ATL: IRMA - Models

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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8461 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:39 pm

18z GFS hour 36:

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8462 Postby MatthewsRevenge » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:40 pm

Heading near Bahamas but the NW trek still similar to last run, I think:

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8463 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:40 pm

18z GFS now bit north east vs 12z

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8464 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:41 pm

18z GFS hour 42:

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8465 Postby MatthewsRevenge » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:42 pm

Eye right at southern Bahamas, hr. 42.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8466 Postby wzrgirl1 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:42 pm

The 96 hour forecast has the eye going right over my house at 145 mph. I am so scared.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8467 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:43 pm

Further N and E - Will the tight consensus end once it get to FL?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8468 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:43 pm

18z GFS hour 48:

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8469 Postby MatthewsRevenge » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:44 pm

Looks like Irma keeps moving west and northwest? Maybe Katia has something to do with it being more NE this run?
Last edited by MatthewsRevenge on Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8470 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:44 pm

@20-25 mile difference between 12/18z
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8471 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:45 pm

18z GFS trend @ hour 48:

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8472 Postby p1nheadlarry » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:46 pm

MatthewsRevenge wrote:Looks like Irma keeps moving west and northwest? Maybe Katia has something to do with it?


Could be wrong, but I think a storm as strong as Irma is much more sensitive to upper level steering than a Cat-1 several hundreds of miles away.

I'll leave it there since this is indeed the model discussion.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8473 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:47 pm

18z GFS 00->48:

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8474 Postby Bamagirl2408 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:48 pm

[quote="Kingarabian"]18z GFS trend @ hour 48:

Is it faster? It is comparing 12z 54 hr to 18z 48 hr. I think....
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8475 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:49 pm

18z GFS hour 54:

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8476 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:50 pm

18z GFS similar to the 06z and 00z runs:

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8477 Postby MatthewsRevenge » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:50 pm

Hmm, looks like SW last few hours.

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Last edited by MatthewsRevenge on Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8478 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:51 pm

18z GFS hour 60->66:

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8479 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:51 pm

Looks pretty much the same as the 06z run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8480 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:52 pm

18z GFS hour 72:

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