ATL: IRMA - Models

[otowntiger]

Hello,
This is my first ever post here on Storm 2K!! Been on site since Charley here in Orlando and want to say this is the best forum out there!! Thanks for keeping us informed on whats going on as this is a dangerous situation for all here in the mainland. Have noticed models flip flooping everywhere but wanted to say no matter what we have to stop looking at a certain point. The storm is over 400 miles in diameter so pretty much the whole state of Florida will be impacted someway somehow. Wanted to ask since im no expert what type of winds would we realistically feel here in Orlando. Fox35 said at least 100mph earlier in morning. Wanted to see how valid that statement was. Keep up the good work guys doing great.

First welcome fellow Orlandoan! It could get interesting around here come this weekend. Orlando is taking it seriously if you can judge by the line at the gas stations and sold out water, batteries and other typical storm prep items at the stores around town. You and I know that inland areas like Orlando metro can still get quite a lot of wind (105 gusts during Charley with sustained in the 80's did more than its fair share of damage around these parts). To answer your question, of course I'm no Met either but what we get here will depend entirely upon the exact track and if the core or strongest part of the storm comes right over head - that detail wont really be known until the day of the event. They can narrow it down to about 50 miles maybe at about 24 hours, but any deviations in the actual track could make the difference between getting 50-60 mph winds to 100+. I know we aren't to look at the direct path of the storm, especially this far out, but in the case of the day of you certainly do as wobbles can make all the difference. Other factors that come into play for inland wind intensity have to do the forward speed of the storm and how well its structure holds up after traversing this far inland. Anyway I know you'd rather hear from a ProMet but hopefully I have not given you bad info. The best way to know is to turn on Tom Terry on channel 9 - he was great during Charley and tells it like it is. right now he's saying we don't know and wont know what we will get here, but will have a better idea by tomorrow.
-Otowntiger

[chris_fit]

Can someone post the latest GFS and ECMF Ensemble member runs?

[stormreader]

Euro I think is now very close. It has landfall very near the top of Fl or as I think the very uppermost keys. Think a very very slight adjust west over next 24 to 36 hours is most likely. Looking more likely no more west component at landfall, but thinking landfall just at uppermost keys.

[BensonTCwatcher]

NHC

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJD4saqWsAEFjyh.jpg

Euro

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJD4tipXcAQ_WBc.jpg

NHC

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJD4ugdW0AAOQ-H.jpg

HWRF

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJD4v1iXkAE1wNM.jpg

CMC
https://i.imgur.com/0wiFKaF.png

GEFS

https://i.imgur.com/0IrFB22.png


Make no mistake. We have a damn good consensus now.

This. This confirms hurricane plan for me no matter what. A Northbound major with the NHC plot at the space coast....means once in a while SC and more often NC gets a hurricane. Miami and South FL are now locked in the cross hairs by a lot of guidance and the forecast skill and model accuracy is plenty to knock anyone paying attention in FL off any fence they may have been on. Speed of the storm and ridge heights will dictate the affected areas hereafter up the FL coast to Savanah or maybe even NC. Of course things can change but this is not the Floyd or Andrew era, from a forecast standpoint. Folks in SC and NC are going to deal with Irma one way or another.

On a specific note- This whole group of models looks to wring a LOT of water out as it travels upstate toward western SC And NC. West of Charlotte and Columbia the elevation rises quickly and that means flash flooding with epic rain rates. The cyclonic shear will cause problems as well upstate on top of the coastal surge.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, it is really getting clearer now on a consensus that the entire Florida peninsula is likely to get severely impacted by Irma. This run has shifted right up the spine of the state.

The models have zoned in this scenario or at minimum, the East Coast scrapper all the way up the coast.

Either scenario would be catastrophic no matter how you slice it. .

It's not "right up the spine". It enters SSW of miami and exits around Daytona. If this track verifies the entire Metro SEFL is in the eastern eyewall though. It's also basically in consensus with GFS and the official NHC track.

I stated two different scenarios in that post to state either option Irma does verify it mwill bring unbelievable damage to the state. Irma would still get inland enough to devastate areas as far north inland traversing north. God Bless you. Be safe OK!

[Michele B]

It' the NAVGEM but it's up the spine of FL with a decent shift W....

Trend

Hmmm, I just can't see that happening with the way the trough seems to be digging down. Can't show it here, but when I was home for lunch, and looked at TWC's radar, I commented to hubs that the trough seemed to be VERY deep and digging in deeper and lower than it appeared they had thought....so I figured the trough was going to lift it up and away from FL.

Anybody see what I'm talking about? Just about the time Irma gets to Cuba, the trough looks like it will be down around the GoM and then swings east....like JUST ready to sweep the storm away with it.

