ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Will people living in Miami, outside of the evacuation zones be safe to stay and ride out the storm? I know people living two or three miles west of I-95 outside of the evacuation zone, and they have the impression conditions shouldn't be too bad where they are at. They have been told to stock up on two or three days of water. Seems like only a small percentage of people in Miami-Dade county are being told to evacuate, about 100,000 out of over 2.5M. I want to figure out what kind of danger they are in by staying.

Are you asking a question for them? Did an official source tell them not to evacuate, or is it just not mandatory?

[Blinhart]

When do you guys think that Zone C & D in Miami-Dade be issued mandatory evacuation? Do you think they will do the rest of Miami-Dade? Since they have already done Zone A & B, how many people does that involve?

[ConvergenceZone]

No hurricane is a good hurricane, but a potential forecasted cat 2 cane land falling in South Carolina is much better than a catastrophic cat 5.

Storm surge would still be enormous given the water buildup though.

Agreed, the storm surge is what's going to be bad.....Not the rainfall, since it's moving so fast. It's no Harvey, but a cat 1 or cat 2 making landfall in South Carolina will still stir up a large storm surge that's for sure......

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 070328
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 07/03:01:50Z
B. 19 deg 24 min N
066 deg 51 min W
C. 700 mb 2368 m
D. 149 kt
E. 317 deg 13 nm
F. 042 deg 144 kt
G. 316 deg 14 nm
H. 920 mb
I. 9 C / 3051 m
J. 21 C / 3027 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. SPIRAL BAND
M. C18
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 1511A IRMA OB 13
MAX FL WIND 163 KT 090 / 34 NM 01:17:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 220 / 21 KT
;

[Hurricane Andrew]

I accidentally got my fire captain hooked to weather model watching...what have I done.

[Blinhart]

Will people living in Miami, outside of the evacuation zones be safe to stay and ride out the storm? I know people living two or three miles west of I-95 outside of the evacuation zone, and they have the impression conditions shouldn't be too bad where they are at. They have been told to stock up on two or three days of water. Seems like only a small percentage of people in Miami-Dade county are being told to evacuate, about 100,000 out of over 2.5M. I want to figure out what kind of danger they are in by staying.

Are you asking a question for them? Did an official source tell them not to evacuate, or is it just not mandatory?

I really hope it wasn't an official source that told them to get only 2 or 3 days of water, it should of been 2 or 3 months of water and food, because there is a chance they will be without basic essential items for that long.

[DCal2K]

Will people living in Miami, outside of the evacuation zones be safe to stay and ride out the storm? I know people living two or three miles west of I-95 outside of the evacuation zone, and they have the impression conditions shouldn't be too bad where they are at. They have been told to stock up on two or three days of water. Seems like only a small percentage of people in Miami-Dade county are being told to evacuate, about 100,000 out of over 2.5M. I want to figure out what kind of danger they are in by staying.

Are you asking a question for them? Did an official source tell them not to evacuate, or is it just not mandatory?

I am asking because I was concerned they are staying put. Sorry, I mistyped before. As far as I know no one is being told NOT to leave. They are just not part of the current evacuation zone.

[jasons2k]

I have not had time to post much as I am on information intake overload tonight, and I've been texting a lot of folks down in Florida about this.

The NHC track, or very close to it, looks good to me. A well-respected met I know believes Irma will make a run for Sub-900 in the FL Straits, but the winds will decrease slightly as Irma expands in size and is affected by some shear just prior to landfall. At this point, probably splitting hairs in terms of landfall intensity. It be a very large hurricane with far-reaching impacts. The size and angle of approach will make the surge worse than Andrew.

I'm deathly afraid SE Florida is about to get raked over the coals. If I lived in Monroe, Miami-Dade, or Broward, I would leave. Period. I would have left already. I'm hearing horror stories from friends taking 7 hours to get to Orlando and not able to find any gas to continue.

So prayers for my friends down there. I am cautiously optimistic my family in the bay area will be OK, with Irma just far enough east to spare them major impacts.

I'm pretty nervous about what's gonna happen to the Sea Islands and the Low Country. I lived on Wilmington Island for four years in the 80's (yes, it does exist). Beautiful place with lots of huge live oaks everywhere. I guess the saving grace is the NHC forecast no longer has it as a major at that latitude.

