ATL: IRMA - Models

[CronkPSU]

I think the key is that the father north this this thing can get without crossing land, it will be stronger. (A ride up the spine of FL would likely weaken this to a TS/1 before grossing the GA line, but a track offshore could promote a strong 2 as this approaches the NC area)

whole lot of flat land and the everglades it would cross...plus it will still be able to pull moisture from both the Gulf and the Atlantic

[DESTRUCTION5]

Not much movement from 00z TVCN...

Interesting nearly all the 00z guidance R of NHC...

Don't think the Tabs can be conidered 00z guidance lol

[poof121]

Not much movement from 00z TVCN...

Interesting nearly all the 00z guidance R of NHC...

ECMWF not on that plot.

[Blown Away]

Not much movement from 00z TVCN...

Interesting nearly all the 00z guidance R of NHC...

Don't think the Tabs can be conidered 00z guidance lol

Lol, I'll call it "Model Run Update At 00z"
TVCN does update every 6 hours, so there is an update of the consensus...

[NDG]

Evidence of how right biased the hurricane models have been most of the time during the lifetime of Irma during their 72-120 hr forecast, and in some instances in 48 hrs too.

[stormreader]

The HWRF infrared model simulation shows an absolutely gigantic eye, almost annular in nature. It had to be 40 or even 50 miles wide. Whether the center comes offshore 20 miles or into the everglades spine or west coast may not matter much if this huge eyewall materializes. You are looking at possibly a swatch of 70-90 miles in width of extreme cat 4-5 winds in a gigantic eyewall.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905495183919390720

Good post: You're right. Everything is measured from the center of the eye. If you have a huge annular eye, then extreme eyeball winds are much further removed from that point at the center of the eye.

[tolakram]

Here is the 18z

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicswatch/status/905592978223312896

[NDG]

For what is worth the NAM has shifted a good 80 miles west from its earlier 18z & 12z runs through its 60 hr forecast.

[AutoPenalti]

For what is worth the NAM has shifted a good 80 miles west from its earlier 18z & 12z runs through its 60 hr forecast.

Not good.

[caneman]

For what is worth the NAM has shifted a good 80 miles west from its earlier 18z & 12z runs through its 60 hr forecast.

Link or image? Thanks

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/wxmanms1/status/905602500186828801

[NDG]

All it is that the NAM is getting closer to the global models' track. It was also right biased with Harvey in it 60-84 hr range.

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/wxmanms1/status/905602500186828801

Yet more evidence of how right biased the GFS has been.

[pcolaman]

80 miles is a huge shift when getting close to landfall

[Steve]

Here is the 18z

That's pretty frightening man. I dig all of the east coast of Florida and the people I know and have met there from Jacksonville all the way down to Miami. The only places I haven't been are Flagler Co. and in between Cocoa and Miami. Then you look at a sometimes reliable model like the UK Met and think of all the places up and down the coast that are going to get wrecked. In the UKMET's sceanrio, it really doesn't matter all that much that Irma exits the state back into the Atlantic around Ormond/Daytona Beach. The state goes concave north of there until it curves back near the GA Border. Just the same, Irma doesn't look like it ever gets more than a degree and a half off the coast. So places farthest away from the center like say Jacksonville Beach would still be fairly close to the northern core as it came up and then the west side of the core and finally the inflow from the south. Perhaps a half day of about Cat 1 conditions might be manageable for some vs. people that would be faced with 140? 150? winds with possibly higher gusts (?) down in South Miami, Miami Beach, Hollywood, etc.

Regardless of whether the UKMET or ECMWF or NHC ends up being right, time is ticking. Recall that the 12Z European was just off the tip of FL starting to landfall at 96 hours. 96 hours from that run is 7am Sunday morning. As previously discussed, tropical storm conditions and rainbands often arrive a half day/day before the hurricane conditions. So for many people, there is tomorrow and Friday left to get done whatever you need to do. If the EC stays west, people will be starting to go into full on panic mode tomorrow, so the roads will end up being jammed and stores will get picked clean. I'm not really sure what I would do if I lived within a few miles of the coast. It's a really tough call. I'd probably have stuff packed and be ready to go if I had to make that decision. Houses don't do very well in Category 4s and 5s (mobile homes get shredded and splintered), and if I felt even slightly unsafe (or if my kids were young), I'd likely get out. As all of you who live south of the I-10 know, getting N-S on the Peninsula can be a challenge on any day even off of the interstates and Turnpike. It doesn't matter if you're on the A1A, I95, Turnpike, I-75 or US 19 or 98 either. Lots of stop and go.

If you have any doubts, maybe have your stuff together now and wait for the 11:00am package from the NHC tomorrow and the 12Z cycle of the European. If at that point, you're worried about it still coming up through Miami or just west of there (or wherever you might be in Coastal Florida), you should be ready to react. Rule of thumb is clothes for 3 days, medicine for 10-14 days and whatever else you need (pet food, toiletries, etc.). Seal all your photos and videos (books, albums, hanging on the walls) in sealed bins or ziplock type bags. You can't get the old printed ones back.

We're only 30 minutes from the GFS. I'm halfway scared to watch the models tonight.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Buckle up, almost 00z time. My gut says one thing, but lets wait and see.

[Hurricane Andrew]

GFS has initialized...the wind field looks funky, lol

[WeatherLovingDoc]

It's up: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=120

[tolakram]