ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

Look at tthat donut of -80 degree tops.. have not seen that until now.. crazy..

Probably trying for the 200 mph winds now.

Think CDG = 200mph winds. We'll see soon.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I just saw online somewhere that this is the longest stretch of time an Atlantic storm has maintained a Cat 5 intensity

When asked earlier:

No answer on the other thread, so ....

ATL record for continuous duration as Cat 5 belongs to ... ?

1932 Cuba hurricane, 78 hours.

Or 1979 David and 1998 Mitch with 42 hours each, if we only count storms from the satellite era.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_C ... hurricanes

I need to clarify...longest duration with 180+ mph winds...but at 36 hours @ 7:45p (the NHC upgraded to Cat 5 7:45 am sept 5) its making a run at 42hrs, at 11pm adv it will pass that if it is still a cat5
edit (it gets one more hour since that was AST)

[MGC]

Looks like concentric eyewall currently as Irma passes to the NE of PR. Lets watch and see if the inner eyewall erodes and the outer eyewall begins to contract. Don't get to see an EWRC on radar very often......MGC

[1900hurricane]

I'm going to guess this eyewall replacement cycle will be a more normal one, unlike yesterday. San Juan radar already shows it extending up to the higher tilts. We'll see though, Irma has been good at making me look foolish thus far.

[TheStormExpert]

For a non-annular TC Irma is surely quite impressive for holding its strong Cat.5 intensity for so long.

[KBBOCA]

Bryan Norcross's take on the threat to Florida:

 https://twitter.com/TWCBryan/status/905558335709212673




Here's an excerpt:

The models have shifted a bit west today, which makes NO difference in the forecast. These small differences are expected, and they are all well within the average errors at this time frame.

The bottom line is: Florida is under an extreme hurricane threat. The threat is greater than it was three days before Hurricane Andrew because this storm is much bigger across, and more cities have to potential to be affected. We have to respond to the threat. Absolutely full hurricane preparations are required now.

The timing is the same: Noticeably increased winds in South Florida and the Keys by Saturday morning, increasing and moving north during the day. The worst of the storm arrives early Sunday and moves up the state through the day. The storm is expected to be moving slowly on Saturday, but accelerating as it moves to the north.

We need to prepare for life-threatening conditions. Basic hurricane preps need to be undertaken in the entire peninsula and preps for an extreme hurricane in South Florida, the Keys, and anywhere local officials are discussing or ordering evacuations.

Norcross then goes on to talk specific prep ideas...

Norcross earned his stripes in Andrew, and at least among FL old-timers, when he talks many listen. I hope he will get people's attention with this post.

[tropicwatch]

Pretty wild looking at 2230Z.

[Exalt]

Pretty wild looking at 2230Z.

Look at that outer eyewall, wonder how it'll handle it..

[Hurricaneman]

Pretty wild looking at 2230Z.

Look at that outer eyewall, wonder how it'll handle it..

Inner eye wall starting to erode on the east side

[KBBOCA]

Before & After pic of Paraquita bay - aka Hurricane Hole - on Tortola

 https://twitter.com/jeremyskitchen/status/905493723190059008




Note: there's no clear source for the pic. The guy tweeting it said he found it online, so this is not necessarily verified. But plausible, certainly, given that Tortola took a direct hit.

[Kazmit]

Tons and tons of charter boats against the rocks in Tortola. Horrible sight.

[Kingarabian]

Before & After pic of Paraquita bay - aka Hurricane Hole - on Tortola

 https://twitter.com/jeremyskitchen/status/905493723190059008

Whose idea was it to leave all those expensive ships in the bay?!

[Extratropical94]

I just saw online somewhere that this is the longest stretch of time an Atlantic storm has maintained a Cat 5 intensity

When asked earlier:

1932 Cuba hurricane, 78 hours.

Or 1979 David and 1998 Mitch with 42 hours each, if we only count storms from the satellite era.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_C ... hurricanes

I need to clarify...longest duration with 180+ mph winds...but at 36 hours @ 7:45p (the NHC upgraded to Cat 5 7:45 am sept 5) its making a run at 42hrs, at 11pm adv it will pass that if it is still a cat5
edit (it gets one more hour since that was AST)

Allen 1980 - 18 hours (180-190-180)

[Aric Dunn]

Sorry just a little levity.. lol

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 062240
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 06 20170906
222400 1328N 06742W 4098 07403 0390 -145 -428 163008 008 /// /// 03
222430 1329N 06740W 4099 07400 0391 -145 -433 162008 008 /// /// 03
222500 1331N 06738W 4098 07401 0391 -145 -432 160010 011 /// /// 03
222530 1333N 06736W 4098 07403 0392 -145 -418 159011 011 /// /// 03
222600 1335N 06735W 4098 07413 0396 -145 -411 157011 011 /// /// 03
222630 1337N 06733W 4099 07404 0396 -145 -410 156010 010 /// /// 03
222700 1338N 06731W 4099 07402 0393 -145 -402 157010 010 /// /// 03
222730 1340N 06729W 4098 07405 0394 -145 -399 157010 010 /// /// 03
222800 1342N 06727W 4099 07402 0394 -145 -392 160010 010 /// /// 03
222830 1344N 06725W 4098 07406 0394 -145 -388 162010 010 /// /// 03
222900 1346N 06724W 4098 07404 0393 -145 -385 163009 010 /// /// 03
222930 1347N 06722W 4098 07407 0394 -145 -365 169007 009 /// /// 03
223000 1349N 06720W 4102 07400 0394 -145 -382 170005 005 /// /// 03
223030 1351N 06718W 4098 07408 0395 -145 -385 171005 005 /// /// 03
223100 1353N 06716W 4099 07406 0396 -145 -378 171005 006 /// /// 03
223130 1355N 06714W 4098 07411 0397 -145 -369 170006 006 /// /// 03
223200 1356N 06713W 4101 07405 0397 -145 -372 169007 007 /// /// 03
223230 1358N 06711W 4097 07413 0399 -145 -375 167006 007 /// /// 03
223300 1400N 06709W 4099 07407 0398 -145 -386 173005 006 /// /// 03
223330 1402N 06707W 4099 07407 0398 -145 -400 183006 007 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Exalt]

Pretty wild looking at 2230Z.

Look at that outer eyewall, wonder how it'll handle it..

Inner eye wall starting to erode on the east side

Makes me think it'll probably be an efficient and quick EWRC, which is bad news, easier for it to deepen and intensify. I wonder if it'll merge like it did last time to just slightly expand it..

[cjrciadt]

I ran out of words to describe Irma yesterday morning.

[bob rulz]

I saw a story about a woman in the Keys who was evacuating for the first time in her 51 years of living there.

So it's good to see that even some of the old-timers are taking this one seriously.

[johngaltfla]

Ivan's on Jost Van Dyke, BVI, before and after



Sigh. And I was just walking that beach 4 months ago.

FYI, Foxy is okay per someone who has direct contact there.

[KBBOCA]

Ok, maybe this has happened before, but I don't remember it.

NHC & local area NWS offices in the impact zone of Irma are getting reinforcements from other NWS offices around the country... OH MY. Shows how serious the NHC believes the situation to be. (Plus the fact that they're issuing advisories on 3 concurrent hurricanes... Yikes.)

 https://twitter.com/ounwcm/status/905462815955279872