ATL: IRMA - Models

[Steve]

The European ends Irma near southern Illinois and Indiana/WKY before losing it in the pattern.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 5&ypos=818

[shah83]

I think a super-sized Biscayne bay surge needs to be considered. 1926 hurricane had a bay surge, and it's really the only of the major hurricanes in the area history to do so, I think because it's the only *large* strong hurricane to hit the Miami area. Coming out of the south, should outdo the 1926 huricane, right?

[wxmann_91]

I think a super-sized Biscayne bay surge needs to be considered. 1926 hurricane had a bay surge, and it's really the only of the major hurricanes in the area history to do so, I think because it's the only *large* strong hurricane to hit the Miami area. Coming out of the south, should outdo the 1926 huricane, right?

I didn't think about that but you bring up a good point -- Biscayne Bay is oriented SSW-NNE, so a large hurricane just west of the Bay heading N could push a large surge to the head of the Bay. Certainly something to think about.

[joey]

what is the euro doin with jose and looks who behind him wow

[fci]

Well since most of these models are based of the GFS id expect some eastward shifts coming overnight. NHC might shift of the FL coast at 5am.

They said that they were purposely keeping it but further West in case the models shifted back West.
I suspect that the true track they want is a little off the coast. The HUGE question is how far?
That's vital in how much eyeball gets ashore, if any.

[fci]

The gfs model can't be trusted right now because it has been wrong all season and has done an awful job with Hurricane Irma.

Not totally sure how "awful" it has been.
It had the "up the spine" run a couple of nights ago and that is still in play.

[MatthewsRevenge]

I doubt they will shift it right. Unless NHC sees the same thing GFS is seeing. And right now it's not making that suggestion and neither is UK and Euro currently. I predict though that if the second landing at Georgia holds, NHC might shift it to Georgia rather than South Carolina but that remains to be seen. Getting closer. Looks like if it does reach western NC (or Tennessee, it looks?), it'll be at best an extratropical system since GA will be hammered by this. And Euro has it just scraping west NC.

[AtlanticWind]

Well since most of these models are based of the GFS id expect some eastward shifts coming overnight. NHC might shift of the FL coast at 5am.

They said that they were purposely keeping it but further West in case the models shifted back West.
I suspect that the true track they want is a little off the coast. The HUGE question is how far?
That's vital in how much eyeball gets ashore, if any.

They will not shift off the coast with the Euro calling for a direct hit and the UKmet right over florida
I am keep hoping for some good news but am getting very worried.

[chaser1]

yyyawn....~~~ huh? Wait? Who went ahead and stuck a Cat. 5 hurricane in "the alley" while I was busy moving? A 0Z Euro run showing a direct hit on Miami? I could've sworn that a few people posted the season was cancelled on account of hostile Atlantic conditions resulting in nothin' but a bunch of garbage storms Here I am visiting Miami thinking i'll enjoy the pretty rainbows and maybe catch a cold front or two..... "shutter the thought".

[northjaxpro]

Second landfall near Jacksonville.

Where is the image of this please?

[USTropics]

This is not looking good for Miami on the ECMWF:

[chaser1]

Trying to catch up on a couple days worth of model trends, I'm seeing that the UK is the only remaining major model taking Irma over Cuba before turning poleward. Anyone recall how consistant this UK track has been or is the UK simply flailing right and left on each of its recent runs?

[northjaxpro]

0Z EURO landfalls Irma in Miami between 0Z Saturday evening and 06Z Sunday morning, and hugs the.FL East Coast north up the coast, then moves Irma N/NW from the East Central FL coast inland to Southeast Georgia near Waycross @ hr 120. EURO weakens Irma to 977mb at that juncture just northwest of Jacksonville. Irma then moves on a NW header up into the TN Valley at @ hour 144.

By the way EURO brings major Hurricane Jose right on Miami' s doorstep at the end of the 240 hour run. A cruel double whammy to Miami?

WOW!! I pray the EURO is not correct about Jose. God forbid!! I can not phathom that to happen. That is scary to tthink about Jose potentially coming in immediately on the heels of Irma's devastating aftermath

[fci]

Not gonna stress this enough, when the models are sparring with each other, focus on NHC. I kinda stopped watching the model tracking because it's still full of errors. What makes it wild is that no one can fully predict where Irma can go from here. Right now, I think we should just focus on NHC updates for the most part.

Agree and I very much rely on NHC vs. models but when they specifically say they are keeping their track because they are afraid the models will come west again; it makes their track not truly what they think.

[caneman]

Well since most of these models are based of the GFS id expect some eastward shifts coming overnight. NHC might shift of the FL coast at 5am.

They said that they were purposely keeping it but further West in case the models shifted back West.
I suspect that the true track they want is a little off the coast. The HUGE question is how far?
That's vital in how much eyeball gets ashore, if any.

That is highly unlikely. With the Euro and UKMET having been most accurate thus far, I think a west shift is coming with landfall in Miami.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

UKMET showing a western coast hit

[TheStormExpert]

The 00z Euro is pretty much the EXACT same track as the NHC's 11pm advisory track. Looks like WPB would get the brunt in the afternoon hours Sunday if this verifies.

[BobHarlem]

Wanted to mention since people are probably focused on Irma, the 0z Euro does a loop with Jose and ends the run in the Bahamas near Florida.

[NDG]

0z Euro is if anything a slight shift to the left at least in the track across northern coastal FL.
Not good that the Euro is getting this consistent, which means a significant shift of the track by the Euro is not looking likely.
SE FL is now within 72 hrs of a possible direct impact by Irma, with a worst case trajectory for almost the whole entire FL eastern coast.

Edit: After I looked back the latest 0z Euro run actually shifted the track of Irma approximately 20 miles to the west from the previous 12z run on the track across S FL, this is 2 runs in a row that it has shifted a little to the west.

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905681577048494080




Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue 3h3 hours ago
Folks in Georgia and South Carolina will also be seriously affected by Hurricane #Irma & could still be intense w/massive wind field.

Population to see > 75 mph wind gusts estimated at nearly 16-million based on ECMWF 00z forecast model output. @CNNweather