 +203 244027 027 030 004 00
181900 2059N 09421W 9244 00775 0101 +206 +203 240026 027 032 004 00
181930 2100N 09422W 9246 00773 0101 +205 +201 242026 026 032 003 00
182000 2101N 09423W 9244 00775 0100 +209 +199 243027 027 031 003 03
182030 2102N 09425W 9244 00776 0099 +210 +198 242028 028 031 003 00
182100 2103N 09426W 9243 00776 0100 +209 +196 244028 028 031 004 00
182130 2104N 09427W 9245 00773 0100 +209 +194 250028 028 031 005 00
182200 2105N 09428W 9244 00775 0100 +206 +193 251029 029 032 006 00
182230 2106N 09429W 9245 00772 0101 +202 +191 250031 031 032 006 00
182300 2107N 09430W 9243 00773 0101 +200 +189 247031 032 032 007 00
182330 2108N 09431W 9244 00773 0101 +200 +187 244030 031 030 006 00
182400 2109N 09432W 9244 00773 0101 +199 +186 242030 031 031 005 00
182430 2110N 09434W 9248 00770 0100 +200 +184 246028 030 030 005 00
182500 2111N 09435W 9245 00772 0099 +202 +183 243028 029 030 007 00
182530 2113N 09436W 9244 00771 0099 +200 +181 240029 030 033 007 00
182600 2114N 09437W 9242 00773 0100 +199 +180 240030 030 031 009 00
182630 2115N 09438W 9247 00769 0100 +197 +179 239030 031 031 010 00
182700 2116N 09439W 9250 00765 0099 +199 +178 236032 033 031 010 00
182730 2117N 09440W 9243 00770 0096 +206 +176 236034 036 029 010 00
182800 2118N 09442W 9245 00768 0097 +200 +175 237031 036 031 007 00
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Recon Discussion

#52 Postby BYG Jacob » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:30 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Yeah, about 10 mb deeper than the previous advisory with the corresponding winds.

GoM, its gonna fuel another monster.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#53 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:37 pm

13L KATIA 170906 1800 21.8N 95.2W ATL 50 994
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Recon

#54 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:39 pm

URNT15 KNHC 061838
AF308 0113A KATIA HDOB 24 20170906
182830 2119N 09443W 9247 00765 0093 +206 +175 229030 031 030 008 00
182900 2120N 09444W 9244 00766 0093 +208 +176 224033 033 031 006 00
182930 2121N 09445W 9248 00762 0094 +202 +176 227035 036 033 008 00
183000 2122N 09446W 9245 00764 0090 +208 +176 230035 035 034 007 00
183030 2123N 09447W 9245 00763 0090 +204 +175 224036 037 035 005 00
183100 2125N 09449W 9243 00764 0090 +203 +174 228038 039 033 006 00
183130 2126N 09450W 9244 00762 0088 +204 +174 231040 040 034 005 00
183200 2127N 09451W 9246 00757 0084 +205 +174 230041 041 035 006 00
183230 2128N 09452W 9244 00758 0084 +199 +173 227041 042 037 006 00
183300 2129N 09453W 9245 00754 0083 +194 +173 227042 043 036 007 00
183330 2130N 09454W 9242 00755 0078 +203 +171 228038 041 038 006 00
183400 2131N 09456W 9244 00751 0076 +202 +170 230038 039 039 007 03
183430 2132N 09457W 9246 00746 0073 +199 +170 231040 042 038 008 00
183500 2133N 09458W 9242 00747 0069 +201 +169 233043 043 036 005 00
183530 2134N 09459W 9246 00741 0066 +204 +170 236043 044 037 004 00
183600 2135N 09500W 9244 00737 0060 +201 +171 233045 045 038 004 00
183630 2137N 09501W 9247 00731 0059 +193 +172 232047 048 043 005 00
183700 2138N 09502W 9244 00731 0053 +199 +173 238050 051 045 008 00
183730 2139N 09504W 9242 00727 0050 +185 +174 244052 053 044 009 00
183800 2140N 09505W 9252 00710 0037 +196 +175 253054 056 046 012 00
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#55 Postby EquusStorm » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:40 pm

I also wouldn't be surprised to briefly see a major out of this. In fact, if so, we might well have three majors active at once in the Atlantic. That would be outright surreal, but I would not be surprised at all if it happened.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Recon

#56 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:50 pm

Hurricane Katia anyone?

URNT15 KNHC 061848
AF308 0113A KATIA HDOB 25 20170906
183830 2141N 09505W 9240 00704 0017 +209 +174 251060 062 053 004 00
183900 2143N 09505W 9240 00686 9993 +210 +175 255063 064 056 003 00
183930 2144N 09506W 9249 00647 9960 +223 +178 265045 059 056 004 00
184000 2146N 09506W 9244 00640 9943 +219 +183 277034 041 042 003 03
184030 2147N 09506W 9246 00624 9929 +220 +188 298021 029 032 002 03
184100 2149N 09505W 9241 00623 9922 +220 +192 334009 016 021 002 00
184130 2150N 09505W 9248 00617 9922 +222 +196 074007 011 022 001 00
184200 2152N 09504W 9239 00634 9932 +220 +199 107020 024 029 001 03
184230 2153N 09503W 9248 00639 9946 +220 +202 120031 034 045 005 03
184300 2154N 09502W 9216 00687 9973 +206 +202 133058 071 066 009 00
184330 2155N 09501W 9264 00665 0006 +197 +197 123060 069 056 026 03
184400 2156N 09500W 9230 00712 0025 +191 +191 130058 061 055 048 00
184430 2157N 09459W 9251 00704 0040 +184 +184 134051 055 051 039 00
184500 2158N 09457W 9244 00724 0054 +178 +178 138048 050 049 028 00
184530 2159N 09456W 9235 00743 0063 +179 +173 143043 046 037 015 00
184600 2200N 09455W 9247 00736 0063 +195 +167 146044 044 034 002 00
184630 2201N 09454W 9240 00746 0067 +201 +165 146042 043 031 001 00
184700 2202N 09452W 9244 00746 0071 +202 +166 148037 041 032 002 00
184730 2204N 09451W 9246 00748 0074 +202 +169 148034 036 029 003 00
184800 2204N 09451W 9246 00748 0075 +203 +172 152035 037 030 003 00
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#57 Postby smw1981 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:50 pm

Portastorm wrote:
smw1981 wrote:Quick question.. Why do some models have this disturbance heading north towards the central gulf coast and other models have it going west into Mexico? (And other models don't show it at all..)


I have not seen one model showing a track north towards the central Gulf coast outside of one solitary Navgem run from 12z. Which models are you talking about?


I actually saw the spaghetti plots right after I posted this question, but the day before a couple of the models had it going north and others didn't show it at all.. Anyways, got my answer.. Thanks.. :)
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Recon Discussion

#58 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:51 pm

71 kt FL and 66 kt unflagged SFMR found. She might be a cane at 5pm.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Recon

#59 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:54 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#60 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:54 pm

184300 2154N 09502W 9216 00687 9973 +206 +202 133058 071 066 009 00

71kt FL winds. 69kt SFMR. Katia almost a hurricane too.
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