ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Saved radar loop
[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/BXGrzNY.gif[/img]

West side looking pretty good to me.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Is it a bit north of the track, or just wobbly?

[decgirl66]

Titusville here (North Brevard County)
Have heard some people say effects here will be similar to what Matthew brought last year. Any thoughts from the more knowledgeable weather peeps? Or is it still to far out to answer that?

[PandaCitrus]

Reports are coming in very slowly from St. Thomas on the US Virgin Islands which got the southern eyewall. What little I see on twitter is there is No power on the whole island and cellular networks down across the island. Major damage to the homes on the northeastern quadrant. South side of the island seemed to do better. The only Hospital lost its roof and the 3rd and 4th floors had to be evacuated during the hurricane.

 https://twitter.com/dennislennox/status/905606845712048129

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Is it a bit north of the track, or just wobbly?

Inner eye wobbling around due to the building, massive outer eyewall.

[tolakram]

Titusville here (North Brevard County)
Have heard some people say effects here will be similar to what Matthew brought last year. Any thoughts from the more knowledgeable weather peeps? Or is it still to far out to answer that?

Still to early. This storm may be bigger and better organized than Matthew, especially if it misses a south Florida landfall. Really hard to say.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070213
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 28 20170907
020400 2037N 06611W 6969 03141 0045 +089 +069 105076 076 049 006 00
020430 2037N 06613W 6969 03142 0038 +095 +068 105075 076 051 005 00
020500 2037N 06615W 6970 03143 0037 +096 +073 107075 076 053 004 00
020530 2036N 06618W 6971 03134 0026 +100 +069 108077 079 056 006 00
020600 2036N 06620W 6963 03140 0022 +100 +067 107079 080 056 007 00
020630 2036N 06623W 6983 03115 0037 +089 +083 111084 086 052 011 00
020700 2036N 06626W 6960 03140 0020 +098 +075 109082 084 043 019 00
020730 2036N 06628W 6976 03124 0042 +086 //// 101075 082 045 017 05
020800 2037N 06631W 6967 03140 0054 +084 +084 095070 075 056 017 03
020830 2037N 06633W 6973 03129 0051 +081 +081 090073 078 058 016 03
020900 2037N 06636W 6970 03138 0048 +082 +077 089075 079 057 016 03
020930 2037N 06638W 6977 03126 0039 +088 +078 092075 076 052 007 00
021000 2037N 06641W 6971 03135 0045 +083 +074 095075 078 050 007 00
021030 2037N 06643W 6970 03135 0037 +088 +074 091077 078 051 005 00
021100 2037N 06646W 6966 03137 0036 +088 +075 090081 083 049 005 00
021130 2038N 06649W 6970 03132 0044 +081 +074 089084 085 049 005 00
021200 2038N 06651W 6970 03132 0051 +077 +071 088085 085 050 005 00
021230 2038N 06654W 6965 03142 0044 +086 +068 085082 085 048 005 00
021300 2038N 06656W 6967 03136 0041 +088 +069 081080 082 048 005 00
021330 2038N 06659W 6973 03135 0046 +087 +067 080080 081 045 005 00
$$
;

[rickybobby]

Went to ucf and all gas stations near ucf don't have any gas left. We were waiting in class for 10 minutes and our professor hasn't shown up yet. She sent us an email saying she was stuck in traffic and still 30 minutes away so class is cancelled. I went to target and saw a kid returning canned food, water, candles and flashlights because Wesh 2 said in the afternoon that the models have shifted east and it would miss Orlando. About 3 people were in line wanting to return their hurricane supplies.

[weathaguyry]

I'm not sure what I'm going to wake up to, but I have a feeling that it may be a huge, scary eye

[CrazyC83]

On my Facebook page, I wrote this personal plea:

Good evening. I'm going to speak from my heart.

There are millions of people potentially facing a hurricane threat like we haven't seen in the modern era. Millions of people have moved to Florida or the southeast coast in recent decades, and most of them have never experienced a direct impact from a major hurricane. You may have been inconvenienced by power outages, roof or siding damage from other storms, but you didn't truly "survive" that storm. Look at the pictures from Rockport, Texas in Hurricane Harvey two weeks ago and place that in your community (or even more intense). That is what you can expect if the eyewall goes over you, and Irma is expected to be a larger storm.

If you are ordered to evacuate, please - for my sake, and for the sake others - leave for higher ground in safer areas. If something happens to you, emergency responders will not be able to get to you - possibly for hours. They will not go out in hurricane conditions, as it will be too dangerous for them. Imagine if you have a stress-related heart attack, or your house is struck by a tree and you are injured, or if you are flooded and need to escape. You're on your own! The storm surge threat will extend well north of Florida too, and may be even greater farther north due to local conditions.

Think also of your loved ones - family and friends. How would they feel if you are suffering - or injured, or worse yet killed - because you are trapped in conditions where you can't get help? We saw the dramatic rescues in Harvey, but that was harder to warn due to rivers and rainfall. Here, you have the benefit of much more lead time. Take advantage of it!

Property damage is unavoidable. It is likely that anywhere hit by the eyewall will be unrecognizable and recovery will take months or years. Power outages will likely be widespread, and in the hardest hit communities will last weeks or longer. However, property can be replaced and rebuilt. Lives cannot. The goal should be ZERO loss of life, and it is still achievable. It is all up to you.

Yes, there may be a lot of hype right now, but this storm has 185 mph winds. That is stronger than any US storm in modern history. Katrina AT ITS PEAK was not this strong. It's 50 mph stronger than Harvey was when it made its landfall, and you probably saw the pictures and videos. The hype is warranted - if that eyewall comes over you, the damage will be like an intense tornado occurring at the same time as ocean water rising over you, possibly over your entire house. It's a scary situation!

