ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[rickybobby]

Per Wesh 2 central Florida will be under a hurricane watch by 5 pm tomorrow.

[AdamFirst]

Per Wesh 2 central Florida will be under a hurricane watch by 5 pm tomorrow.

That's a fair assessment IMO. South FL & Keys will likely be under watches at 5 AM, 11 at the latest.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070443
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 43 20170907
043400 2031N 06546W 6971 03151 0046 +104 +025 129061 062 044 000 00
043430 2030N 06547W 6967 03157 0051 +097 +039 132063 064 044 001 00
043500 2029N 06549W 6970 03147 0048 +095 +047 132064 065 044 003 00
043530 2028N 06551W 6965 03149 0046 +094 +052 129064 065 045 003 00
043600 2027N 06552W 6970 03142 0046 +093 +051 131065 066 046 002 00
043630 2026N 06554W 6966 03142 0039 +094 +054 135064 065 047 003 00
043700 2026N 06555W 6974 03131 0033 +095 +054 135066 067 048 002 00
043730 2025N 06557W 6962 03148 0047 +082 +069 137070 072 047 012 03
043800 2024N 06559W 6980 03115 0028 +091 +074 145064 069 047 012 03
043830 2023N 06600W 6943 03163 0030 +090 +071 134064 067 045 017 03
043900 2022N 06602W 6972 03125 0041 +081 +074 130067 068 045 004 00
043930 2021N 06603W 6965 03131 0025 +093 +068 129066 067 045 001 00
044000 2020N 06605W 6974 03121 0020 +099 +044 132070 070 048 002 00
044030 2019N 06607W 6966 03125 0017 +096 +036 131071 071 050 001 00
044100 2018N 06608W 6973 03117 0006 +105 +031 133070 071 049 001 00
044130 2017N 06610W 6968 03120 0008 +101 +034 136071 071 052 000 00
044200 2016N 06612W 6968 03117 0003 +104 +027 138073 073 052 001 00
044230 2015N 06613W 6970 03110 9991 +111 +023 137074 074 052 001 00
044300 2014N 06615W 6967 03109 9990 +105 +021 136075 075 053 000 00
044330 2013N 06616W 6973 03099 9990 +102 +021 137075 076 053 001 00
$$
;

[Evenstar]

Irma is one more in a long and illustrious line of infamous "I"-named storms. The voodoo priestess in me says this is not a coincidence...
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... since-2000

I mean as long as we go in alphabetical naming order it isn't that surprising that "I" would more likely show up during peak times and thus be more likely to be stronger.

Yes, but that wouldn't be nearly as interesting as blaming voodoo.

In other words, don't be ruining my supernatural weather theories with your perfectly logical explanations...

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Whats the word on marion county? Have some family there

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070453
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 44 20170907
044400 2012N 06618W 6967 03102 9989 +099 +028 137075 076 054 001 00
044430 2011N 06619W 6967 03096 9981 +100 +038 136074 074 054 001 00
044500 2010N 06621W 6971 03087 9980 +098 +042 134075 075 053 001 00
044530 2009N 06623W 6970 03089 9969 +106 +033 133076 077 054 001 00
044600 2008N 06624W 6969 03082 9961 +108 +033 133078 079 056 001 00
044630 2007N 06626W 6970 03082 9959 +107 +035 132078 080 055 001 00
044700 2006N 06628W 6970 03078 9960 +103 +047 135076 079 057 002 00
044730 2005N 06629W 6971 03073 9958 +103 +044 134076 078 057 002 00
044800 2005N 06631W 6970 03070 9954 +103 +036 134078 079 055 003 00
044830 2004N 06632W 6969 03069 9950 +103 +037 133081 083 056 002 00
044900 2003N 06634W 6967 03067 9948 +100 +040 134082 083 057 001 00
044930 2002N 06636W 6969 03057 9934 +106 +037 133080 082 057 002 00
045000 2001N 06637W 6967 03056 9932 +102 +042 131085 085 060 001 00
045030 2000N 06639W 6969 03048 9925 +103 +050 129083 085 058 003 00
045100 1959N 06640W 6967 03045 9950 +075 +061 129087 088 061 006 00
045130 1958N 06642W 6970 03035 9954 +069 +064 131088 089 065 012 00
045200 1957N 06644W 6962 03036 9941 +074 +074 137093 095 063 021 03
045230 1956N 06645W 6966 03025 9929 +079 +079 141089 094 061 041 03
045300 1955N 06647W 6966 03017 9914 +080 +080 140089 090 069 007 00
045330 1954N 06648W 6970 03006 9893 +090 +080 141093 095 073 007 00
$$
;

[joey]

Irma has been a Category 5 for nearly 2 days. It has 185 mph winds for 33 hours!

