ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CryHavoc]

Anyone have any idea how the keys will hold up? We have friends down there(Key West) refusing to evacuate We are praying they come to their senses in the night.

They are almost certainly going to be under mandatory evac by 5am. Key West is not a safe place to be in any respect over the weekend, and it is life-threatening to be there.

[dukeblue219]

Anyone have any idea how the keys will hold up? We have friends down there(Key West) refusing to evacuate We are praying they come to their senses in the night.

It's one thing to stay on the mainland because you think your house will survive the storm and you will live. It's another to intentionally stay in an area accessible by one long road that will be effectively devoid of emergency services whether or not the hurricane hits directly. If they have something random and generally minor like appendicitis pop up they could die before they're able to get treatment. There will be no hospitals in the area, the only road will likely be closed, and no medevacs are going to operate for some time. Good luck.

[tronbunny]

Anyone have any idea how the keys will hold up? We have friends down there(Key West) refusing to evacuate We are praying they come to their senses in the night.

Tell them to fill out their toe tags and put them on their big toes before the storm hits. That's what a LEO friend of mine used to tell locals that threatened to ride out the storm.

Or at least write your name, SS# or date of birth and contact number of nearest kin out of the path on your chest or forearm with heavy permanent marker. #notkidding

[Aric Dunn]

Still pretty much same strength.. 180 to 185..

[Patricia]

Any thoughts on Melbourne? We have Family that has tix to fly out of Jacksonville but they think they may ride it out.

[nutkin517]

Anyone have any idea how the keys will hold up? We have friends down there(Key West) refusing to evacuate We are praying they come to their senses in the night.

I just went through Harvey in Beaumont, TX. I've gone through hurricanes before (Rita and Ike) and they are a million times more bearable if you are evacuated and come back after some services have been reestablished. It is terrible to be stuck with no power, no water, no food, nothing open, and no way to get anywhere. It was the absolutely most awful experience of my life. Please beg them to leave.

Edited to add: People don't realize (I sure didn't) that it takes time for the gov't and other organizations to be able to get to disaster areas and supply food, water, ice, shelter...and even rescue. The most horrifying part of Harvey was being awake Tuesday night/Wednesday morning and seeing all of the people on social media begging for help and being told that they had to wait until dawn to be rescued. Some of them were in chest deep water and being told to go into 'survival mode' because no one could help them until daylight.

[SouthDadeFish]

SFMR found a broader surface wind profile in the NE eyewall with a double wind maximum. Interestingly, the flight-level profile was much different, with one distinct maximum of 163 kt.

[Centralflamama]

Anyone have any idea how the keys will hold up? We have friends down there(Key West) refusing to evacuate We are praying they come to their senses in the night.

Tell them to fill out their toe tags and put them on their big toes before the storm hits. That's what a LEO friend of mine used to tell locals that threatened to ride out the storm.

Or at least write your name, SS# or date of birth and contact number of nearest kin out of the path on your chest or forearm with heavy permanent marker. #notkidding

This was my advice... I can't even imagine why they would stay. I am in Polk County and want to leave, I cannot even fathom staying in the Keys.

[ava_ati]

SFMR found a broader surface wind profile in the NE eyewall with a double wind maximum. Interestingly, the flight-level profile was much different, with one distinct maximum of 163 kt.

Any chance you can ELI 5 (explain like I'm 5) that?

[Aric Dunn]

SFMR found a broader surface wind profile in the NE eyewall with a double wind maximum. Interestingly, the flight-level profile was much different, with one distinct maximum of 163 kt.

probably just needs time to work down after the "failed" ERC..

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 1:31Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 15
Observation Number: 08 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 1:13:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°13'N 66°22'W (19.2167N 66.3667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 59 statute miles (96 km) to the NNW (341°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,351m (7,713ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 132kts (~ 151.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SSW (195°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 269° at 129kts (From the W at ~ 148.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the S (189°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 917mb (27.08 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,058m (10,033ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 163kts (~ 187.6mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (43°) from the flight level center at 1:17:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 255° at 12kts (From the WSW at 14mph)

[tronbunny]

Any thoughts on Melbourne? We have Family that has tix to fly out of Jacksonville but they think they may ride it out.