If, somehow, Irma turns away from you, remember that it could have been terrible. It probably will be terrible somewhere that can't be pinpointed at this time. But you need to be sheltered or out of the path before tropical storm winds arrive. Driving in sustained winds over 39 mph is too dangerous. For South Florida that is early Saturday, moving northward with time. Consider your own well being and your family and friends!

As I said, think about it. Are you willing to be on your own for hours in an emergency? Are you concerned about your own safety? You have plenty of time to react - at least two full days. Take advantage! The goal should be ZERO fatalities, and we can achieve it with you! Even though the damage will likely be heartbreaking, it's just wood and metal. It can be rebuilt. Unlike you.

Good luck and stay safe!!!!

https://www.facebook.com/ceeceeweather/ ... 0177965901

[hurricanefloyd5]

Titusville here (North Brevard County)
Have heard some people say effects here will be similar to what Matthew brought last year. Any thoughts from the more knowledgeable weather peeps? Or is it still to far out to answer that?

You will get hurricane force winds!!!!!

[MatthewsRevenge]

Went to ucf and all gas stations near ucf don't have any gas left. We were waiting in class for 10 minutes and our professor hasn't shown up yet. She sent us an email saying she was stuck in traffic and still 30 minutes away so class is cancelled. I went to target and saw a kid returning canned food, water, candles and flashlights because Wesh 2 said in the afternoon that the models have shifted east and it would miss Orlando. About 3 people were in line wanting to return their hurricane supplies.

This could be a fatal mistake.

[decgirl66]

Went to ucf and all gas stations near ucf don't have any gas left. We were waiting in class for 10 minutes and our professor hasn't shown up yet. She sent us an email saying she was stuck in traffic and still 30 minutes away so class is cancelled. I went to target and saw a kid returning canned food, water, candles and flashlights because Wesh 2 said in the afternoon that the models have shifted east and it would miss Orlando. About 3 people were in line wanting to return their hurricane supplies.

I saw some posts earlier today about people returning stuff. Crazy. Unfortunately some people put a lot of faith in the media. I am so glad I found this board back when Charley was headed here!

[NDG]

Went to ucf and all gas stations near ucf don't have any gas left. We were waiting in class for 10 minutes and our professor hasn't shown up yet. She sent us an email saying she was stuck in traffic and still 30 minutes away so class is cancelled. I went to target and saw a kid returning canned food, water, candles and flashlights because Wesh 2 said in the afternoon that the models have shifted east and it would miss Orlando. About 3 people were in line wanting to return their hurricane supplies.

Unbelievable, TV news need to stop showing the spaghetti models and give false hopes to their TV viewers, they need to go with the official forecast track by the NHC.

Edit: one more thing to add, just 3-4 days ago the spaghetti models were showing Irma missing the Virgin Islands, the media should use this example.

[jlauderdal]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-avn-long.html

Western half of the storm is starting erode a little bit. Losing some symmetry and CDO warming. Finally a weakening trend or just a speed bump for Irma? Time will tell.

Speed bump, conditions look ripe in the straits

[weathaguyry]

Saved radar loop

This definitely goes down as one of the most amazing radar shots of a storm I have ever seen, you can see the inner eye wall bouncing around, that will eventually give way to the huge outer eyewall

[jlauderdal]

Titusville here (North Brevard County)
Have heard some people say effects here will be similar to what Matthew brought last year. Any thoughts from the more knowledgeable weather peeps? Or is it still to far out to answer that?

Expect something much stronger than matthew

[Mello1]

I wonder why San Juan's airport has not reported in almost 4 hours now, did they loose power?

Yes, I read a report that up to 900k is without power in the PR.

[ozonepete]

Anyone have any idea how the keys will hold up? We have friends down there(Key West) refusing to evacuate We are praying they come to their senses in the night.

I just went through Harvey in Beaumont, TX. I've gone through hurricanes before (Rita and Ike) and they are a million times more bearable if you are evacuated and come back after some services have been reestablished. It is terrible to be stuck with no power, no water, no food, nothing open, and no way to get anywhere. It was the absolutely most awful experience of my life. Please beg them to leave.

Edited to add: People don't realize (I sure didn't) that it takes time for the gov't and other organizations to be able to get to disaster areas and supply food, water, ice, shelter...and even rescue. The most horrifying part of Harvey was being awake Tuesday night/Wednesday morning and seeing all of the people on social media begging for help and being told that they had to wait until dawn to be rescued. Some of them were in chest deep water and being told to go into 'survival mode' because no one could help them until daylight.

This is very sound advice. You don't have to be a meteorologist or emergency worker to know this. You just have to survive it to know that staying can be a huge mistake. It could even be your life on the line.

[dukeblue219]

Went to ucf and all gas stations near ucf don't have any gas left. We were waiting in class for 10 minutes and our professor hasn't shown up yet. She sent us an email saying she was stuck in traffic and still 30 minutes away so class is cancelled. I went to target and saw a kid returning canned food, water, candles and flashlights because Wesh 2 said in the afternoon that the models have shifted east and it would miss Orlando. About 3 people were in line wanting to return their hurricane supplies.

Once again people trust "their guy" on the local affiliate when he's *at-best* regurgitating NHC forecasts, and at worse he's displaying those spaghetti model forecasts that aren't the whole story while hyping every 50 mile shift at 96 hours as a major trend.

I wish people would just listen to the NHC and understand what the cone is, and local mets could help by not displaying forecast tracks as black lines on a map.