ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Bamagirl2408]

Went to ucf and all gas stations near ucf don't have any gas left. We were waiting in class for 10 minutes and our professor hasn't shown up yet. She sent us an email saying she was stuck in traffic and still 30 minutes away so class is cancelled. I went to target and saw a kid returning canned food, water, candles and flashlights because Wesh 2 said in the afternoon that the models have shifted east and it would miss Orlando. About 3 people were in line wanting to return their hurricane supplies.

This could be a fatal mistake.

They have been posting/tweeting about returns since first shift east was posted this morning.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070303
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 33 20170907
025400 1941N 06708W 6965 02919 9817 +069 +068 044113 117 080 019 00
025430 1940N 06707W 6968 02901 9778 +085 +085 049114 119 087 018 00
025500 1939N 06706W 6977 02865 9739 +097 +096 048112 116 092 011 00
025530 1938N 06705W 6969 02850 9707 +098 +098 049118 121 098 014 00
025600 1937N 06704W 6970 02815 9686 +095 +095 047124 126 104 037 03
025630 1936N 06703W 6967 02787 9662 +087 +087 043129 132 106 066 00
025700 1935N 06702W 6960 02748 9606 +091 +091 042140 144 120 066 03
025730 1934N 06701W 6967 02693 9540 +099 +099 042142 144 134 073 00
025800 1933N 06700W 6973 02627 9460 +108 +108 049128 143 149 051 00
025830 1932N 06659W 6969 02565 9373 +120 +117 049094 115 153 038 03
025900 1931N 06657W 7002 02489 9311 +147 +125 050077 079 150 005 03
025930 1930N 06656W 6963 02505 9269 +160 +131 048071 075 113 007 03
030000 1929N 06655W 6982 02450 9225 +170 +139 047063 069 071 003 03
030030 1927N 06654W 6972 02436 9182 +189 +145 050044 057 056 001 03
030100 1926N 06652W 6985 02405 9156 +205 +133 053026 037 040 003 00
030130 1925N 06651W 6991 02385 9151 +201 +118 066013 021 024 000 03
030200 1923N 06650W 6972 02401 9146 +200 +105 220006 014 026 000 00
030230 1922N 06649W 6975 02412 9167 +190 +096 229031 043 037 002 03
030300 1920N 06648W 6971 02433 9185 +189 +097 237054 062 039 001 03
030330 1919N 06649W 6959 02464 9205 +182 +096 247063 066 /// /// 03
$$
;

144 kt FL, 153 kt SFMR. Pressure 915mb.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905627167660412928




Allen (1980)
pic.twitter.com/VC8sEAfBxe
11:01 PM - Sep 6, 2017

[Raebie]

New advisory forecast points:

3 days: Maybe 80 miles west of Andros Island
4 days: Fort Pierce, barely inland
5 days: Savannah, Georgia

I always find the Savannah tag weird....that storm has to get through Tybee, Wilmington, and Whitemarsh to get to Savannah.

Wilmington? Not unless they moved it and didn't tell me.

[meriland29]

is she weakening or strengthening?

[La Sirena]

New advisory forecast points:

3 days: Maybe 80 miles west of Andros Island
4 days: Fort Pierce, barely inland
5 days: Savannah, Georgia

I always find the Savannah tag weird....that storm has to get through Tybee, Wilmington, and Whitemarsh to get to Savannah.

Wilmington? Not unless they moved it and didn't tell me.

More than one Wilmington in the US lol. Savannah is protected by a series of barrier islands:
Tybee Island
Wilmington Island
Whitemarsh Island

Tybee is located just to the south of Hilton Head, SC. Literally...just across the mouth of the Savannah river.

[tolakram]

[NDG]

The latest forecast track by the NHC is very close to the 12z Euro.

[tolakram]

is she weakening or strengthening?

Steady for now.

[Raebie]

I always find the Savannah tag weird....that storm has to get through Tybee, Wilmington, and Whitemarsh to get to Savannah.

Wilmington? Not unless they moved it and didn't tell me.

More than one Wilmington in the US lol. Savannah is protected by a series of barrier islands:
Tybee Island
Wilmington Island
Whitemarsh Island

Tybee is located just to the south of Hilton Head, SC. Literally...just across the mouth of the Savannah river.

