ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

man this hurricane really loves to do really fast ERCs

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 070003
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 15 20170906
235400 1851N 06547W 6963 02863 9692 +110 +106 218104 107 096 002 01
235430 1852N 06549W 6970 02827 9659 +117 +104 219113 115 097 003 00
235500 1853N 06550W 6966 02798 9652 +101 +101 220118 119 100 008 00
235530 1855N 06551W 6966 02754 9598 +102 //// 223123 125 108 002 01
235600 1856N 06552W 6970 02702 9533 +109 +099 224129 131 119 010 03
235630 1857N 06553W 6957 02667 9493 +108 +108 228131 135 129 018 03
235700 1858N 06554W 6968 02588 9415 +115 +115 227139 144 141 016 00
235730 1858N 06555W 6942 02560 9335 +131 +113 232131 147 144 001 00
235800 1859N 06556W 6991 02447 9262 +145 +129 232110 121 139 015 03
235830 1900N 06557W 6960 02445 9195 +166 +127 227081 102 114 005 03
235900 1901N 06559W 6975 02401 9142 +198 +118 231055 069 059 003 00
235930 1902N 06600W 6966 02384 9098 +224 +111 234032 046 058 003 03
000000 1904N 06601W 6962 02379 9091 +220 +107 230014 027 040 001 00
000030 1905N 06603W 6959 02383 9108 +199 +107 050007 014 024 001 00
000100 1906N 06604W 6969 02371 9112 +198 +109 057023 026 028 002 00
000130 1908N 06605W 6962 02399 9150 +169 +122 055033 040 034 002 00
000200 1909N 06607W 6976 02397 9184 +148 +134 046046 048 051 002 00
000230 1910N 06609W 6974 02417 9195 +156 +125 042053 060 078 003 03
000300 1911N 06610W 6975 02442 9218 +163 +109 036081 090 090 003 03
000330 1912N 06610W 6965 02478 9244 +157 +119 041097 100 /// /// 03
$$
;

147 kt FL, 144 kt SFMR so far. Pressure 909mb.

[Evil Jeremy]

man this hurricane really loves to do really fast ERCs

If only Irma were content for being known solely for that...

[bahamaswx]

Jeez 909mb via extrapolation. Probably more like 913 though.

[plasticup]

909 mbar. My god.

144 kt SMFR, unflagged

[KBBOCA]

Here's the source for the quote from the Prime Minister of Antigua / Barbuda claiming Barbuda is now basically uninhabitable. (population prior to storm about 1600)

I think this is a candidate for quote of the day in terms of Irma's devastation in the Islands... Not gonna forget these words any time soon...

 https://twitter.com/AntiguaNewsRoom/status/905560534740852736

[1900hurricane]

Well, clearly still a category 5.

[northjaxpro]

I have been totally blown away by this super tropical cyclone! Irma still has more left in her incredibly. She has yet to bottom out. I think that will happen when she gets in the Southern Bahamas and on her approach to the coast of Cuba. She will get sub 900 mb I really believe wiith the very good conducive environment she is in and that bath water she is traversing over now, especially if she avoids Hispaniola, which she probably will be able to do unfortunately..

She will have another ERC., which is ongoing currently. When that is completed, this cyclone will be on its way to really blowing the lid off so to speak!!

I have run out of superlatives for this monster cyclone!!

[CrazyC83]

RNT15 KNHC 070013
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 16 20170907
000400 1913N 06611W 6967 02501 9287 +132 //// 043106 111 137 002 01
000430 1914N 06612W 6976 02541 9373 +124 //// 043126 135 147 038 05
000500 1915N 06613W 6959 02616 9443 +117 +117 042142 145 137 050 03
000530 1915N 06613W 6959 02616 9496 +108 +108 045144 145 126 049 03
000600 1917N 06615W 6964 02694 9556 +091 //// 048139 144 /// /// 05
000630 1918N 06616W 6962 02736 9570 +096 +096 049135 137 113 003 01
000700 1919N 06617W 6965 02770 9598 +115 +093 050129 133 111 000 00
000730 1920N 06618W 6971 02792 9629 +117 +098 050120 125 103 003 00
000800 1921N 06620W 6970 02820 9653 +116 +103 049114 117 100 006 00
000830 1922N 06621W 6965 02843 9685 +109 +104 053109 112 095 007 00
000900 1924N 06622W 6967 02866 9735 +101 +101 060119 123 094 021 00
000930 1925N 06624W 6988 02866 9780 +088 //// 050122 124 088 036 01
001000 1926N 06625W 6947 02927 9798 +084 //// 052119 122 084 028 01
001030 1927N 06626W 6974 02914 9816 +088 +088 052116 118 080 032 03
001100 1928N 06627W 6968 02936 9833 +087 +087 053111 113 076 021 03
001130 1930N 06628W 6965 02958 9842 +088 +088 055109 111 076 013 00
001200 1931N 06630W 6970 02964 9850 +088 +088 056104 107 074 009 00
001230 1932N 06631W 6967 02980 9865 +085 +085 058102 104 071 007 00
001300 1933N 06632W 6965 02991 9878 +084 +082 059098 101 071 006 00
001330 1935N 06634W 6968 03000 9894 +083 +080 060096 097 068 006 00
$$
;

145 kt FL this pass; strongest SFMR flagged but 147 kt. Someone else please take over for a bit.

