ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

[SouthDadeFish]

SFMR found a broader surface wind profile in the NE eyewall with a double wind maximum. Interestingly, the flight-level profile was much different, with one distinct maximum of 163 kt.

Any chance you can ELI 5 (explain like I'm 5) that?

I found it interesting that the horizontal structure of winds differed between the surface and the flight-level of the aircraft. As to why they are different, I could offer a couple of hypotheses, but they are probably all trash, so I won't bother.

I will note that a dropsonde in the N eyewall measured an average wind of 163 kt in the lowest 150 m. Irma is still a very powerful hurricane.

[MGC]

Writing on skin Will not work. By the time the bodies are found that may be gone. You can scare them with that. Better. Dog tags 1 around neck. 1 Pioneer to a substantial article or a canvas strip. Not perfect but........

Yes, after Katrina some bodies were not recovered for days. I still remember the stench of the decomposing bodies of animals and humans. Those that chose not to leave paid the ultimate price.......MGC

[GCANE]

last drop in the eyewall

[MGC]

The uber-crazy winds aren't showing up at the surface right now (apparently) but again we have a dropsonde with 214mph winds just 15mb (~450 feet) up and 176mph about ~120 feet up.

I don't know if the max sustained winds should be listed at 170mph or 185mph or what, but this thing is just as potent as it was this morning.

How tall are some of them building along the coast from Miami up to WPB? Winds will likely be a category higher at the top of them......MGC

[jlauderdal]

Any thoughts on Melbourne? We have Family that has tix to fly out of Jacksonville but they think they may ride it out.

Melbourne should prepare for a major hurrucane, look at nhc track

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070143
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 25 20170907
013400 1958N 06534W 6969 03103 9993 +096 +070 138082 083 055 004 00
013430 1959N 06533W 6967 03110 0000 +095 +069 138079 081 054 003 00
013500 2000N 06532W 6969 03113 0003 +095 +064 137077 078 053 003 00
013530 2002N 06531W 6970 03114 0004 +096 +067 137077 077 051 003 00
013600 2003N 06529W 6970 03118 0010 +096 +069 136074 076 049 004 00
013630 2004N 06528W 6967 03123 0007 +100 +065 136074 075 050 003 00
013700 2005N 06527W 6969 03124 0009 +103 +062 136075 075 050 002 00
013730 2006N 06525W 6969 03126 0008 +105 +063 137072 074 049 002 00
013800 2007N 06524W 6967 03131 0009 +105 +063 137072 073 049 003 00
013830 2009N 06523W 6970 03130 0010 +109 +062 138075 075 050 003 00
013900 2010N 06521W 6965 03142 0014 +111 +055 137075 075 049 001 00
013930 2011N 06520W 6970 03137 0024 +105 +055 137074 074 047 002 00
014000 2012N 06519W 6970 03142 0040 +096 +057 138071 073 047 002 00
014030 2013N 06518W 6970 03143 0046 +091 +067 138070 071 046 002 00
014100 2014N 06516W 6967 03148 0045 +096 +050 136068 069 046 002 00
014130 2016N 06515W 6966 03151 0048 +095 +048 134067 067 045 001 00
014200 2017N 06514W 6974 03147 0046 +101 +042 132067 067 045 002 00
014230 2018N 06512W 6967 03158 0044 +105 +037 131066 066 044 001 00
014300 2019N 06511W 6970 03155 0046 +105 +036 131065 066 045 001 00
014330 2020N 06510W 6967 03162 0050 +103 +036 129065 065 044 002 00
$$
;

[Stangfriik]

Any thoughts on Melbourne? We have Family that has tix to fly out of Jacksonville but they think they may ride it out.

Melbourne is one of the 'possible' points the eye might pass over. That is foolish to stay there.

Most around us a little North in New Smyrna Beach are all staying. Melbourne is gonna get a bit higher winds but I haven't really seen or talked to anyone on my street packing up and leaving

[1900hurricane]

Looks like a slightly more traditional eyewall replacement cycle is occurring based on the double wind max and the hint of subsidence near the top of the NE eyewall sonde.

[Buck]

The uber-crazy winds aren't showing up at the surface right now (apparently) but again we have a dropsonde with 214mph winds just 15mb (~450 feet) up and 176mph about ~120 feet up.

I don't know if the max sustained winds should be listed at 170mph or 185mph or what, but this thing is just as potent as it was this morning.

How tall are some of them building along the coast from Miami up to WPB? Winds will likely be a category higher at the top of them......MGC

Miami's tallest building (that is completed) is 800 feet tall.

[chris_fit]

Sarasota/Tampa/Spring Hill Area.... and really anywhere on the W side of FL - Shutter up? Evacuation is out of the question unless this thing is modeled to go into the gulf (extremely unlikely) - But I'm thinking not even shuttering up in Tampa Bay Area.... Probably will get TS force winds winds, can handle that no problem, assuming the track remains 130+ miles to our east.