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905631742391762944




Previous record is Super Typhoon Haiyan.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905632000555474944

yep i think the record is 3 days will she break it

[PTPatrick]

I have concern that many people in Miami and Fort Lauderdale think they went thru the real deal in Andrew, and Same goes for all of the palm beach folk with Wilma. Hopefully people realize that this will be Wilma on steroids if current tracks verify.


On another note, I am getting more concerned for weakening in the short term that could cause people to think, oh this is weakening, not a cat 5 anymore, etc. the reality is the area around south Florida is so notorious for rapid strengthening, it may well rally on landfall even if it takes a couple days "off". some 4s and 5s have done that.

[floridasun78]

Per Wesh 2 central Florida will be under a hurricane watch by 5 pm tomorrow.

nhc say that likely i am in miami i going under one too

[floridasun78]

I have concern that many people in Miami and Fort Lauderdale think they went thru the real deal in Andrew, and Same goes for all of the palm beach folk with Wilma. Hopefully people realize that this will be Wilma on steroids if current tracks verify.


On another note, I am getting more concerned for weakening in the short term that could cause people to think, oh this is weakening, not a cat 5 anymore, etc. the reality is the area around south Florida is so notorious for rapid strengthening, it may well rally on landfall even if it takes a couple days "off". some 4s and 5s have done that.

what i seen people are getting ready after saw Texas hurr

[abajan]

This is what it was like in St Thomas USVI.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070503
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 45 20170907
045400 1953N 06650W 6967 03000 9886 +087 +073 141098 099 071 008 00
045430 1952N 06651W 6974 02983 9877 +086 +071 141101 102 075 009 00
045500 1951N 06653W 6963 02984 9870 +080 +072 140103 104 075 011 00
045530 1951N 06654W 6972 02964 9848 +090 +071 141108 111 082 007 00
045600 1950N 06656W 6965 02955 9840 +082 +063 139113 114 082 011 00
045630 1949N 06657W 6981 02921 9831 +073 +070 137115 117 082 015 00
045700 1948N 06658W 6978 02913 9807 +082 +082 143114 120 087 035 00
045730 1947N 06700W 6976 02902 9784 +091 +091 145117 121 092 019 00
045800 1946N 06701W 6971 02884 9746 +101 +086 143122 124 095 008 00
045830 1946N 06702W 6963 02873 9723 +099 +087 140125 126 101 005 00
045900 1945N 06704W 6972 02839 9687 +109 +089 140126 128 103 006 00
045930 1944N 06705W 6959 02831 9661 +108 +090 142128 129 104 002 00
050000 1943N 06707W 6975 02782 9638 +101 +097 141137 139 107 001 00
050030 1942N 06708W 6966 02754 9579 +119 +092 144144 145 114 007 00
050100 1942N 06709W 6948 02743 9546 +112 +102 147140 145 119 009 00
050130 1941N 06710W 6975 02680 9503 +121 +107 158131 135 122 002 03
050200 1940N 06711W 6982 02624 9450 +129 +104 161123 127 /// /// 03
050230 1939N 06713W 6965 02621 9410 +138 +108 163115 122 /// /// 03
050300 1939N 06714W 6961 02601 9382 +141 +110 166110 115 097 000 03
050330 1938N 06715W 6972 02561 9339 +155 +108 168103 106 097 000 03
$$
;

145 kt FL, 122 kt SFMR. Haven't hit eye yet.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like it has finally weakened. though still a cat 5..