I've spent the night warning everyone I can. Again, if you live in Monroe, Miami-Dade, or Broward, you should leave unless you are emergency personnel with a safe shelter or have a life-or-death reason to stick around. This is not a storm or situation to play around with, storm chase, or sight-see.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070343
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 37 20170907
033400 1849N 06615W 6970 03090 9977 +100 +056 209050 052 043 000 00
033430 1848N 06614W 6969 03096 9982 +098 +051 207051 051 042 001 00
033500 1847N 06613W 6969 03098 9980 +105 +046 211050 050 041 001 00
033530 1846N 06612W 6969 03100 9984 +103 +048 212049 050 039 000 00
033600 1845N 06610W 6969 03103 9993 +096 +062 211047 050 040 001 00
033630 1843N 06609W 6976 03104 0018 +083 +067 207043 045 040 007 00
033700 1842N 06608W 6967 03113 0021 +082 +062 203046 048 036 004 00
033730 1841N 06607W 6970 03109 0030 +073 +066 204047 049 041 006 00
033800 1840N 06606W 6966 03117 0022 +082 +067 201046 047 037 002 03
033830 1839N 06605W 6972 03117 0024 +086 +070 199046 047 037 003 03
033900 1838N 06603W 6970 03120 0027 +085 +068 197047 047 030 005 00
033930 1837N 06602W 6970 03120 0017 +094 +062 194046 047 032 005 00
034000 1836N 06601W 6966 03126 0017 +096 +067 202048 050 033 001 03
034030 1835N 06600W 6973 03125 0030 +092 +063 202054 054 033 001 03
034100 1834N 06558W 6968 03136 0040 +089 +049 201053 054 032 000 00
034130 1833N 06556W 6966 03144 0036 +098 +049 199049 052 029 000 03
034200 1833N 06555W 6974 03138 0037 +101 +045 197050 050 029 000 00
034230 1832N 06553W 6969 03148 0041 +100 +049 194048 049 027 002 00
034300 1831N 06552W 6970 03148 0037 +104 +039 195049 050 033 003 03
034330 1831N 06550W 6970 03149 0032 +110 +040 197048 049 036 002 03
$$
;

[La Sirena]

Last landfall was David in 1979 as a Cat 2 in Savannah.

Thanks! Did it go through Tybee? Ossabaw? Just curious....

It came ashore south of Savannah and took a path that took it right over the city. David had been a Cat 5 that hit the Dominican Republic and killed near 2500 people there.

That's crazy! 2500? Wow. Sounds like it would have perhaps come over Ossabaw. So many barrier islands in Georgia.

[tolakram]

Will people living in Miami, outside of the evacuation zones be safe to stay and ride out the storm? I know people living two or three miles west of I-95 outside of the evacuation zone, and they have the impression conditions shouldn't be too bad where they are at. They have been told to stock up on two or three days of water. Seems like only a small percentage of people in Miami-Dade county are being told to evacuate, about 100,000 out of over 2.5M. I want to figure out what kind of danger they are in by staying.

Are you asking a question for them? Did an official source tell them not to evacuate, or is it just not mandatory?

I am asking because I was concerned they are staying put. Sorry, I mistyped before. As far as I know no one is being told NOT to leave. They are just not part of the current evacuation zone.

Gotcha. I reread your first (moderated) and second post and finally figured out it was a typo. Sorry, I can't answer the question. In my opinion evacuation, a short vacation somewhere north, is the best plan just due to the unknowns.

[AutoPenalti]

We had another family discussion.


Looks like we are about to evacuate.

[HDGator]

Will people living in Miami, outside of the evacuation zones be safe to stay and ride out the storm? I know people living two or three miles west of I-95 outside of the evacuation zone, and they have the impression conditions shouldn't be too bad where they are at. They have been told to stock up on two or three days of water. Seems like only a small percentage of people in Miami-Dade county are being told to evacuate, about 100,000 out of over 2.5M. I want to figure out what kind of danger they are in by staying.