[weathaguyry]

When it comes down to reality, what is there to hope for? If it doesn't turn north right away it will just be bad news for the West Coast of Florida, if it turns north and parallels the coast it may spare FL, but smash into somewhere father north, if it follows the current NHC forecast, it destroys the cities of Miami and Fort Lauderdale, its a lose- lose situation unfortunately

[NDG]

I wonder why San Juan's airport has not reported in almost 4 hours now, did they loose power?

[Michele B]

The uber-crazy winds aren't showing up at the surface right now (apparently) but again we have a dropsonde with 214mph winds just 15mb (~450 feet) up and 176mph about ~120 feet up.

I don't know if the max sustained winds should be listed at 170mph or 185mph or what, but this thing is just as potent as it was this morning.

How tall are some of them building along the coast from Miami up to WPB? Winds will likely be a category higher at the top of them......MGC

Good point.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070153
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 26 20170907
014400 2021N 06509W 6966 03165 0060 +097 +046 128064 064 044 002 00
014430 2022N 06507W 6969 03164 0067 +092 +043 127064 065 044 001 00
014500 2024N 06506W 6970 03159 0066 +095 +034 127064 064 044 000 00
014530 2025N 06505W 6966 03169 0065 +098 +031 127064 064 043 001 00
014600 2026N 06504W 6969 03169 0067 +099 +031 127064 065 041 002 00
014630 2027N 06502W 6969 03170 0069 +100 +030 127065 066 041 001 00
014700 2028N 06501W 6970 03170 0069 +100 +033 126066 066 042 001 00
014730 2029N 06500W 6966 03177 0073 +100 +031 127064 066 041 001 00
014800 2030N 06459W 6967 03176 0069 +103 +028 128063 064 041 001 03
014830 2032N 06459W 6970 03176 0072 +102 +029 121061 062 /// /// 03
014900 2032N 06502W 6966 03177 0071 +103 +028 122060 061 038 001 03
014930 2032N 06504W 6965 03177 0069 +103 +030 123065 066 041 001 03
015000 2032N 06506W 6970 03170 0067 +103 +030 122066 066 041 001 00
015030 2032N 06509W 6967 03173 0064 +102 +028 122066 067 040 001 00
015100 2032N 06511W 6970 03168 0064 +103 +025 121066 067 041 001 00
015130 2032N 06513W 6968 03168 0068 +097 +029 119065 066 042 001 00
015200 2032N 06516W 6969 03168 0072 +095 +031 119066 066 043 001 00
015230 2033N 06518W 6967 03165 0068 +095 +030 119066 066 043 001 00
015300 2033N 06521W 6971 03160 0069 +091 +039 117066 066 043 001 00
015330 2033N 06523W 6969 03160 0066 +092 +043 118066 068 044 001 03
$$
;

[znel52]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Western half of the storm is starting erode a little bit. Losing some symmetry and CDO warming. Finally a weakening trend or just a speed bump for Irma? Time will tell.

[tolakram]

Saved radar loop

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070203
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 27 20170907
015400 2034N 06525W 6963 03168 0059 +096 +040 119070 071 041 002 00
015430 2035N 06527W 6971 03159 0063 +095 +039 116071 072 041 002 00
015500 2037N 06529W 6968 03162 0067 +092 +040 117073 074 042 001 00
015530 2039N 06531W 6967 03164 0069 +090 +041 116074 075 041 001 00
015600 2040N 06533W 6971 03160 0068 +093 +040 115075 076 041 001 00
015630 2042N 06535W 6967 03166 0066 +095 +043 114073 074 042 002 03
015700 2043N 06537W 6969 03165 0077 +085 +061 112069 072 /// /// 03
015730 2043N 06539W 6970 03162 0074 +087 +055 112069 070 045 003 00
015800 2042N 06542W 6967 03163 0068 +092 +048 110071 072 045 003 00
015830 2042N 06544W 6971 03158 0065 +093 +047 109071 071 044 003 00
015900 2042N 06546W 6966 03162 0068 +087 +055 106067 071 045 004 00
015930 2041N 06549W 6968 03158 0060 +092 +055 107065 067 045 004 00
020000 2041N 06551W 6969 03156 0056 +095 +049 108065 065 044 003 00
020030 2040N 06554W 6969 03156 0060 +091 +051 109067 069 045 003 00
020100 2040N 06556W 6967 03153 0058 +090 +054 108070 070 044 003 00
020130 2040N 06558W 6971 03147 0057 +088 +056 107071 071 046 003 00
020200 2039N 06601W 6967 03151 0055 +087 +060 106072 074 048 004 00
020230 2039N 06603W 6970 03142 0052 +089 +058 108075 075 049 003 00
020300 2038N 06606W 6968 03143 0057 +081 +064 105075 075 048 004 03
020330 2038N 06608W 6968 03142 0056 +081 +068 105075 076 048 007 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

[Hurricane Andrew]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Code: Select all

00HRS - 185mph
24HRS - 165mph
48HRS - 145mph
72HRS - 165mph
96HRS - 145mph, over SEFL
120HRS - 120mph, on the GA coast