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070513
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 46 20170907
050400 1938N 06716W 6982 02507 9287 +171 +111 166089 100 089 000 00
050430 1937N 06718W 6968 02490 9245 +179 +112 169072 080 080 001 00
050500 1937N 06720W 6976 02461 9228 +176 +112 166055 067 064 002 00
050530 1936N 06721W 6974 02444 9210 +173 +109 159039 049 050 002 00
050600 1936N 06723W 6974 02432 9185 +189 +101 150023 033 040 002 03
050630 1935N 06725W 6980 02415 9173 +196 +093 158009 016 029 002 00
050700 1934N 06726W 6966 02436 9174 +199 +080 253007 011 029 002 00
050730 1932N 06727W 6969 02443 9187 +195 +080 289022 026 034 003 03
050800 1933N 06729W 6971 02443 9195 +185 +084 325019 025 /// /// 03
050830 1934N 06729W 6957 02453 9181 +193 +077 011011 017 027 004 03
050900 1935N 06727W 6972 02433 9177 +196 +077 151003 008 022 001 00
050930 1935N 06725W 6970 02429 9178 +192 +082 182020 027 033 003 00
051000 1935N 06723W 6983 02423 9197 +179 +091 183040 048 035 003 03
051030 1936N 06722W 6972 02441 9207 +170 +095 162050 052 /// /// 03
051100 1938N 06724W 6950 02460 9190 +180 +086 133042 050 /// /// 03
051130 1938N 06726W 6948 02455 9176 +188 +083 103028 036 028 003 03
051200 1936N 06727W 6974 02417 9169 +193 +081 075014 023 022 002 00
051230 1935N 06728W 6971 02422 9170 +196 +079 337012 017 027 002 00
051300 1933N 06729W 6967 02440 9192 +183 +087 312027 032 035 002 00
051330 1932N 06730W 6967 02457 9213 +180 +086 305044 052 046 002 00
$$
;

Pressure 917mb.

[Aric Dunn]

well on a side note.. it is in the goes 16 conus view now so cool ...

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and14.html

[CryHavoc]

This is what it was like in St Thomas USVI.

That might be the most incredible hurricane footage I have ever watched.

Though I doubt he'd be so confident in the structure of that building if he were in an EF4/EF5 tornado.

[MatthewsRevenge]

looks like it has finally weakened. though still a cat 5..

Let's hope. But do look out if it strengthens a little when it comes closer to the Bahamas and Cuba.

[Bocadude85]

This very well could be a decent analog for Irma

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1945_Atlantic_hurricane_season#/media/File%3A1945_Atlantic_hurricane_9_track.png

[ConvergenceZone]

looks like it has finally weakened. though still a cat 5..

Yea, I'm sure it will still be a cat 5 for quite awhile longer, before the slow decline to cat 2 off the coast of South Carolina.....They said on the weather report that it could weaken to a cat 1 before impact around the SC vicinity.... but a cat 2 is more likely......Hopefully the shear will be even stronger than it's forecast be towards the end of the forecast period and weaken it even further

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070513
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 46 20170907
050400 1938N 06716W 6982 02507 9287 +171 +111 166089 100 089 000 00
050430 1937N 06718W 6968 02490 9245 +179 +112 169072 080 080 001 00
050500 1937N 06720W 6976 02461 9228 +176 +112 166055 067 064 002 00
050530 1936N 06721W 6974 02444 9210 +173 +109 159039 049 050 002 00
050600 1936N 06723W 6974 02432 9185 +189 +101 150023 033 040 002 03
050630 1935N 06725W 6980 02415 9173 +196 +093 158009 016 029 002 00
050700 1934N 06726W 6966 02436 9174 +199 +080 253007 011 029 002 00
050730 1932N 06727W 6969 02443 9187 +195 +080 289022 026 034 003 03
050800 1933N 06729W 6971 02443 9195 +185 +084 325019 025 /// /// 03
050830 1934N 06729W 6957 02453 9181 +193 +077 011011 017 027 004 03
050900 1935N 06727W 6972 02433 9177 +196 +077 151003 008 022 001 00
050930 1935N 06725W 6970 02429 9178 +192 +082 182020 027 033 003 00
051000 1935N 06723W 6983 02423 9197 +179 +091 183040 048 035 003 03
051030 1936N 06722W 6972 02441 9207 +170 +095 162050 052 /// /// 03
051100 1938N 06724W 6950 02460 9190 +180 +086 133042 050 /// /// 03
051130 1938N 06726W 6948 02455 9176 +188 +083 103028 036 028 003 03
051200 1936N 06727W 6974 02417 9169 +193 +081 075014 023 022 002 00
051230 1935N 06728W 6971 02422 9170 +196 +079 337012 017 027 002 00
051300 1933N 06729W 6967 02440 9192 +183 +087 312027 032 035 002 00
051330 1932N 06730W 6967 02457 9213 +180 +086 305044 052 046 002 00
$$
;

Bedtime for me.