ATL: IRMA - Models

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chris_fit
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8521 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:30 pm

18Z HWRF Running - Lets see if it trends back towards the 18Z GFS
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8522 Postby Kingslayer1254 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:30 pm

Vdogg wrote:Looking at Satellite there is definitely an increased Northerly component to Irma's motion. The eye is passing well north of Puerto Rico. Perhaps this is why GFS was slightly east on this run.


I too noticed a hair of uptick on the direction while passing over PR. Hope that continues and then the turn...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8523 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:31 pm

Brutal hit for the GA and SC Coasts at +/-900mb. That's Cat 5 all the way. I don't buy it, but what I do get from the 18z GFS is even a smaller window of opportunity for personal action. It really looks like about 70 hours in S FL which would be midday Saturday. Y'all be sure to get done what you need to do and check on the elderly for their needs. Pets matter too, so please consider thier needs and their instinctive heightened sensitivity to the pressure falls. I had a good long model post going on my other phone before it died. I was thinking the GFS moving a little farther north would hook late, intensify in the straits and come up. That's not what happened. I think it's slightly too far to the east. Time to check everything else and get a nap in.
Last edited by Steve on Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8524 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:32 pm

I'd ignore the GFS. It consistently keeps having to correct its north bias. Unless the vast majority of the models shift east I wouldn't buy into it for now.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8525 Postby brghteys1216 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:34 pm

Don't forget the east bias with Matthew at 5 days out. UK Met was creepily accurate.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8526 Postby Ken711 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:35 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
Ken711 wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:Here’s the thing with Irma. Where that north turn happens will be critical, and despite how good the Euro and other models may be, they don’t have the accuracy at this range to nail down something that 20-40 miles is the difference between landfall or the east coast of Florida. Either way, it looks like Miami and surrounding areas will see winds gusting well over 100mph and I hope people take it seriously. We probably won’t know about the north turn until it actually happens...


For someone like me with no meteorological knowledge, what is the feature that makes the models so confident a turn will occur within that area? Thanks


Part of an upper-level trough currently centered near Minnesota.


Is there any chance this misses in timing or have they been constantly taking weather measurements?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8527 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:36 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:I'd ignore the GFS. It consistently keeps having to correct its north bias. Unless the vast majority of the models shift east I wouldn't buy into it for now.


The models will fluctuate 20-30 miles one way or another each run I would imagine..overall not much of a change with the 18z GFS. If you correct for its right bias then you would have a Florida landfall most likely.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8528 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:37 pm

Keep in mind everyone the Euro has under performed when it comes to Iram's depth/pressure. This is important as a deeper system will be more vertically developed and as such steered by higher level features, which can make a major difference track wise. I'm not saying the GFS will be right, only that is something to keep in mind.
Last edited by Hybridstorm_November2001 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8529 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:37 pm

I might have missed a page but JMA which has been a bit of a western outlier now just comes up the whole state of FL instead of getting to the eastern Gulf. It brings the Canadian high farther south, and it's already farther west than most models which forces the final left hook over to Arkansas instead of north or northeast of their like most of the other models have shown once inland.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8530 Postby Cflstorm » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:38 pm

What time does the UKMET run and how often does it run? Where is the best place to find past runs?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8531 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:40 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:Keep in mind everyone the Euro has under performed when it comes to Iram's depth/pressure. This is important as a deeper system will be more vertically developed and as such steered by higher level features, which can make a major difference track wise. I'm not saying the GFS will be right, only that is something to keep in mind.

Given that the Euro has been the best performing track model with Irma by a long shot, I'm not sure how important that is.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8532 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:41 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:Keep in mind everyone the Euro has under performed when it comes to Iram's depth/pressure. This is important as a deeper system will be more vertically developed and as such steered by higher level features, which can make a major difference track wise. I'm not saying the GFS will be right, only that is something to keep in mind.

Given that the Euro has been the best performing track model with Irma by a long shot, I'm not sure how important that is.


It could become very important soon, once the trough comes into play this weekend. We'll soon see.
Last edited by Hybridstorm_November2001 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8533 Postby xironman » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:41 pm

Steve wrote:Brutal hit for the GA and SC Coasts at +/-900mb. That's Cat 5 all the way. I don't buy it, but what I do get from the 18z GFS is even a smaller window of opportunity for personal action. It really looks like about 70 hours which would be midday Saturday. Y'all be sure to get done what you need to do and check on the elderly for their needs. Pets matter too, so please consider thier needs and their instinctive heightened sensitivity to the pressure falls. I had a good long model post going on my other phone before it died. I was thinking the GFS moving a little farther north would hook late, intensify in the straits and come up. That's not what happened. I think it's slightly too far to the east. Time to check everything else and get a nap in.


Why not, the tropical heat potential is there all the way, are you thinking the expected shear will degrade it?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8534 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:43 pm

HMON is slightly N...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8535 Postby rockyman » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:43 pm

1 week ago, the 12z Euro had a major hurricane near the northern coast of Puerto Rico, moving toward south Florida.

1 week ago, the 18z GFS had a major hurricane several hundred miles NE of Puerto Rico, moving toward Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8536 Postby birddogsc » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:44 pm

Vdogg wrote:That's the 4th consecutive model run with a landfall in SC. Hopefully they are paying attention to this.


I can tell you that the state is really paying attention to the model runs and has already activated several planning cells with more coming online tomorrow.

The thing about all these runs are that they are ending up in a fairly narrow band from about Savannah to below Charleston.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8537 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:44 pm

Everyone while model watching is interesting at times when in doubt always defer to the NHC track. Their track is typically more accurate than any one model. This is my Hurricane Rule of Thumb No. 1
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8538 Postby bamajammer4eva » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:47 pm

What's with the more NW movement after landfall? I noticed many Euro ensembles had the same thing. Is there any chance of that happening further south and going inland somewhere along the FL cost?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8539 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:47 pm

No (response to xironman). I think land interaction on Florida will degrade it. However, Bahamas to NC in the SW Atlantic has been a hot spot for several years in a row as I'm sure it often is in the warm AMO periods. I could see it intensifying and hitting as a 3 or 4 but 900mb in that GFS run assumes it stays over the water. I'd buy 930ish which is devastating enough for sure. NAVGEM is initialized, CMC should be rolling shortly and HWRF looks like it is going to do a number on at least the southern Bahamas which many of us were outlining mid last week as the #1 concern. Looks really bad so far on the HWRF run, like a freight train coming.
Last edited by Steve on Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8540 Postby MatthewsRevenge » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:49 pm

I can definitely see some weakening of Irma when it gets to around Florida. Can't see it retaining their strength by the time it reaches SC.
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