ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#5801 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:01 pm

URNT15 KNHC 062056
AF305 1311A IRMA HDOB 51 20170906
204730 1939N 06612W 6966 03096 9988 +092 +083 051075 079 049 007 00
204800 1942N 06614W 6967 03102 9999 +086 +086 051074 078 048 008 03
204830 1943N 06615W 6970 03102 9996 +091 +087 049065 070 047 007 03
204900 1944N 06617W 6970 03101 9993 +094 +086 051058 065 044 008 00
204930 1945N 06618W 6968 03107 0001 +091 +083 047054 056 045 009 00
205000 1947N 06619W 6967 03109 0002 +093 +071 046054 055 045 010 03
205030 1948N 06621W 6965 03115 0007 +090 +071 046055 055 045 009 03
205100 1949N 06622W 6967 03113 9998 +100 +065 048055 055 045 009 00
205130 1950N 06623W 6967 03116 9998 +102 +064 048055 056 043 010 03
205200 1951N 06625W 6969 03115 0004 +100 +065 050054 056 043 010 00
205230 1953N 06626W 6966 03121 0005 +100 +063 052055 056 044 005 00
205300 1954N 06627W 6969 03121 0009 +100 +066 052054 055 045 004 00
205330 1955N 06629W 6966 03126 0009 +102 +065 053054 054 045 005 00
205400 1956N 06630W 6969 03126 0012 +100 +064 052054 055 045 005 00
205430 1958N 06631W 6963 03132 0013 +101 +066 054055 056 046 004 00
205500 1959N 06633W 6969 03129 0016 +100 +067 053057 057 046 003 00
205530 2000N 06634W 6967 03134 0018 +100 +066 055055 056 044 003 00
205600 2001N 06635W 6958 03143 0022 +094 +081 057058 061 043 005 05
205630 2002N 06637W 6963 03141 0031 +093 +066 053053 058 /// /// 05
205700 2001N 06639W 6965 03138 0031 +093 +070 047051 052 043 004 03
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5802 Postby tgenius » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:01 pm

ronjon wrote:Wow surprised NHC didn't post hurricane watches for south Florida at 5 pm - especially with the great model consensus.


I wouldn't be surprised if they come up at 11pm, or at the absolute latest, 5am tomorrow morning.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5803 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:02 pm

I don't think any hurricanes have really made landfall in Georgia in the past century except for Hurricane David. Depending on if Irma decides to ride up Florida, or pop out and then landfall there. Would be absolutely horrible for them if it happened.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#5804 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:02 pm

SE eyewall drop

942mb (Surface) Unavailable
911mb 195° (from the SSW) 160 knots (184 mph)
907mb 175° (from the S) 161 knots (185 mph)
888mb 185° (from the S) 166 knots (191 mph)
874mb 195° (from the SSW) 151 knots (174 mph)
865mb 200° (from the SSW) 154 knots (177 mph)
859mb 200° (from the SSW) 143 knots (165 mph)
850mb 200° (from the SSW) 150 knots (173 mph)
825mb 200° (from the SSW) 151 knots (174 mph)
801mb 210° (from the SSW) 123 knots (142 mph)
758mb 215° (from the SW) 148 knots (170 mph)
697mb 225° (from the SW) 134 knots (154 mph)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5805 Postby jonj2040 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:02 pm

Hi guys I'm usually an observer in this forum however with the current situation unfolding I just need a second opinion. I live about 14 miles inland in malabar florida in a brick house with only 1 tree in the yard normally I would think id be okay to bunker down but the latest euro showed the western eyewall running the length of brevard county.
My parents have a house in jacksonville that I could evac to. Do you think this is a hands down no questions evac situation?
Thank you for the time and advice I greatly appreciate it and I fully understand the disclaimer and that these will mostly be amateur opinions. Thank you
Last edited by jonj2040 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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I am just an amateur and a "noob" at that so any speculations that I have made are just that, uneducated speculations. Please refer to the NHC for accurate information.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5806 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:03 pm

The storm is clearly on the right side of the path. It has moved quite a bit north so far. What do the northern models do? :?:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#5807 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:04 pm

Center drop: 915 mbar with 10 knots, confirms the 914 mb which the NHC put into the advisory.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5808 Postby Exalt » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:04 pm

jonj2040 wrote:Hi guys I'm usually an observer in this forum however with the current situation unfolding I just need a second opinion. I live about 30 miles inland in malabar florida in a brick house with only 1 tree in the yard normally I would think id be okay to bunker down but the latest euro showed the western eyewall running the length of brevard county.
My parents have a house in jacksonville that I could evac to. Do you think this is a hands down no questions evac situation?
Thank you for the time and advice I greatly appreciate it and I fully understand the disclaimer and that these will mostly be amateur opinions. Thank you


If you have a place in Jacksonville to go to, no question about it LEAVE and go there. You might (and probably will) still get hit, but to likely a lesser degree.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5809 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:05 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:The storm is clearly on the right side of the path. It has moved quite a bit north so far. What do the northern models do? :?:


What? I don't see that at all.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5810 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:05 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:I just saw online somewhere that this is the longest stretch of time an Atlantic storm has maintained a Cat 5 intensity


When asked earlier:


Extratropical94 wrote:
WeatherGuesser wrote:No answer on the other thread, so ....

ATL record for continuous duration as Cat 5 belongs to ... ?


