ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NWgeorgiastormdawg]

More than one Wilmington in the US lol. Savannah is protected by a series of barrier islands:
Tybee Island
Wilmington Island
Whitemarsh Island

Tybee is located just to the south of Hilton Head, SC. Literally...just across the mouth of the Savannah river.

I know the area, didn't know there was a Wilmington island though. Not sure how it's surprising that Savannah would be a potential target though. Unless you're talking about official first landfall. Which is a technicality.

No offense, but you obviously don't know it that well. It's surprising because I lived on Tybee and in Savannah for a long time before we bought in the Keys....the beauty of that area of coastal Georgia was that it hadn't been hit by a hurricane in 150+ years.

And regarding landfall and technicality....Matthew just missed landfall there last year. Hasn't experienced a landfall in a. Very. Long. Time.

Last landfall was David in 1979 as a Cat 2 in Savannah.

[sbcc]

Went to ucf and all gas stations near ucf don't have any gas left. We were waiting in class for 10 minutes and our professor hasn't shown up yet. She sent us an email saying she was stuck in traffic and still 30 minutes away so class is cancelled. I went to target and saw a kid returning canned food, water, candles and flashlights because Wesh 2 said in the afternoon that the models have shifted east and it would miss Orlando. About 3 people were in line wanting to return their hurricane supplies.

This could be a fatal mistake.

They have been posting/tweeting about returns since first shift east was posted this morning.

I flat out do not understand this. Why wouldn't anyone living in hurricane prone areas want to have prep supplies ready to go even if this storm misses them? Why would you return them during hurricane season, or at all?

[Hurricane Andrew]

For the first time in all my decade and a half of tracking hurricanes, I am unnerved. Frances/Jeanne were always going to be North of me, and I knew Wilma would go quickly and probably not be a Major by the time it got to Broward County.

But I've never been more worried than with Irma. This is a monstrosity that will devastate SE FL if the forecast plays out as is. The prospect of being under the eye of a Cat 4 (or worse) in four days is makes me nauseous. I was faced with that prospect last year with Matthew, but the threat feels much more real this time. And while I evacuated Jacksonville for Matthew, it looks like I will be staying put in Fort Lauderdale for Irma. House shutters went up today. House was built year before Andrew, but the roof is less than three years old, so hopefully everything holds.

If this scenario unfolds, SE FL will be changed. I'm taking tomorrow to remember the local landmarks as they currently stand. Maybe I'll get some La Spadas for lunch and Jacksons for desert.

Dude, please be safe. You have been here longer than me, you know how to handle a hurricane, but remember; weather kneels for no man.

[ConvergenceZone]

No hurricane is a good hurricane, but a potential forecasted cat 2 cane land falling in South Carolina is much better than a catastrophic cat 5.

[La Sirena]

I know the area, didn't know there was a Wilmington island though. Not sure how it's surprising that Savannah would be a potential target though. Unless you're talking about official first landfall. Which is a technicality.

No offense, but you obviously don't know it that well. It's surprising because I lived on Tybee and in Savannah for a long time before we bought in the Keys....the beauty of that area of coastal Georgia was that it hadn't been hit by a hurricane in 150+ years.

And regarding landfall and technicality....Matthew just missed landfall there last year. Hasn't experienced a landfall in a. Very. Long. Time.

Last landfall was David in 1979 as a Cat 2 in Savannah.

Thanks! Did it go through Tybee? Ossabaw? Just curious....

[Michele B]

For the first time in all my decade and a half of tracking hurricanes, I am unnerved. Frances/Jeanne were always going to be North of me, and I knew Wilma would go quickly and probably not be a Major by the time it got to Broward County.

But I've never been more worried than with Irma. This is a monstrosity that will devastate SE FL if the forecast plays out as is. The prospect of being under the eye of a Cat 4 (or worse) in four days is makes me nauseous. I was faced with that prospect last year with Matthew, but the threat feels much more real this time. And while I evacuated Jacksonville for Matthew, it looks like I will be staying put in Fort Lauderdale for Irma. House shutters went up today. House was built year before Andrew, but the roof is less than three years old, so hopefully everything holds.

If this scenario unfolds, SE FL will be changed. I'm taking tomorrow to remember the local landmarks as they currently stand. Maybe I'll get some La Spadas for lunch and Jacksons for desert.

LA SPADAS!!!! I haven't thought about them in a very long time. Man, I loved their subs!!!

And Jackson's ice cream...

I hope they both survive...

[Raebie]

More than one Wilmington in the US lol. Savannah is protected by a series of barrier islands:
Tybee Island
Wilmington Island
Whitemarsh Island

Tybee is located just to the south of Hilton Head, SC. Literally...just across the mouth of the Savannah river.

