ATL: IRMA - Models

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Why would the storm be weaker if there is no shear, dry air, no land interaction, and the water temps in the Gulf Stream are very warm? We have had cat 4s in NC. GFS could be wrong, but many said the same about a 185 mph hurricane going through the Leewards as well.

There is land interaction with the east coast that could take some punch out of it. Remember that is isn't always about just where the eye passes.

[Vdogg]

Due north through NC and VA. A serious storm for the east sides of both states.

[Hurricane Andrew]

If the UKIE goes west, I expect the ECM to as well, or at least hold serve. Interested to see the GFSENS,

[Raebie]

BIG TIME west shift by the UKMET

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 07.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N 65.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.09.2017 0 19.2N 65.9W 958 79
1200UTC 07.09.2017 12 20.2N 69.0W 959 75
0000UTC 08.09.2017 24 21.0N 71.9W 945 87
1200UTC 08.09.2017 36 21.6N 74.3W 950 85
0000UTC 09.09.2017 48 21.7N 76.4W 942 85
1200UTC 09.09.2017 60 21.9N 78.6W 952 81
0000UTC 10.09.2017 72 22.4N 80.3W 951 80
1200UTC 10.09.2017 84 23.2N 81.1W 941 83
0000UTC 11.09.2017 96 24.5N 81.4W 926 91
1200UTC 11.09.2017 108 26.1N 81.3W 923 84
0000UTC 12.09.2017 120 28.4N 81.0W 949 78
1200UTC 12.09.2017 132 30.8N 80.8W 959 69
0000UTC 13.09.2017 144 32.9N 80.4W 974 49

OK, I give the hell up. I have no idea where this is going. No idea what to tell my kid in Wilmington at this point. Based on some of the runs, it might be worse here in Charlotte than it will be there.

[PTPatrick]

The bend back nw toward SC is what has me scratching my head. It just seems odd that a cat 5 storm would barrel toward Miami, come just offshore, turn on a dime then roll north for a bit and the resume a nnw motion. I mean I guess storms can do anything...it just seems like an odd track I've never seen in that area. Used to storms in the gulf doing weird stuff and turning on a dime or stalling. It just seems odd and I wonder if the real life net effect is going to be more of a smooth curve up the coast of FL with a slight curve back nw at the end and no palm beach saving swing east.

Having said that, god bless SC if it happens. It would be their Katrina surge wise. I mean Hugo was kind of already their Katrina. But then Camille was Mississippi's Katrina before Katrina. We always thought it couldn't be worse, until it was.

[AdamFirst]

Another windshield wiper of a run by the GFS. Still a bad day for southeast Florida

[SFLcane]

Can someone put together a graphic for the 00z UKMET?

[ConvergenceZone]

Why would the storm be weaker if there is no shear, dry air, no land interaction, and the water temps in the Gulf Stream are very warm? We have had cat 4s in NC. GFS could be wrong, but many said the same about a 185 mph hurricane going through the Leewards as well.

I was wondering the same thing initially as it didn't make sense, but then I heard on the tropical weather report that the forecast of increased shear suppose to take a big bite out of it, hence the reduction from a cat 5 down to a cat 2

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Can someone put together a graphic for the 00z UKMET?

Makes landfall in Cuba, then SW FL, heads NE across the state, and then exits the state.

[nascarfan999]

Can someone put together a graphic for the 00z UKMET?

[brghteys1216]

UK Met landfalls around everglades city, and reemerges into Atlantic near cape canavarel

[Evil Jeremy]

Can someone put together a graphic for the 00z UKMET?

SFWMD is always your friend: https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_11.gif

[PTPatrick]

I can't do a ukmet map but it looks like it gets to southeast of Key west, crossed keys, hits Monroe county and moves it nne to end up in SC after all.

It could be a worse run....as bad as it could be for the keys it would spare cat 4/5 winds from millions of people keeping them ainly in the keys and Everglades. And it would save SC a Hugo like storm surge Not saying I believe it. It's the difference between counting damage in 10s of billions vs hundreds.

[Ken711]

Can someone put together a graphic for the 00z UKMET?

Makes landfall in Cuba, then SW FL, heads NE across the state, and then exits the state.

And makes another landfall where?

[SFLcane]

That is very similar to the 12z ECMWF

[adam0983]

The models are all over the place

[Raebie]

These GFS 100mi shifts in center location 4-5 days out from run to run are frankly unacceptable. You'd think we were in the 80s era with CLPR and LBAR models.

And every 6 freakin hours!

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like if we average out the UKMET and GFS, it's still pretty much in the metro Dade and Broward area.

[SouthFloridawx]

Here's the Navgem for what it's worth:

[La Sirena]

Can someone put together a graphic for the 00z UKMET?

Well, the Keys would catch the dirty side of that