I'm 35miles inland and strongly recommend going inland at least 20+ miles. This just my opinion based on having lived here since David. I've now been through Cat 1-3 winds inland. Cat 4-5 on our coastline is devastation we haven't seen the likes of since Andrew. To be very conservative, I'd seek shelter in central/western GA, or at least Clermont and north.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 070133
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 24 20170907
012400 1936N 06559W 6971 02969 9856 +086 +085 136114 115 082 006 00
012430 1937N 06558W 6964 02990 9867 +089 +082 135111 114 078 006 00
012500 1938N 06556W 6969 02997 9872 +098 +079 132106 107 076 003 00
012530 1939N 06555W 6969 03009 9884 +099 +076 131104 106 072 005 00
012600 1940N 06554W 6968 03018 9896 +097 +071 131101 102 072 005 00
012630 1941N 06553W 6971 03024 9903 +099 +072 131099 100 068 004 00
012700 1942N 06552W 6967 03034 9910 +097 +071 131096 098 067 003 00
012730 1943N 06551W 6968 03037 9912 +102 +070 132093 095 066 003 00
012800 1945N 06549W 6969 03046 9927 +099 +072 132090 092 065 004 00
012830 1946N 06548W 6969 03053 9950 +085 +075 133085 088 061 006 00
012900 1947N 06547W 6964 03063 9956 +084 +077 136087 089 062 007 00
012930 1948N 06546W 6970 03065 9962 +085 +082 136086 089 061 008 00
013000 1949N 06545W 6995 03034 9965 +087 +084 140090 091 057 021 03
013030 1950N 06543W 6961 03081 9962 +088 +082 140093 094 063 013 03
013100 1951N 06542W 6970 03075 9972 +090 +085 138085 092 062 016 03
013130 1952N 06541W 6966 03081 9991 +082 +082 135082 088 061 018 03
013200 1954N 06539W 6977 03076 0007 +075 +075 137084 087 061 018 03
013230 1955N 06538W 6968 03092 0015 +072 +072 136088 090 058 013 03
013300 1956N 06537W 6969 03093 0006 +076 +070 135086 089 057 007 00
013330 1957N 06536W 6965 03103 9991 +093 +067 137084 086 055 005 00
$$
;

[GCANE]

[johngaltfla]

Any thoughts on Melbourne? We have Family that has tix to fly out of Jacksonville but they think they may ride it out.

Melbourne is one of the 'possible' points the eye might pass over. That is foolish to stay there.

[CrazyC83]

URNT12 KNHC 070131
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 07/01:13:20Z
B. 19 deg 13 min N
066 deg 22 min W
C. 700 mb 2351 m
D. 132 kt
E. 195 deg 10 nm
F. 269 deg 129 kt
G. 189 deg 9 nm
H. 917 mb
I. 10 C / 3044 m
J. 21 C / 3058 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C20
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 1511A IRMA OB 08
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 163 KT 043 / 12 NM 01:17:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 255 / 12 KT
;

No change in pressure. No more concentric eye either.

[bevgo]

Writing on skin Will not work. By the time the bodies are found that may be gone. You can scare them with that. Better. Dog tags 1 around neck. 1 Pioneer to a substantial article or a canvas strip. Not perfect but........

[dexterlabio]

More or less. Traditional eyewall replacements involve the outer eyewall choking off inflow to the inner and then taking over as the dominant eyewall. The replacement cycle from yesterday and now this one look more like the eyewalls merge more seamlessly.

To me it seems like the "eyewall melding" does not promote weakening, perhaps it even promotes strengthening of the storm, in contrast with a traditional EWRC where the storm is evidently struggling. I'm really interested to know if that kind of eyewall development is rare, maybe reserved only to the most notable tropical cyclones in history.

[Kingarabian]

Based on the latest data, I would probably drop the winds a bit to 150 kt, unless a dropsonde comes in to support the current intensity.

Agreed.

[dukeblue219]

The uber-crazy winds aren't showing up at the surface right now (apparently) but again we have a dropsonde with 214mph winds just 15mb (~450 feet) up and 176mph about ~120 feet up.

I don't know if the max sustained winds should be listed at 170mph or 185mph or what, but this thing is just as potent as it was this morning.