I know the area, didn't know there was a Wilmington island though. Not sure how it's surprising that Savannah would be a potential target though. Unless you're talking about official first landfall. Which is a technicality.

No offense, but you obviously don't know it that well. It's surprising because I lived on Tybee and in Savannah for a long time before we bought in the Keys....the beauty of that area of coastal Georgia was that it hadn't been hit by a hurricane in 150+ years.

And regarding landfall and technicality....Matthew just missed landfall there last year. Hasn't experienced a landfall in a. Very. Long. Time.

Well Matthew did a pretty decent number on Hilton Head last year.

[DCal2K]

Will people living in Miami, outside of the evacuation zones be safe to stay and ride out the storm? I know people living two or three miles west of I-95 outside of the evacuation zone, and they have the impression conditions shouldn't be too bad where they are at. They have been told to stock up on two or three days of water. Seems like only a small percentage of people in Miami-Dade county are being told to evacuate, about 100,000 out of over 2.5M. I want to figure out what kind of danger they are in by staying.

[La Sirena]

I know the area, didn't know there was a Wilmington island though. Not sure how it's surprising that Savannah would be a potential target though. Unless you're talking about official first landfall. Which is a technicality.

No offense, but you obviously don't know it that well. It's surprising because I lived on Tybee and in Savannah for a long time before we bought in the Keys....the beauty of that area of coastal Georgia was that it hadn't been hit by a hurricane in 150+ years.

And regarding landfall and technicality....Matthew just missed landfall there last year. Hasn't experienced a landfall in a. Very. Long. Time.

Well Matthew did a pretty decent number on Hilton Head last year.

And Tybee...they seem better prepared this year.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

For the first time in all my decade and a half of tracking hurricanes, I am unnerved. Frances/Jeanne were always going to be North of me, and I knew Wilma would go quickly and probably not be a Major by the time it got to Broward County.

But I've never been more worried than with Irma.....

I share your fears, Jeremy. I don't know why. Something just feels terribly "off" about this one. I honestly wanted to cry earlier this evening, and I'm not an overly emotional person. I still have many relatives in Florida, including those, I stayed with that fateful summer of 1992, and am very concerned for their safety.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070323
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 35 20170907
031400 1928N 06655W 6963 02416 9148 +201 +084 040012 030 /// /// 03
031430 1927N 06654W 6966 02412 9142 +208 +086 176007 016 /// /// 03
031500 1929N 06653W 6962 02406 9133 +210 +080 129025 031 /// /// 03
031530 1930N 06654W 6974 02394 9136 +205 +080 093034 036 /// /// 03
031600 1929N 06656W 6967 02411 9135 +213 +077 061018 033 /// /// 03
031630 1927N 06655W 6969 02407 9136 +213 +081 225005 012 019 001 03
031700 1926N 06654W 6966 02422 9150 +208 +084 217022 030 031 003 00
031730 1925N 06652W 6969 02434 9177 +196 +086 223041 045 039 002 00
031800 1924N 06651W 6965 02468 9218 +181 +096 226055 058 051 003 00
031830 1923N 06650W 6974 02489 9261 +170 +105 223063 065 060 002 00
031900 1921N 06649W 6974 02524 9295 +170 +104 220074 085 078 002 00
031930 1920N 06647W 6948 02596 9360 +147 +102 227109 118 109 001 03
032000 1919N 06646W 6967 02636 9430 +142 +106 223124 127 115 000 00
032030 1918N 06645W 6971 02689 9497 +131 +106 219118 125 114 002 00
032100 1917N 06644W 6960 02747 9558 +119 +107 219111 116 106 004 00
032130 1916N 06643W 6973 02775 9596 +129 +100 216106 110 100 004 00
032200 1915N 06642W 6963 02818 9639 +124 +090 216101 105 095 001 00
032230 1914N 06641W 6971 02841 9693 +107 +079 214096 099 094 002 00
032300 1913N 06640W 6963 02873 9717 +108 +080 209092 095 089 006 00
032330 1912N 06639W 6967 02888 9752 +095 +088 206091 093 084 008 00
$$
;

SE quad. Pressure 913mb.

[artist]

Storm Carib has a distance from center tool for anyone wishing to use it-

http://stormcarib.com/distance1.htm

[Ptarmigan]

Irma has been a Category 5 for nearly 2 days. It has 185 mph winds for 33 hours!

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905631742391762944




Previous record is Super Typhoon Haiyan.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905632000555474944

[Evil Jeremy]

My guess is that Hurricane Watches go up for SFL (both coasts) and the Keys tomorrow, 11am advisory.