[Kingarabian]

Think the NHC will bring the winds down to 175mph. Were winds higher in the NW or NE quads?

[Aric Dunn]

Jeez 909mb via extrapolation. Probably more like 913 though.

909 with a bunch wind.. could 910 or 911

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Think the NHC will bring the winds down to 175mph. Were winds higher in the NW or NE quads?

NE

[dukeblue219]

Think the NHC will bring the winds down to 175mph. Were winds higher in the NW or NE quads?

NW doesn't look any higher than SE was on this first pass (NE hasn't been sampled), but let's see what the dropsonde data says in the eyewall. The pressure continues to drop.

[Aric Dunn]

Think the NHC will bring the winds down to 175mph. Were winds higher in the NW or NE quads?

ne has not been sampled yet.

[johngaltfla]

Did Irma's eye go over St. John?

Based on the satellite shot posted a few comments above your question
viewtopic.php?p=2631742#p2631742

I'd say the answer is yes.
To my knowledge the following islands all were engulfed in the eye at some point:
Barbuda, St. Barth, St. Martin/St. Maarten, Anguilla, Virgin Gorda, Tortolla, St. John. (plus other smaller islands, especially in the BVI). Probably Jost Van Dyke too, but I've not verified.

St. Thomas definitely got part of the eyewall, but was not engulfed in the eye, I don't think. I think Anegada also was spared the full eyewall.

Jost got the eye and was blasted. Ivan's is gone, still waiting on word about others.

[Big Easy Breeze]

Hoping the latest models continue to push eastward away from Fla. and the east coast. After the models started not seeing Irma enter the SE GOM, you have to feel a little bit of hope, that by some chance, the models will show a near miss to the east coast. Still, must take this storm seriously. Just too darn dangerous to sit back and wait to see IF the models move away from the east coast. Everyone should be making their plans to evacuate now, instead of waiting for government officials to declare a mandatory evacuation.

I look at it this way. It is easier and a lot less stressful to get out early and return early, if the storm should veer away, instead of waiting until the evacuatuion orders are mandatory.

[Blown Away]

Think the NHC will bring the winds down to 175mph. Were winds higher in the NW or NE quads?

ne has not been sampled yet.

How confident do you think the NHC is with that Miami landfall? I know it's basically the Euro track, but can't discount slight GFS/HWRF shifts??

[RL3AO]

We just had a friend tell us that she was in on a meeting with NOAA and that Governer McMaster was on the video call. NOAA stated that this hurricane will hit Charleston as a cat 4 and they said it will hit the gulf stream which will push it into Charleston. Could they be this certain about it at this point?

I am evacuating but I was under the impression that it couldn't be this set in stone already for Charleston.

It's not. This was either NOAA giving the worst case to McMaster for planning purposes, or a classic case of "telephone game" changing the words slightly.

Probably the former. "What's a reasonable worst case scenario" is a pretty common question to ask during preparations.

[JPmia]

Thinking about Florida and storm surge?

Below is a link for a Google + GIS (Geographical Information System) Florida hurricane map. Included with this map are GIS overlay layers with storm surge data.

When the map opens it shows the greater Miami area. The colors show areas that might be covered with water as the result of the storm surge from different size hurricanes. A category 1 hurricane is expected to cover the red areas. A category 5 hurricane might flood all the colored areas.

Note: The NOAA GIS server that is hosting their new experimental storm surge data is having major problems. The surge data this map shows is coming from a GIS server operated by the State of Florida and was developed by the SRES 2017 model. I do not know if this is the same as the experimental surge data from NOAA. If anyone knows, please speak up.

To see the map legend, click “Map Tips” in the upper left corner and then click the “Legend” button.

The map also has more detailed storm surge GIS overlays you can turn on that will show the expected water depth from the storm surge of different size hurricanes.

Be patient! The GIS servers that are hosting this data are extremely busy. It may take a bit of time for the data to appear on the map.

The map also displays the U.S. National Grid (USNG) when it opens. The State of Florida is a leader in making use of USNG to assist in disaster response.

If you have a question about the map please read the "Map Tips" first. That link is in the upper left corner of the map. In addition to the map legend the “Tips” will show you how to turn the other GIS data overlay layers on/off, how to make your own custom map link and more tips for getting the most benefit from the map.

Florida hurricane map link: https://bit.ly/2wHbtfs

Can you provide this map for Broward County?? Thanks in advance!

[dukeblue219]

Think the NHC will bring the winds down to 175mph. Were winds higher in the NW or NE quads?

ne has not been sampled yet.

How confident do you think the NHC is with that Miami landfall? I know it's basically the Euro track, but can't discount slight GFS/HWRF shifts??

Their forecast is a range of uncertainty within the cone. They are not forecasting landfall at any one point, and for good reason. At this point it looks like "somewhere between the west coast and east coast of Florida" is a reasonable target, but anyone claiming more precision than that can't give great confidence.