I know the area, didn't know there was a Wilmington island though. Not sure how it's surprising that Savannah would be a potential target though. Unless you're talking about official first landfall. Which is a technicality.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070314
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 34 20170907
030400 1920N 06650W 6950 02458 9182 +191 +089 246041 059 041 003 03
030430 1922N 06651W 6967 02427 9168 +196 +086 244015 029 039 001 03
030500 1924N 06651W 6965 02417 9149 +201 +087 080005 009 028 001 00
030530 1926N 06652W 6965 02417 9139 +216 +079 076016 021 022 001 00
030600 1927N 06653W 6967 02418 9149 +210 +089 073027 030 033 002 00
030630 1929N 06654W 6973 02417 9165 +197 +097 074036 039 037 002 03
030700 1930N 06655W 6967 02435 9179 +191 +093 074047 052 /// /// 03
030730 1930N 06655W 6967 02435 9196 +181 +093 085057 061 /// /// 03
030800 1932N 06653W 6963 02443 9195 +178 +093 098061 063 061 002 00
030830 1931N 06652W 6970 02432 9202 +164 +099 108069 072 063 002 00
030900 1931N 06650W 6968 02429 9195 +168 +097 118069 073 067 003 00
030930 1930N 06649W 6965 02436 9184 +186 +090 126074 077 074 000 00
031000 1930N 06648W 6978 02422 9186 +182 +095 134077 078 084 001 03
031030 1930N 06647W 6967 02444 9183 +193 +087 144083 086 090 001 03
031100 1928N 06647W 6965 02440 9184 +187 +091 154068 083 /// /// 03
031130 1927N 06648W 6973 02417 9177 +181 +095 160051 059 068 000 03
031200 1927N 06650W 6970 02406 9154 +192 +087 163033 044 /// /// 03
031230 1928N 06651W 6966 02406 9137 +206 +082 140026 027 031 001 03
031300 1929N 06653W 6970 02402 9138 +208 +079 106033 037 030 001 03
031330 1930N 06655W 6969 02410 9144 +206 +079 079035 038 /// /// 03
$$
;

Circling the eye. Lowest pressure 914.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow. I noticed that when(If) it gets to South Carolina, they expect it to no longer be a major hurricane and landfall around 110 mph. That's a 75mph wind speed reduction. They must really be expecting an unfavorable environment. So if this can stay to the east of Florida, we may get lucky and not have this landfall as a major

[Aric Dunn]

its probably down to about 175 mph. assuming a dropsonde does not show higher.

[La Sirena]

Wilmington? Not unless they moved it and didn't tell me.

More than one Wilmington in the US lol. Savannah is protected by a series of barrier islands:
Tybee Island
Wilmington Island
Whitemarsh Island

Tybee is located just to the south of Hilton Head, SC. Literally...just across the mouth of the Savannah river.

I know the area, didn't know there was a Wilmington island though. Not sure how it's surprising that Savannah would be a potential target though. Unless you're talking about official first landfall. Which is a technicality.

No offense, but you obviously don't know it that well. It's surprising because I lived on Tybee and in Savannah for a long time before we bought in the Keys....the beauty of that area of coastal Georgia was that it hadn't been hit by a hurricane in 150+ years.

And regarding landfall and technicality....Matthew just missed landfall there last year. Hasn't experienced a landfall in a. Very. Long. Time.

[norva]

I am not sure what to think anymore at this point regarding it's eventual path. It's stressful, I am near Orlando and already prepared but it's frustrating not knowing what to expect. These shifts east we saw earlier I was very skeptical about, but they seem to be trending that way again and tightening up.I just hope people don't get complacent again if it does move east in the next couple days (Although for Miami looks bad either way).

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

For those in the impact zone who are staying put all I can say is good luck everyone. My prayers are with you. As someone who was in South Florida and went through Andrew back in 1992, I can say I don't envy you.

[Evil Jeremy]

For the first time in all my decade and a half of tracking hurricanes, I am unnerved. Frances/Jeanne were always going to be North of me, and I knew Wilma would go quickly and probably not be a Major by the time it got to Broward County.

But I've never been more worried than with Irma. This is a monstrosity that will devastate SE FL if the forecast plays out as is. The prospect of being under the eye of a Cat 4 (or worse) in four days is makes me nauseous. I was faced with that prospect last year with Matthew, but the threat feels much more real this time. And while I evacuated Jacksonville for Matthew, it looks like I will be staying put in Fort Lauderdale for Irma. House shutters went up today. House was built year before Andrew, but the roof is less than three years old, so hopefully everything holds.

If this scenario unfolds, SE FL will be changed. I'm taking tomorrow to remember the local landmarks as they currently stand. Maybe I'll get some La Spadas for lunch and Jacksons for desert.

[La Sirena]

I am not sure what to think anymore at this point regarding it's eventual path. It's stressful, I am near Orlando and already prepared but it's frustrating not knowing what to expect. These shifts east we saw earlier I was very skeptical about, but they seem to be trending that way again and tightening up.I just hope people don't get complacent again if it does move east in the next couple days (Although for Miami looks bad either way).

You're prepared and that's all you can do right now! It will shift a few more times in the next few days. You got this!

[NDG]

Recon's latest pass found lowest pressure at 19.5N & 66.85W

[Michele B]

Went to ucf and all gas stations near ucf don't have any gas left. We were waiting in class for 10 minutes and our professor hasn't shown up yet. She sent us an email saying she was stuck in traffic and still 30 minutes away so class is cancelled. I went to target and saw a kid returning canned food, water, candles and flashlights because Wesh 2 said in the afternoon that the models have shifted east and it would miss Orlando. About 3 people were in line wanting to return their hurricane supplies.

This could be a fatal mistake.

I agree, it is a really bad decision, and I don't want to get political, but the plain and simple truth is that many people cannot AFFORD to purchase unnecessary items. If it turns out they won't be needed, that money may be needed somewhere else

Caught between a rock and a hard place...

I'm sure most would want to keep the items if they could afford it.