[Steve]

Hey Voltron,

This should answer your question fully. Run this NAM 12km resolution 12Z and look up toward the Great Lakes toward the end of the run. At 72 hours the high is centered across Wisconsin. 84 Hours it's on the U.P. of Michigan. It's a progressive high in that it's moving west to east (progressing) across the northern tier. If NAM went out farther, it comes east and blocks a NE alleyway out to sea. I only suggest this for overview, not for track of Irma.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=468

It may make more sense to you to look at it in shaded colors as well. Look at the 500mb Height & Anomalies. Red is high pressure. Blue is low pressure. Watch the evolution as the Trough lifts out, and this should explain better than I can what happens. The high is basically NE/N and NW of Irma which is why it has the west hook.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=601

This is great, really good stuff. It appears that it could be overstated or off a bit so in theory depending on the blocking ridge it still could be west or east 100 miles which based on how big this storm is would not really matter from effect wise

Oh for sure. The models aren't perfect with airmasses, so the shape, size, how far they go and in what direction type of information are always a little suspect. But when most models show scenario "x" upstream, you can watch the evolution as you run models ahead of a storm. You can then further watch the satellites covering the areas you're interested in (blocking high in the Northeast, trough off the east coast or whatever) and see if the actual weather is behaving as the modeling suggested. This isn't a particularly big high. But it reminds me of 2005 with the almost "square shaped" highs that kept coming off the mid-Atlantic states. This one is farther north than most of the summer highs that came off the US East Coast in 2005. Consequently, Irma is able to get possibly to Kentucky or even southern Indiana before turning ENE and going out. It may only be as far north as North Carolina, but that's still a good ways inland from a hit near Miami. Eventually the energy gets caught up in the "westerlies" which is the W-E flow across the horse latitudes and north. Again, hope it helps. I'm not a scientist at all, so sorry if this came across as too basic.

[caneseddy]

Oh my lord ....that literally devastates all the metro area and western suburbs in South Florida....I'm just in awe at that graphic...hopefully that particular track does not come to fruition, but I'm not as very hopeful.

[MatthewsRevenge]

It's like what y'all said when models trended east that Euro would go the same way, Euro is now going the same way GFS and UK is going. Simple, right?

[canetracker]

Can someone post the latest GFS and ECMF Ensemble member runs?

<<<This is 00z, 12z not available yet
<<<12z

[pokkeherrie]

Not for the faint-hearted.

Indeed.

[Steve]

Just when we were getting a consensus the Euro goes and throws a wrench in things.

We have a pretty good consensus...It just isn't the consensus that any of us in SE Florida want. On 12z the GFS, HMON, UKMET, HWRF, CMC, and now Euro have all trended to the west pretty much right on, just inland, or just off the coast of SE Florida. It probably won't but I hope this puts away the foolishness of local media outlets jumping on one model run and declaring that we're in the clear. Follow the NHC...They're the best in the business.

Call them out on it on their blogs. Demand better! They will read it and either take you seriously and offer better explanations in the future or play teaser to a base of ignoramuses. That's all you can do. NHC is the best and the one true authority. Once in a while they get behind a model on verification, but they'll always explain changes in the storm-specific Discussions.

[tolakram]

12z GEFS

[Michele B]

Not for the faint-hearted.

The only criticism I would make about this graphic is that the eye is way too small.

The area they are depicting as the eye is only about 8-10 miles. The eye itself is more like 30-40 miles.

[Jevo]

Euro exists to the Atlantic at around St. Augustine at 120 HRS. That's a lot of inland real estate it goes over.

Edit: More like Daytona.

Most of that inland is hot swamp.. Florida does little in the way of weakening well defined systems.

[Evil Jeremy]

Hmmm, I just can't see that happening with the way the trough seems to be digging down. Can't show it here, but when I was home for lunch, and looked at TWC's radar, I commented to hubs that the trough seemed to be VERY deep and digging in deeper and lower than it appeared they had thought....so I figured the trough was going to lift it up and away from FL.

Anybody see what I'm talking about? Just about the time Irma gets to Cuba, the trough looks like it will be down around the GoM and then swings east....like JUST ready to sweep the storm away with it.

Listen to the NHC. Prepare for a disaster. Don't wait on a magic trough to redirect Irma at the last minute. NHC currently forecasts a major hurricane impacting South Florida in 4 days time. That is the bottom line.

[gatorcane]

18Z statistical guidance minus Euro and ensembles:

[Michele B]

Any professional estimates of wind speeds in Hillsborough County based on the Spine/East Coast track?

Can't speak for speed, but mostly out of the north, which is an off-shore flow, good for Tampa.

[sma10]

I ask this question in all sincerity: can anyone recall a 96hr (4 day) forecast with 0 mile error? The consensus reached this afternoon is horrifying; and as a SE Florida resident, at this point I'd take a measly 50 mile error. Sure 50 miles one way or the other it's still going to be bad, but I'm looking at the slightest hope that this monstrous core gets away from the Metro area.

Grasping at straws here.

[Voltron]

So this is going up the East Coast of FL then depending on when it turns north is what happens in GA/SC/NC. I am so confused on all of this, this is a very hard and complex track. It is almost better based on all the models whether inland or on the coast in all areas to just be prepared due to the size? Thoughts? I know this is model related but.....