1932 Cuba hurricane, 78 hours.

Or 1979 David and 1998 Mitch with 42 hours each, if we only count storms from the satellite era.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_C ... hurricanes
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5811 Postby forecasterjack » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:10 pm

GOES16 shows Irma looking as strong as ever. https://weather.us/satellite/623-w-130- ... .html#play click the map to zoom in, see WV/visible data via menus to the left of the image.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#5812 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:10 pm

Mission over

URNT15 KNHC 062107
AF305 1311A IRMA HDOB 52 20170906
205730 1959N 06640W 6965 03136 0023 +099 +069 044052 053 044 004 00
205800 1957N 06641W 6968 03131 0018 +100 +060 041055 055 043 004 00
205830 1955N 06642W 6917 03186 0010 +098 +068 043056 057 044 003 03
205900 1953N 06644W 6691 03459 0010 +076 +064 045058 059 /// /// 03
205930 1952N 06645W 6434 03780 0010 +058 +038 037054 057 /// /// 03
210000 1950N 06646W 6182 04108 0007 +039 +024 028050 051 /// /// 03
210030 1948N 06648W 5970 04391 0002 +024 +012 029050 052 /// /// 03
210100 1946N 06649W 5746 04698 //// +004 //// 030048 049 /// /// 05
210130 1944N 06650W 5590 04925 9984 -000 -004 039054 057 042 003 00
210200 1943N 06652W 5395 05200 0195 -012 //// 038046 056 042 003 05
210230 1941N 06653W 5188 05516 0217 -023 -023 035040 041 041 005 00
210300 1939N 06655W 5032 05760 0234 -033 //// 034040 041 041 005 05
210330 1937N 06656W 4881 06000 0251 -045 //// 035045 048 /// /// 05
210400 1935N 06657W 4771 06184 0266 -056 -058 040047 048 042 002 00
210430 1933N 06659W 4674 06344 0276 -065 -069 042046 047 040 002 00
210500 1931N 06700W 4580 06501 0286 -073 -079 042043 044 042 002 00
210530 1930N 06702W 4485 06662 0296 -082 -087 039034 041 042 002 00
210600 1928N 06703W 4395 06819 0307 -090 -099 040034 034 042 002 00
210630 1926N 06705W 4309 06972 0317 -099 -106 039034 035 041 002 00
210700 1924N 06706W 4225 07124 0328 -107 -114 038034 035 041 002 00
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#5813 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:11 pm

Eye getting smaller.

URNT12 KNHC 062054
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 06/20:17:10Z
B. 18 deg 43 min N
065 deg 13 min W
C. 700 mb 2356 m
D. 151 kt
E. 130 deg 10 nm
F. 227 deg 134 kt
G. 130 deg 9 nm
H. 915 mb
I. 10 C / 3039 m
J. 21 C / 3045 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C16
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1311A IRMA OB 18
MAX FL WIND 161 KT 090 / 31 NM 18:09:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 157 KT 316 / 16 NM 20:28:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 210 / 10 KT
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 012 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5814 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:11 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Three hurricanes spinning simultaneously in the Atlantic right now and maybe 3 majors soon.

Cannot believe I'm seeing this.

Image



Katia is not forecast to be a major.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5815 Postby storm_in_a_teacup » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:11 pm

KBBOCA wrote:
NDG wrote:Irma's eye now over Spanish Town, British Virgin Islands.

Image


It's almost as if Irma were willfully trying to take a path through the Northern Leewards / Virgin Islands to hit the most islands. A few miles to the north and she could have missed a direct hit on any, but Barbuda, St. Barts, St. Maarten, Anguilla, Virgin Gorda... all very much direct hits. Terrible.


Eh. As the sole "spokescane" on this site (oh god I am so horrible) I have my doubts whether she would really be so happy to hit land, even if they're just islands. I'm mostly a go with the (steering) flow kind of girl, and I feel most of them are the same.

...She still isn't going to mess around though, for she is innocent solely for being a vortex without free will.
There is beauty in innocence, but there also is nothing more terrifying than innocence.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5816 Postby KBBOCA » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:11 pm

I haven't checked the latest forecast cone, but the way the wind probabilities were looking earlier today, this latest tweet from Ryan Maue isn't a big surprise. Terrible scenario, and could surprise many who may focus too much on the landfall point and the track of the center...

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905538337963945984


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5817 Postby BYG Jacob » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:13 pm

SoupBone wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Three hurricanes spinning simultaneously in the Atlantic right now and maybe 3 majors soon.

Cannot believe I'm seeing this.

Image



Katia is not forecast to be a major.

She's got multiple days over the GoM, don't bet against it.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5818 Postby KBBOCA » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:16 pm

Here's a summary of pressure trends:

 https://twitter.com/AlexJLamers/status/905535738212753408


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5819 Postby KBBOCA » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:18 pm

Here's a tweet confirming massive damage in Barbuda, but thankfully so far only 1 reported fatality there.

 https://twitter.com/EUStormMap/status/905532695991681024




I believe elsewhere I saw reports of 2 fatalities on St. Barts / St. Maarten
Last edited by KBBOCA on Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5820 Postby La Sirena » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:19 pm

Just a note of concern for Ms Bee in St Maarten and Gusty Wind in Guadeloupe....I know that they probably have no comms, electricity, etc. but hoping they fared the storm.
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