ATL: IRMA - Models

[RL3AO]

As a whole, the 12Z Euro ensembles shifted a touch west through 5 days. Most are clustered on FL and the FL keys. Numerous ensemble members hit Cuba before heading into the SE Gulf.

Hope the talk this morning of the "eastward shift" hasn't put people at ease. Miami will be extremely lucky to have the eye miss by 25 miles. More likely it will be closer or make landfall.

[stormreader]

As a whole, the 12Z Euro ensembles shifted a touch west through 5 days. Most are clustered on FL and the FL keys. Numerous ensemble members hit Cuba before heading into the SE Gulf.

Still thinking those uppermost keys, or maybe just a tad west of current Euro, have to be really considered now.

[wayoutfront]

Thanks for all the info ...I have been an avid lurker for I think 13 years ..

I have to admit I got the boot for arguing with someone a long time ago in a an off topic topic

But still have found the model thread at times to be very informative and have learned from some really informed people over the years in the model threads

That being said ..Is this the model thread or the discussion forum? ....I can't tell the difference anymore

It's getting harder and harder to find the nuggets of wisdom in the waterfall of off topic topics and people -removed- and dog whistling
With all sincerity
Thanks For the last decade of free education

Ignore the typos ..I stink at the tiny phone keypad

[SootyTern]

Those ensembles show a marked shift back to a threat centered very near Miami, FL. They are more consolidated now, so I think GFS is honing in. For all the people trying to scoff at this down in FL (the Matthew 2, blah blah blah folks), maybe they'll get a wakeup call in this or succeeding runs? Some people I know, know to check with me for advice because they know I am always ahead of the curve (props to S2K for that). Other people believe what they hear or panic off of Facebook spaghetti plots or whatever. 12Z trends so far are definitely not good for SE FL. And as I said earlier, we're now getting to the point with the models where they will become more accurate with every 6 or 12 hour increment. Let people squawk and say or post what they want on social media. Luckily all of us already know better.

FWIW, 12Z NAVGEM is filling in. 96 hours has it right over Islamorada and heading for the Everglades which it hits from the South. It stays in Florida all the way to 114 hours where the eastern eyewall is coming back offshore around New Smyrna Beach. This is a bad track for metro Orlando where most of the metro should probably expect Cat 1 at a minimum (though NAVGEM is eh at best). 120 Hours it's right over Jacksonville Beach with a little bit over 1/2 of the eye offshore. That's a good 6 hour ride along the coast with the north, west and east sides of the eyewall.

It pulls back in on the GA Coast for good.

I have been reading your posts for a long time and find them exceptional; I appreciate that you are very knowledgeable and level-headed. Had 8 hours off from existential anxiety because I was away from the computer thinking we were going to get backside. It's pretty messed up to be hoping this is 'only' as bad as Andrew, not worse in some way we can't conceive of yet. That is what is gnawing away at me during moments when I'm not busy getting stuff done. Thanks for all your posts over the years!

[jlauderdal]

As a whole, the 12Z Euro ensembles shifted a touch west through 5 days. Most are clustered on FL and the FL keys. Numerous ensemble members hit Cuba before heading into the SE Gulf.

Hope the talk this morning of the "eastward shift" hasn't put people at ease. Miami will be extremely lucky to have the eye miss by 25 miles. More likely it will be closer or make landfall.

for sure, models really honing on a solution and with nhc expertise fine tuning we will have a very good track today at 5, anyone 75 miles either side of that track should expect a 3+ on the doorstep...sofla will be very lucky to have this thing stay east of the beaches, that would be a huge win at this point and is possible...maybe it will bounce off the coast like we have seen other systems do, unlikely but we have seen it

[NDG]

One more look at the 12z Euro, simulated radar loop.

[stormreader]

One more look at the 12z Euro, simulated radar loop.

I'll bet that is very close to "it". Perhaps, a very slight shift west.

[norva]

One more look at the 12z Euro, simulated radar loop.

I'll bet that is very close to "it". Perhaps, a very slight shift west.

That would get that eye pretty darn close to Orlando, eek.

[KWT]

As a whole, the 12Z Euro ensembles shifted a touch west through 5 days. Most are clustered on FL and the FL keys. Numerous ensemble members hit Cuba before heading into the SE Gulf.

Whatever situation happens now Irma is going to be a disaster, if it does hit Cuba's north coast its going to cause untold damage, and probably still be a major at the other end of it heading towards Florida, if it misses Cuba then the set-up aloft combined with exceptional heat content is going to cause the pressure to drop away to probably near record levels.

[Aric Dunn]

That is some very tight clustering right now..]

[Hurricaneman]

That is some very tight clustering right now..]

Any west shifts would be bad for the entire state

[South Texas Storms]

As a whole, the 12Z Euro ensembles shifted a touch west through 5 days. Most are clustered on FL and the FL keys. Numerous ensemble members hit Cuba before heading into the SE Gulf.

Yep I think the Euro and its ensembles are starting to lock in on a landfall very close to south Florida. Confidence in the track forecast has slightly increased today.