It depends on the ultimate track. Watch the NHC and follow local evacuation orders. Current evacuations are based on staged evacuation of those most vulnerable to surge impacts. There is no effort to evacuate those potentially exposed to wind damage. It's not physically possible to evacuate everyone in the path of a cat4/cat5 in South Florida based on potential wind damage. That's why everyone is being encouraged to shelter within their county of residence when they are in a surge evacuation zone.

That being said, there is a big difference between sheltering in place in a cat1/cat2 vs a cat4/cat5. If they are not comfortable with the potential need to take care of themselves (water, food, shelter) after a catastrophic strike, then now is the time to go. I can't be more blunt than that.

[artist]

Barb (msbee) posted they are ok on stormcarib. You can see her post of the damage.

[rolldamntoad]

Went to ucf and all gas stations near ucf don't have any gas left. We were waiting in class for 10 minutes and our professor hasn't shown up yet. She sent us an email saying she was stuck in traffic and still 30 minutes away so class is cancelled. I went to target and saw a kid returning canned food, water, candles and flashlights because Wesh 2 said in the afternoon that the models have shifted east and it would miss Orlando. About 3 people were in line wanting to return their hurricane supplies.

This could be a fatal mistake.

I agree, it is a really bad decision, and I don't want to get political, but the plain and simple truth is that many people cannot AFFORD to purchase unnecessary items. If it turns out they won't be needed, that money may be needed somewhere else

Caught between a rock and a hard place...

I'm sure most would want to keep the items if they could afford it.

You just kind of have to hope maybe they're gonna use the money for gas to get the heck out.

[Evil Jeremy]

We had another family discussion.


Looks like we are about to evacuate.

Where are you based out of?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070353
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 38 20170907
034400 1830N 06548W 6969 03149 0037 +106 +025 198048 049 034 003 00
034430 1829N 06547W 6973 03148 0030 +115 +023 200046 048 029 001 03
034500 1828N 06545W 6966 03165 0030 +123 +020 189043 044 028 001 00
034530 1828N 06544W 6970 03169 0052 +115 +035 187045 045 027 001 00
034600 1827N 06543W 6962 03178 0071 +099 +037 191048 050 025 002 00
034630 1826N 06541W 6967 03169 0065 +100 +028 186047 049 025 001 00
034700 1825N 06540W 6970 03162 0055 +105 +026 184049 049 027 001 00
034730 1824N 06538W 6967 03164 0039 +115 +023 180049 049 031 000 03
034800 1823N 06537W 6970 03160 0034 +120 +020 181049 049 056 001 03
034830 1823N 06536W 6968 03162 0032 +122 +018 182048 049 /// /// 03
034900 1822N 06535W 6967 03161 0029 +123 +019 181047 048 043 000 03
034930 1820N 06534W 6970 03160 0036 +120 +018 183047 047 058 000 00
035000 1819N 06534W 6970 03161 0042 +115 +020 183046 047 040 000 00
035030 1818N 06533W 6967 03164 0049 +110 +023 182045 045 038 001 00
035100 1816N 06533W 6970 03166 0053 +110 +023 182044 044 036 000 00
035130 1815N 06532W 6970 03166 0056 +109 +022 183044 044 035 000 00
035200 1813N 06532W 6970 03167 0060 +105 +025 184043 044 034 000 03
035230 1812N 06531W 6969 03170 0063 +103 +025 185041 042 033 000 00
035300 1812N 06531W 6969 03170 0060 +107 +024 187041 041 033 000 03
035330 1810N 06530W 6971 03167 0054 +111 +022 187043 043 030 000 03
$$
;

[SootyTern]

No hurricane is a good hurricane, but a potential forecasted cat 2 cane land falling in South Carolina is much better than a catastrophic cat 5.

Storm surge would still be enormous given the water buildup though.

Agreed, the storm surge is what's going to be bad.....Not the rainfall, since it's moving so fast. It's no Harvey, but a cat 1 or cat 2 making landfall in South Carolina will still stir up a large storm surge that's for sure......

Irma probably will be pushing a storm surge much larger than cat 1 or 2 even if the winds drop down. Be real careful up there!

[AutoPenalti]

We had another family discussion.


Looks like we are about to evacuate.

Where are you based out of?

We are located in Margate, about 1/2km east of the turnpike, next to Broward College

[arkestra]

Looks like having annular characteristics.