ATL: IRMA - Models

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

trend from previous run

[Hurricane Andrew]

Exact same at HR24...hmm...

[AutoPenalti]

A hair slower compared to 18z, trough looks just a tad weaker.

Does the finger ridge look stronger?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Nope, slightly east at Hr24. Gotta look at the H500 to be sure...

[NFLnut]

24 HR looks a TAD (and I mean, even a micron off of a tad) north of the 11pm NHC.

[im g]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090700/gfs_z500a_atl_5.png[/img]

[Steve]

The northeastern trough has been looking a bit wider on some of the recent runs before it lifts out. As the major factor expected to turn Irma from the WNW to the NW later, I thought that was noteworthy at 18 hours.

Here is one of the National Hurricane Center's in-house model products which is the experimental earliest time for tropical storm force winds. That helps back up (or even speed up) the point of potentially not having that much time to get remaining things done.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 4#contents

What it appears from the NHC track is that it doesn't get quite far enough out into the ocean for long enough to re-intensify. Their track is fairly close to the UKMET but comes off Florida farther south. That's 96 hours which I think is 175 mile error range, so either could be correct. NHC's track stays with a west heading until 2nd landfall which most of the models have also shown.

Early in the GFS, it looks like it's jumping around the islands a bit but is taking a left hook at 30 hours.

[Spacecoast]

According to weather.us, the Euro seems to weaken Irma right after Miami/ Ft Laud latitude with wide inland gusts of >100mph. Whereas the GFS seems to keep Irma strong as it rides up the coast, but with lower inland gusts.

Don't know which is more accurate wrt to wind speed.

[Steve]

That's pretty frightening man.

(snipped)

We're only 30 minutes from the GFS. I'm halfway scared to watch the models tonight.

Dude! Not trying to be a jerk, but there are a lot of us who are also very concerned with these swings. No need to elevate the stress! Let's just wait for the models.

Haha. Sorry man. The NHC's 11:00pm discussion was out, and it was pretty ominous. The models are just there to support that. GFS still looks to be hooking off toward the FL Straits at 36 hours.

It almost looks to be stair-stepping through 48 hours.

[NDG]

Slightly further south at 42 hrs, slightly stronger ridging to the north compared to previous 18z run.

[tolakram]

[Hurricane Andrew]

Why is the pressure so much weaker this run? Resolution error? It initialized at 968, lol.

[NDG]

So far this GFS run is very close to yesterday's 12z run. So I would a expect a shift west closer to SE FL compared to the last 18z run.

Edit: It ends up being to the right of yesterday's 12z run.

[tolakram]

[Hurricane Andrew]

NHC made a good call in holding serve...

[Steve]

The GFS is really dropping the pressure between Cuba and Florida. I don't know if it's just a fluke (talking -30mb from where it's running at) or if the conditions just SE of FL are that great. On that track it would certainly landfall as a Cat 5 in SE FL unless the GFS keeps it out to sea.

Pressure creeps up a little to like 905mb at 78 hours moving very close to potential landfall in Miami.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

[tolakram]

[tgenius]

The concern I have is that with GFS being right biased and almost clipping the coast, that we end up with a storm going up the spine when all is said and done :/

[SouthFloridawx]

How does a high pressure erode in just 6 hours?

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Big shift east off of coast at 84H