ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

Think the NHC will bring the winds down to 175mph. Were winds higher in the NW or NE quads?

probably not a reduction in the wind yet. Need to sample the N and NE eyewall first

[KBBOCA]

Irma just won't quit. Stronger still? I don't know what to say...

 https://twitter.com/wxmvpete/status/905585259797991426

[FlSteel]

Have not posted in ages. Mainly just read the forums. Moved from Jacksonville Fl to Harrisburg NC back in 2015. Figured I would not have to worry that much about hurricanes anymore. Most should wind down pretty well before they get to the Charlotte area. Needless to say, Irma has peaked my attention. Figure that we may see some hurricane force gusts up here on Tuesday. My thoughts and prayers go out to all of the people in Florida. Experienced many storms down there, nothing compares to this one though.

[1900hurricane]

Satellite eye temp is starting to cool off a little bit with not much WMG left in the eye. I imagine this is in response to the early stages of eyewall replacement.

[johngaltfla]

Irma just won't quit. Stronger still? I don't know what to say...

 https://twitter.com/wxmvpete/status/905585259797991426

If she breaks 900 mb, I'll be even more speechless.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/905585688166506497

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/905587301513912321

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070023
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 17 20170907
001400 1936N 06635W 6974 03003 9908 +084 +083 057091 095 066 007 00
001430 1937N 06636W 6960 03029 9924 +077 +077 053088 089 065 008 00
001500 1938N 06638W 6969 03024 9933 +075 +075 052085 087 065 008 00
001530 1940N 06639W 6967 03034 9942 +073 +072 054084 085 060 008 00
001600 1941N 06640W 6966 03040 9953 +072 +072 057082 083 059 008 00
001630 1942N 06642W 6969 03043 9949 +077 +071 059081 082 060 007 00
001700 1943N 06643W 6967 03053 9948 +083 +075 058078 080 057 006 00
001730 1945N 06644W 6971 03052 9951 +086 +075 057076 077 054 003 00
001800 1946N 06646W 6967 03063 9952 +090 +076 057076 076 054 003 00
001830 1947N 06647W 6969 03067 9959 +088 +076 058073 075 052 005 00
001900 1948N 06649W 6969 03071 9965 +088 +078 057073 075 050 006 00
001930 1950N 06650W 6969 03076 9971 +088 +084 056075 076 050 005 00
002000 1951N 06651W 6970 03081 9977 +089 +081 054075 076 049 005 00
002030 1952N 06653W 6967 03086 9980 +090 +079 052072 075 050 005 00
002100 1954N 06654W 6967 03091 9985 +089 +078 053073 073 049 007 00
002130 1955N 06655W 6971 03092 9990 +089 +077 054074 075 048 008 00
002200 1956N 06657W 6969 03096 9994 +089 +076 055075 076 046 008 00
002230 1957N 06658W 6967 03099 9999 +087 +073 057071 076 047 008 03
002300 1959N 06659W 6970 03101 0011 +083 +069 056076 077 048 007 00
002330 2000N 06701W 6970 03106 0007 +088 +067 056074 075 044 007 00
$$
;

I'll try post as much as possible but I'm leaving for my break soon

[dukeblue219]

So 916mb is the actual number from the Vortex message. Dropsonde found winds above 180mph around 400ft above the surface, and 130-160mph at and just above the surface. Of course, that's one specific location and NOT on the northern side of the eye. They may reduce it by 5 or 10mph but right now there's no sign of significant wind reduction.

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 0:15Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 15
Observation Number: 03 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 0:00:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°05'N 66°02'W (19.0833N 66.0333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 47 statute miles (75 km) to the N (2°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,332m (7,651ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 144kts (~ 165.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the SE (131°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 231° at 147kts (From the SW at ~ 169.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the SE (131°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 916mb (27.05 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 147kts (~ 169.2mph) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the SE (131°) fro

[abajan]

We just had a friend tell us that she was in on a meeting with NOAA and that Governer McMaster was on the video call. NOAA stated that this hurricane will hit Charleston as a cat 4 and they said it will hit the gulf stream which will push it into Charleston. Could they be this certain about it at this point?

I am evacuating but I was under the impression that it couldn't be this set in stone already for Charleston.

NOAA said that? Seriously? Wow.

[GCANE]

[EquusStorm]

And once it finishes its latest eyewall machinations... I can see it trying to deepen further. I never thought the wild pressures from the GFS would actually verify but honestly I don't see why they won't, given its current intensity.

For many years I'd take blank Atlantic maps and make my own fictional hurricane seasons... and I never plotted something like this, of this intensity in these areas, for fear of being super unrealistic.

[Aric Dunn]

We just had a friend tell us that she was in on a meeting with NOAA and that Governer McMaster was on the video call. NOAA stated that this hurricane will hit Charleston as a cat 4 and they said it will hit the gulf stream which will push it into Charleston. Could they be this certain about it at this point?

I am evacuating but I was under the impression that it couldn't be this set in stone already for Charleston.

NOAA said that? Seriously? Wow.

lol not likely.. becasue the gulf stream does not steer hurricanes.. she misheard. lol

[1900hurricane]

First update of the 00Z best track still has the winds at 160 kt and the just measured 916 mb pressure.

[Blown Away]

Think the NHC will bring the winds down to 175mph. Were winds higher in the NW or NE quads?

probably not a reduction in the wind yet. Need to sample the N and NE eyewall first

Alyono,
What are your thoughts on track prediction? Just E, W or through Fl?

[tropicwatch]

Vortex message went with 916mb kind of high isn't it.

[flamingosun]

Mercy Hospital in Miami is evacuating 200 patients, and is not taking any more ER patients. (from TWC on air)

[Blown Away]

Is the eye tilted? That point is not center in the eye??

[Vdogg]

Irma just won't quit. Stronger still? I don't know what to say...

 https://twitter.com/wxmvpete/status/905585259797991426

If she breaks 900 mb, I'll be even more speechless.

Gfs really knocked these intensity estimates out of the park, and everyone thought it was crazy. Plenty of low shear and warm water to go, and it looks like Irma is going to miss all the mountainous islands.