ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070223
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 29 20170907
021400 2038N 06702W 6969 03141 0044 +091 +067 076078 079 047 004 00
021430 2038N 06704W 6968 03141 0051 +086 +070 072077 078 046 006 00
021500 2038N 06707W 6968 03143 0068 +074 +066 074080 081 046 008 00
021530 2039N 06709W 6967 03149 0053 +088 +064 069079 081 046 004 00
021600 2039N 06712W 6971 03145 0042 +098 +064 072077 077 046 004 00
021630 2039N 06714W 6969 03149 0049 +094 +059 074079 081 047 005 00
021700 2039N 06717W 6967 03153 0041 +101 +056 073080 082 046 005 00
021730 2039N 06720W 6971 03147 0044 +097 +057 072079 079 046 005 00
021800 2039N 06722W 6966 03152 0052 +092 +057 073080 081 047 007 00
021830 2039N 06725W 6974 03146 0051 +095 +057 071077 080 048 006 00
021900 2039N 06727W 6965 03158 0046 +099 +054 071074 076 047 004 00
021930 2040N 06730W 6969 03152 0045 +100 +051 071076 076 046 003 00
022000 2040N 06732W 6967 03157 0053 +095 +048 071075 076 044 003 00
022030 2040N 06735W 6969 03153 0051 +098 +048 070072 074 040 004 00
022100 2040N 06737W 6969 03157 0066 +095 +046 069070 071 038 005 00
022130 2040N 06740W 6967 03166 0068 +094 +041 068071 071 038 003 00
022200 2040N 06742W 6971 03160 0070 +092 +043 069072 072 037 003 00
022230 2040N 06744W 6967 03153 0048 +098 +035 067070 072 037 002 00
022300 2040N 06747W 6967 03159 0058 +096 +042 067069 069 036 002 00
022330 2040N 06749W 6968 03163 0072 +084 +063 067068 069 037 005 00
$$
;

[EquusStorm]

Outer eyewall definitely contracting based on radar... the view from which today has been one of the most amazing things to watch from a NWS-based radar ever... though the inner eyewall is still very vigorous and intense. I wonder if it will slowly linger and wither as the outer continues to contract, or the two will just kind of merge together. We don't exactly have much data on eyewall dynamics of Atlantic storms this strong to compare to.

[Mello1]

Went to ucf and all gas stations near ucf don't have any gas left. We were waiting in class for 10 minutes and our professor hasn't shown up yet. She sent us an email saying she was stuck in traffic and still 30 minutes away so class is cancelled. I went to target and saw a kid returning canned food, water, candles and flashlights because Wesh 2 said in the afternoon that the models have shifted east and it would miss Orlando. About 3 people were in line wanting to return their hurricane supplies.

This could be a fatal mistake.

Personally, I think it's irresponsible for any local news cast to make a declarative statement like that while the NHC still has all of FL in the cone.

[NDG]

The PM from Antigua & Barbuda being interviewed right now on CNN, he says that 90% of the homes in Barbuda were destroyed. They flew over the Island via helicopter this afternoon.

[MetroMike]

Sarasota/Tampa/Spring Hill Area.... and really anywhere on the W side of FL - Shutter up? Evacuation is out of the question unless this thing is modeled to go into the gulf (extremely unlikely) - But I'm thinking not even shuttering up in Tampa Bay Area.... Probably will get TS force winds winds, can handle that no problem, assuming the track remains 130+ miles to our east.

Saw some video on TWC showing people putting up boards on their windows in St.Pete
Better safe than having to do last second preps.
We are still in the cone, would not call it "extremely unlikely" at this point.

[tolakram]

SLIDER IR

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=14376&y=6104&z=3&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=10&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[ozonepete]

Is it a bit north of the track, or just wobbly?

Both.

[NDG]

Anyone have any idea how the keys will hold up? We have friends down there(Key West) refusing to evacuate We are praying they come to their senses in the night.

I just went through Harvey in Beaumont, TX. I've gone through hurricanes before (Rita and Ike) and they are a million times more bearable if you are evacuated and come back after some services have been reestablished. It is terrible to be stuck with no power, no water, no food, nothing open, and no way to get anywhere. It was the absolutely most awful experience of my life. Please beg them to leave.