[Hurricane Andrew]

As a whole, the 12Z Euro ensembles shifted a touch west through 5 days. Most are clustered on FL and the FL keys. Numerous ensemble members hit Cuba before heading into the SE Gulf.

Yep I think the Euro and its ensembles are starting to lock in on a landfall very close to south Florida. Confidence in the track forecast has slightly increased today.

NE quad over Miami-Dade? Wow. Gusts would be even higher in high-rises, right?

[forecasterjack]

ECMWF simulated IR showing the eye of Irma making landfall just S of Miami on Sunday: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/72 ... 1800z.html

[wayoutfront]

How does this S to N direction effect the Slosh Models ?

[BucMan2]

Aric- You see any way of a more westerly component allowing Irma to go up the spine of the state?

[crimi481]

If latest models show trough weak and lifting out, would that cause Irma to slow down it forward speed as it moves north up Florida? What is projected speed?

[Aric Dunn]

Aric- You see any way of a more westerly component allowing Irma to go up the spine of the state?

only if some down stream feature the model are seeing does not pan out .

[Steve]

As a whole, the 12Z Euro ensembles shifted a touch west through 5 days. Most are clustered on FL and the FL keys. Numerous ensemble members hit Cuba before heading into the SE Gulf.

Hope the talk this morning of the "eastward shift" hasn't put people at ease. Miami will be extremely lucky to have the eye miss by 25 miles. More likely it will be closer or make landfall.

According to some posters, some TV Mets and social media posters have used that as their validation for apathy earlier today.

Localized conditions can be sketchy on the global and even mesoscale models. But it's possible that a farther shift west toward the keys would cut back on the potential structural damage in Miami/Miami Beach. The Everglades and Big Cypress won't really knock anything back substantially, but every mile inland does absorb some of the energy. I'm not wishing or hoping for a track farther west, but a hit on the SW Tip of FL might be slightly better than a hit on the southern tip or over on the SE Coast as it relates to population centers and specifically Miami up to West Palm Beach. Cat 2/3 effects are generally preferable to Cat 4/5 where you jump from extensive to catastrophic structural damage. Consider that Florida is less than 100 miles across at Miami's latitude and roughly about 110 miles from Hollywood across to Naples. Depending on the size of the eye and inner core at landfall, at some point west things start improving for the SE FL Coast.

What's been concerning to me is intensification in the FL Straits. Many models have shown some of the lowest pressures in the 4 day period on approach to FL Landfall. How big and how wide the inner bands go will make a difference if it's deepening. Consider metro Miami has roughly 5 million people. Naples has probably 35,000 in that general area. Ft. Meyers/Cape Coral close to 300k and maybe 700-800k people up toward Sarasota which I think is a bit far north and west for landfall but is just being used for comparison purposes. There's a lot of high end real estate on both sides of the state, but there is substantially more on the SE Coast than the SW Coast.

[Steve]

Those ensembles show a marked shift back to a threat centered very near Miami, FL. They are more consolidated now, so I think GFS is honing in. For all the people trying to scoff at this down in FL (the Matthew 2, blah blah blah folks), maybe they'll get a wakeup call in this or succeeding runs? Some people I know, know to check with me for advice because they know I am always ahead of the curve (props to S2K for that). Other people believe what they hear or panic off of Facebook spaghetti plots or whatever. 12Z trends so far are definitely not good for SE FL. And as I said earlier, we're now getting to the point with the models where they will become more accurate with every 6 or 12 hour increment. Let people squawk and say or post what they want on social media. Luckily all of us already know better.

FWIW, 12Z NAVGEM is filling in. 96 hours has it right over Islamorada and heading for the Everglades which it hits from the South. It stays in Florida all the way to 114 hours where the eastern eyewall is coming back offshore around New Smyrna Beach. This is a bad track for metro Orlando where most of the metro should probably expect Cat 1 at a minimum (though NAVGEM is eh at best). 120 Hours it's right over Jacksonville Beach with a little bit over 1/2 of the eye offshore. That's a good 6 hour ride along the coast with the north, west and east sides of the eyewall.

It pulls back in on the GA Coast for good.

I have been reading your posts for a long time and find them exceptional; I appreciate that you are very knowledgeable and level-headed. Had 8 hours off from existential anxiety because I was away from the computer thinking we were going to get backside. It's pretty messed up to be hoping this is 'only' as bad as Andrew, not worse in some way we can't conceive of yet. That is what is gnawing away at me during moments when I'm not busy getting stuff done. Thanks for all your posts over the years!

Thanks Sooty. I'm not all that, but I learned from some of the best on CFHC and here on Storm2k. Maybe once in a while I get something right. I'm just an enthusiast like everyone else here who isn't a scientist or pro/degreed met and still learn lots of new things every year. My main thing is that I go overboard trying to be objective when I post here. Sometimes I'll purposely ignore a model hit to LA simply because I don't want to get carried away on a tangent. So I try to make it a point to do whatever is the opposite of -removed- as often as possible and put myself in other people's shoes.

I wish you guys well in Homestead. Kinda seeming like ground zero or very close to it based on the 12Z model aggregate. Hang in there!