[norva]

I am not sure what to think anymore at this point regarding it's eventual path. It's stressful, I am near Orlando and already prepared but it's frustrating not knowing what to expect. These shifts east we saw earlier I was very skeptical about, but they seem to be trending that way again and tightening up.I just hope people don't get complacent again if it does move east in the next couple days (Although for Miami looks bad either way).

You're prepared and that's all you can do right now! It will shift a few more times in the next few days. You got this!

Thank you lol! I have been through a few hurricanes before, but this one has me more stressed than usual. Emotionally exhausting following it and trying to figure it all out. Hopefully it trends east but I just can't shake that gut feeling/fear of an up the spine run for whatever reason.

[CrazyC83]

No hurricane is a good hurricane, but a potential forecasted cat 2 cane land falling in South Carolina is much better than a catastrophic cat 5.

Storm surge would still be enormous given the water buildup though.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070333
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 36 20170907
032400 1911N 06638W 6980 02891 9770 +099 +091 204093 097 082 016 00
032430 1910N 06637W 6957 02933 9788 +095 +093 207079 089 082 016 00
032500 1909N 06636W 6964 02952 9824 +092 +092 213080 083 076 023 03
032530 1908N 06635W 6975 02953 9839 +093 +093 213079 081 071 016 00
032600 1907N 06634W 6978 02967 9866 +085 +084 213080 082 070 017 00
032630 1906N 06633W 6962 02991 9879 +080 +074 215076 078 068 009 03
032700 1905N 06631W 6973 02991 9901 +078 +078 211076 079 065 020 00
032730 1904N 06630W 6960 03015 9909 +084 +084 208077 079 059 023 03
032800 1903N 06629W 6970 03007 9908 +081 +078 207077 079 058 007 00
032830 1902N 06628W 6964 03028 9913 +087 +076 209074 076 059 006 00
032900 1901N 06627W 6971 03029 9915 +094 +077 213071 074 057 005 00
032930 1859N 06626W 6971 03041 9944 +080 +078 214065 071 056 005 00
033000 1858N 06625W 6967 03048 9935 +091 +077 212064 064 054 003 00
033030 1857N 06623W 6970 03051 9936 +095 +078 212061 063 052 003 00
033100 1856N 06622W 6967 03062 9942 +097 +073 212061 062 052 002 00
033130 1855N 06621W 6966 03071 9950 +098 +068 211058 060 051 003 00
033200 1854N 06620W 6968 03073 9958 +095 +073 209057 058 049 003 00
033230 1853N 06619W 6969 03079 9977 +082 +079 210052 057 048 004 01
033300 1852N 06618W 6970 03081 9970 +094 +068 213053 054 048 003 00
033330 1850N 06616W 6967 03087 9971 +099 +057 214052 053 045 001 00
$$
;

[La Sirena]

I am not sure what to think anymore at this point regarding it's eventual path. It's stressful, I am near Orlando and already prepared but it's frustrating not knowing what to expect. These shifts east we saw earlier I was very skeptical about, but they seem to be trending that way again and tightening up.I just hope people don't get complacent again if it does move east in the next couple days (Although for Miami looks bad either way).

You're prepared and that's all you can do right now! It will shift a few more times in the next few days. You got this!

Thank you lol! I have been through a few hurricanes before, but this one has me more stressed than usual. Emotionally exhausting following it and trying to figure it all out. Hopefully it trends east but I just can't shake that gut feeling/fear of an up the spine run for whatever reason.

Well, the hype doesn't help lol. It is exhausting...we're no longer in Florida and it's wearing us out. Hope your gut is wrong but you've done all you can....watch those models. Actually....don't watch them lol, follow the NHC. I trust them.

[NWgeorgiastormdawg]

No offense, but you obviously don't know it that well. It's surprising because I lived on Tybee and in Savannah for a long time before we bought in the Keys....the beauty of that area of coastal Georgia was that it hadn't been hit by a hurricane in 150+ years.

And regarding landfall and technicality....Matthew just missed landfall there last year. Hasn't experienced a landfall in a. Very. Long. Time.

Last landfall was David in 1979 as a Cat 2 in Savannah.

Thanks! Did it go through Tybee? Ossabaw? Just curious....

It came ashore south of Savannah and took a path that took it right over the city. David had been a Cat 5 that hit the Dominican Republic and killed near 2500 people there.

[Blinhart]

Has anyone heard what the cruiselines are doing with the cruises that are out right now and the ones that were suppose to be leaving this weekend since the Port of Miami is in a mandatory evacuation zone.