Edited to add: People don't realize (I sure didn't) that it takes time for the gov't and other organizations to be able to get to disaster areas and supply food, water, ice, shelter...and even rescue. The most horrifying part of Harvey was being awake Tuesday night/Wednesday morning and seeing all of the people on social media begging for help and being told that they had to wait until dawn to be rescued. Some of them were in chest deep water and being told to go into 'survival mode' because no one could help them until daylight.

This is very sound advice. You don't have to be a meteorologist or emergency worker to know this. You just have to survive it to know that staying can be a huge mistake. It could even be your life on the line.

I have not seen you post lately, what's your take on Irma's track?

[invest man]

Is it a bit north of the track, or just wobbly?

I just noticed that too. Also looks to be moving pretty fast. Appears to go n of forecast point at a quicker rate. Wonder if that will have a bearing on the storm down stream?

[AutoPenalti]

wow, I can't believe actual mets (wesh 2) said that...

[Agua]

I've gone through hurricanes before (Rita and Ike) and they are a million times more bearable if you are evacuated and come back after some services have been reestablished. It is terrible to be stuck with no power, no water, no food, nothing open, and no way to get anywhere. It was the absolutely most awful experience of my life

Word.

[cfltrib]

Titusville here (North Brevard County)
Have heard some people say effects here will be similar to what Matthew brought last year. Any thoughts from the more knowledgeable weather peeps? Or is it still to far out to answer that?

Irma has more surge potential all the way up the coast, possible 8-10' from the keys to St. Augustine. From St. Augustine northward, the surge risk gets even worse. Wind levels depend a lot on actual eye position as it passes - anything from Matthew severity to 30-40 mph more! Plan to err on the side of safety - you won't get a second chance.

[ozonepete]

Titusville here (North Brevard County)
Have heard some people say effects here will be similar to what Matthew brought last year. Any thoughts from the more knowledgeable weather peeps? Or is it still to far out to answer that?

There is a distinct possibility that could be the case. Keep watching, especially the NHC, and check in here when you can.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070233
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 30 20170907
022400 2041N 06752W 6974 03158 0079 +082 +061 067069 071 039 004 00
022430 2041N 06754W 6970 03163 0095 +071 +068 067065 069 040 007 00
022500 2041N 06757W 6969 03165 0075 +085 +072 065062 063 041 003 00
022530 2041N 06759W 6968 03166 0065 +095 +057 062063 063 039 000 00
022600 2041N 06801W 6967 03169 0067 +095 +051 063064 064 038 001 00
022630 2041N 06804W 6970 03166 0067 +097 +043 060064 064 036 002 00
022700 2041N 06806W 6970 03168 0065 +102 +037 061062 063 036 001 00
022730 2041N 06808W 6970 03169 0062 +105 +034 059064 064 035 001 03
022800 2040N 06810W 6967 03170 0062 +103 +033 057062 063 /// /// 03
022830 2038N 06809W 6966 03174 0067 +101 +037 058056 061 036 001 00
022900 2037N 06808W 6970 03166 0066 +100 +033 057057 057 037 001 00
022930 2036N 06807W 6967 03170 0069 +094 +038 057058 059 038 002 00
023000 2035N 06806W 6973 03158 0070 +092 +053 058058 060 039 002 00
023030 2034N 06804W 6968 03163 0077 +084 +058 059056 057 042 004 00
023100 2033N 06803W 6970 03160 0071 +088 +052 063057 057 044 004 00
023130 2032N 06802W 6970 03158 0070 +087 +054 061058 058 044 004 00
023200 2030N 06801W 6969 03157 0066 +089 +051 060059 059 041 003 00
023230 2029N 06800W 6967 03159 0063 +091 +041 059060 060 036 002 00
023300 2028N 06758W 6970 03155 0057 +096 +034 060061 062 037 002 00
023330 2027N 06757W 6970 03153 0059 +093 +040 061061 062 036 005 00
$$
;

[mrbagyo]

Convection is warming slightly atm ( maybe due to EWRC) but regaining it back won't be a big problem for Irma. Lots of fuel ahead - mostly in the Bahamas

[MatthewsRevenge]

Think Nathan Deal would do the same for Georgia?

