ATL: IRMA - Models

[Blinhart]

The GFS is really dropping the pressure between Cuba and Florida. I don't know if it's just a fluke (talking 30+mb from where it's running at) or if the conditions just SE of FL are that great. On that track it would certainly landfall as a Cat 5 in SE FL unless the GFS keeps it out to sea.

I really think the conditions are that damn good. And it wouldn't be out to sea, it would be just unleashing a she monster to the Gulf Coast if she some how makes it through the Florida Straits without the Eye touching any land.

I'm afraid to see what would happen if she makes it through the Straits into the Gulf at a pressure around 895 and an expanding wind field, this thing would set the record for the most people evacuated by one storm, because all those people from South Florida would have guests from the Central Gulf region.

[Aric Dunn]

How does a high pressure erode in just 6 hours?

the better question is how much pumping up of the ridge does IRMA provide with a ever increasing outflow? current models only need a couple hours longer before the turn to come ashore.. soo yeah.. not looking good..

[tolakram]

Speed change is about it so far.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Based on the GFS run and the comment the poster just made, Irma going through the Gulf Stream could very well strengthen

[Javlin]

This shortwave what is it ?that is suppose to be in MS/AL area?Is it what I see in the loop up over Montana right now?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

[joey]

The concern I have is that with GFS being right biased and almost clipping the coast, that we end up with a storm going up the spine when all is said and done :/

Yes too many close calls now add that with the wobbles and well

[WilmingtonSandbar]

The GFS is really dropping the pressure between Cuba and Florida. I don't know if it's just a fluke (talking 30+mb from where it's running at) or if the conditions just SE of FL are that great. On that track it would certainly landfall as a Cat 5 in SE FL unless the GFS keeps it out to sea.

I really think the conditions are that damn good. And it wouldn't be out to sea, it would be just unleashing a she monster to the Gulf Coast if she some how makes it through the Florida Straits without the Eye touching any land.

I'm afraid to see what would happen if she makes it through the Straits into the Gulf at a pressure around 895 and an expanding wind field, this thing would set the record for the most people evacuated by one storm, because all those people from South Florida would have guests from the Central Gulf region.

Not going anywhere near the Gulf this run.

[tgenius]

How does a high pressure erode in just 6 hours?

the better question is how much pumping up of the ridge does IRMA provide with a ever increasing outflow? current models only need a couple hours longer before the turn to come ashore.. soo yeah.. not looking good..

Aric so your inferring that you are not buying that dramatic north shift off the coast?

[p1nheadlarry]

How does a high pressure erode in just 6 hours?

Likes the shortwave I guess

[tolakram]

Hmmm

[SouthFloridawx]

Have we seen such a 90 degree turn like this? There is a little slowing down, but there is a ridge and wnw motion, then almost completely due north.

How does a high pressure erode in just 6 hours?

the better question is how much pumping up of the ridge does IRMA provide with a ever increasing outflow? current models only need a couple hours longer before the turn to come ashore.. soo yeah.. not looking good..

[AutoPenalti]

I honestly don't believe that a shortwave can erode a ridge that quickly...

[BobHarlem]

Something seems badly off kilter with this run, starting with the 970mb initialization, and the weird track around Florida with that erosion.

[tolakram]

Due north now.

[Aric Dunn]

How does a high pressure erode in just 6 hours?

the better question is how much pumping up of the ridge does IRMA provide with a ever increasing outflow? current models only need a couple hours longer before the turn to come ashore.. soo yeah.. not looking good..

Aric so your inferring that you are not buying that dramatic north shift off the coast?

I would if it was more gradual.. it just sort of stops then turns. normally there is a distinct slow down then turn.. especially since it is moving at 12 to 15 mph.. you just cant turn that fast without slowly a lot..

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905641884504096770



Ryan Maue ✔ @RyanMaue
GFS init of Hurricane #Irma at 967 mb not one of its best efforts.
12:00 AM - Sep 7, 2017

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm not trying to imply anything. I really want to know if the trough can erode the ridge, that has the storm moving at 16mph wnw... slowing down a little and then a sharp turn to the north? Don't they usually slow down around the sw periphery of the ridge... take time to do that?? That's a pretty dramatic movement north.

[Steve]

You can't be 100% sure, but I really think the GFS is too far east again. If it ends up being right, more power to it. What it will do is save the Cat 4/5 hit for the GA/SC Coasts. NHC has them at Cat 2 conditions on their track.

High pressure is building in over Ontario at 102 hours. So under the GFS's scenario, it will landfall.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=398

Edit: yep. Moving toward the central SC Coast. GFS a hair too far east I think in the first part, not sure about 2nd but the NHC is farther south and west.

[tolakram]

Always drama with the GFS. Let's get the storm far enough offshore so that it can be stronger heading into SC.

[p1nheadlarry]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905641884504096770



Ryan Maue ✔ @RyanMaue
GFS init of Hurricane #Irma at 967 mb not one of its best efforts.
12:00 AM - Sep 7, 2017

How does this work? Do they just "plug in a value" for the location on a grid? Or are the initial conditions that go into the model produce this at t=0?