[nutkin517]

After going through Harvey, I'd say it is a huge mistake for anyone that could be affected by a hurricane to not have plenty of supplies at your ready. I will never again be without many cases of water, non-perishable food, flashlights, batteries. We still don't have running water in Beaumont and they are saying they don't have a clue when it will be restored. And that is from a 'tropical storm.' Returning hurricane supplies is stupidity.

[ozonepete]

I just went through Harvey in Beaumont, TX. I've gone through hurricanes before (Rita and Ike) and they are a million times more bearable if you are evacuated and come back after some services have been reestablished. It is terrible to be stuck with no power, no water, no food, nothing open, and no way to get anywhere. It was the absolutely most awful experience of my life. Please beg them to leave.

Edited to add: People don't realize (I sure didn't) that it takes time for the gov't and other organizations to be able to get to disaster areas and supply food, water, ice, shelter...and even rescue. The most horrifying part of Harvey was being awake Tuesday night/Wednesday morning and seeing all of the people on social media begging for help and being told that they had to wait until dawn to be rescued. Some of them were in chest deep water and being told to go into 'survival mode' because no one could help them until daylight.

This is very sound advice. You don't have to be a meteorologist or emergency worker to know this. You just have to survive it to know that staying can be a huge mistake. It could even be your life on the line.

I have not seen you post lately, what's your take on Irma's track?

I haven't been around because I've had so much going on but of course I missed this place.

I always like the trend, especially as we get close to landfall, and the trend has been eastward to just off the Florida coast but with a dangerously close approach to the SE FL coast. So this is starting to look like Matthew to me, though it could start it's just-off-the-coast northward strafing more like around Miami than further north. As of right now I don't expect central or western Florida to get anything more than Matthew gave them, but I'm not committing to anything until tomorrow afternoon after the 12Z Euro and GFS come in.

Good to see you.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070243
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 31 20170907
023400 2026N 06756W 6969 03152 0058 +092 +041 060061 061 040 003 00
023430 2025N 06755W 6970 03151 0051 +096 +035 059060 061 041 004 00
023500 2024N 06754W 6970 03148 0046 +097 +041 059062 063 041 004 00
023530 2023N 06752W 6967 03148 0047 +095 +044 058063 064 041 004 00
023600 2022N 06751W 6971 03143 0038 +102 +041 057065 066 042 003 00
023630 2020N 06750W 6968 03145 0039 +099 +040 056066 069 042 003 00
023700 2019N 06749W 6973 03136 0035 +096 +044 055068 069 042 003 00
023730 2018N 06748W 6967 03138 0032 +097 +046 053068 069 042 005 03
023800 2017N 06746W 6970 03132 0030 +096 +047 052068 069 044 005 00
023830 2016N 06745W 6970 03127 0023 +098 +048 049069 069 044 006 00
023900 2015N 06744W 6970 03127 0019 +099 +049 047070 071 044 007 00
023930 2014N 06743W 6966 03129 0012 +102 +050 045068 071 045 004 00
024000 2012N 06741W 6970 03124 0012 +103 +053 048061 069 045 006 00
024030 2011N 06740W 6967 03124 0016 +093 +067 051054 058 048 004 00
024100 2010N 06739W 6967 03123 0018 +088 +070 046060 062 049 004 00
024130 2009N 06738W 6969 03115 0031 +078 +078 049062 067 048 008 00
024200 2008N 06736W 6971 03108 0018 +083 +069 057065 065 049 004 00
024230 2006N 06735W 6963 03113 9990 +101 +062 055064 065 048 006 00
024300 2005N 06734W 6973 03099 9992 +099 +061 054065 066 049 007 00
024330 2004N 06733W 6965 03102 9979 +104 +060 052067 068 050 003 00
$$
;

[HarryPotter]

Anyone have the latest Dvorak T number? (and the best link so I can grab it myself going forward?