ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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MatthewsRevenge

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6301 Postby MatthewsRevenge » Thu Sep 07, 2017 2:08 am

Yeah, it's still a pretty strong storm and it's gonna tear up the Dominican Republic and parts of Haiti next before it finally makes that NW turn to the Bahamas/Cuba/Florida.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6302 Postby wkwally » Thu Sep 07, 2017 2:08 am

Could Irma Be a Cat 5 on landfall in FL?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6303 Postby sikkar » Thu Sep 07, 2017 2:14 am

Grace bay, Turks and Caicos web cam

http://www.oceanclubresorts.com/webcam/webcam.html
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6304 Postby bob rulz » Thu Sep 07, 2017 2:29 am

Definitely some significant erosion of the southwestern portion in the last few hours, though the rest of the hurricane still looks very very healthy. I would guess the terrain of Puerto Rico affected outflow in that portion.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6305 Postby bob rulz » Thu Sep 07, 2017 2:30 am

wkwally wrote:Could Irma Be a Cat 5 on landfall in FL?


Yes, it very easily could.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6306 Postby dukeblue219 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 2:32 am

wkwally wrote:Could Irma Be a Cat 5 on landfall in FL?


Absolutely it could. Intensity forecasts are much more challenging than track.
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Re: Why is Irma's pressure so high?

#6307 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 07, 2017 2:37 am

Tekken_Guy wrote:One of the strongest hurricanes in terms of winds can't even go below the pressure attained by Ivan. What is going on?


I'm only speculating but it's entirely possible that because the background pressure is significantly above normal, that a "standard" Cat 5 pressure is simply able to produce much higher winds due to a larger gradient.
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Re: Why is Irma's pressure so high?

#6308 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Sep 07, 2017 2:58 am

:) :uarrow: :
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6309 Postby Hurrilurker » Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:01 am

This pass-by of Hispaniola will be a good test of Irma's resilience. It's not going to kill her, but I'll be surprised if it doesn't disrupt her significantly. I'll guess pressure up to 935-ish sometime tomorrow before slowly starting to rebuild. NHC forecast just steadily reduces winds through 5 days though so apparently they think she's already peaked and won't re-strengthen. I'm not so sure she'll go that easily.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6310 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:09 am

First major overall structural degradation in a couple days. ERC combined with land interaction, I would assume. Unfortunately it will take, what, a 25mph drop still to get it below Category Five intensity? And not to mention the possibility of it bombing out again over the Bahamas. Going to be glued to the situation all weekend for sure.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6311 Postby Hurrilurker » Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:10 am

Eye still closed but already looking like it's lost some symmetry after Puerto Rico. That said, still very powerful according to latest recon. I feel like NHC has been consistently underestimating the intensity forecasts with this storm.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6312 Postby aperson » Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:20 am

IR is showing deeper convection building up over the last 40 minutes with some tops in the -80C range from from http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

What sort of interplay may this have with the deteriorating eye structure? I do see what appears to me to be some mesovortices rolling through the eye so it may be trying to regain radial symmetry.

3-symmetric mesovortices?
Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6313 Postby LCfromFL » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:03 am

Anybody have the 5 am updates? I keep redressing - but nothing yet. Wonder if it is due to watches/warnings being issued?

:double:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6314 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:07 am

LCfromFL wrote:Anybody have the 5 am updates? I keep redressing - but nothing yet. Wonder if it is due to watches/warnings being issued?

:double:

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

Irma has become a little less organized during the past few hours.
Data from an Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near 0500
UTC indicated that the central pressure had risen to 921 mb and
that the winds had decreased both at the 700 mb flight-level and in
surface estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer.
Since that time, the eye has become cloud filled and the central
convection has become somewhat ragged. The initial intensity is
lowered to 155 kt, and this could be a little generous. The next
aircraft is scheduled to reach Irma around 1200 UTC.

The initial motion is 290/15. The hurricane is currently being
steered by the subtropical ridge to the north, and for the next
48 h or so this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in
the forward speed. After 48 h, a mid- to upper-level trough
digging into the eastern United States is expected to create a
break in the ridge and allow Irma to turn northward. The timing of
the turn is the most important question and one still filled with
uncertainty. The UKMET, UK Ensemble mean, and the NAVGEM are the
models showing the latest turn, and they forecast Irma to move into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula. The ECMWF and ECMWF Ensemble mean are in the
middle of the model pack and show Irma moving over the southeastern
portion of the Florida Peninsula. The GFS, Canadian, and GFS
Ensemble mean show the earliest turn and show Irma moving east of
the coast of Florida toward the southeastern United States. The
new forecast track will best follow the ECMWF, as well as the
Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and
it calls for the center to move over portions of the southeastern
Florida Peninsula between 72-96 h and then across the Atlantic into
southern South Carolina by 120 h. Users are again reminded not to
focus on the exact track since the average NHC track errors at days
3, 4, and 5 are about 120, 175, and 225 miles, respectively.

Irma should remain in warm-water, and a low shear environment for
about the next three days, and thus is expected to remain a strong
hurricane, most likely Category 5 or 4. Fluctuations in intensity
are likely during the time due to internal eyewall replacement
cycles. The large-scale models suggest that shear could increase
starting at about 72 hr. However, due to the uncertainty as to
whether this will happen, the intensity forecast keeps Irma at
category 4 strength until landfall in Florida. The 96-120 h points
now have a lower intensity due to the forecast of shear and land
interaction, but Irma is still expected to be a hurricane when it
reaches the southeastern United States.

Since Irma is moving away from Puerto Rico and the radars there, the
hourly position estimates are discontinued after this advisory.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will
bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to
the northern coast of Hispaniola today, and the Turks and Caicos and
southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and Friday.

2. Hurricane watches are in effect for the northwestern Bahamas and
much of Cuba. Irma is likely to bring dangerous wind, storm surge,
and rainfall to portions of these areas on Friday and Saturday.

3. The threat of direct hurricane impacts in Florida over the
weekend and early next week continues to increase. Hurricane
watches will likely be issued for portions of the Florida Keys and
the Florida peninsula later this morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 20.0N 68.3W 155 KT 180 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 20.7N 70.5W 150 KT 175 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 21.7N 73.1W 145 KT 165 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 22.3N 75.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 22.8N 77.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 24.5N 80.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 28.5N 80.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 33.0N 81.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6315 Postby flamingosun » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:20 am

Blinhart wrote:Has anyone heard what the cruiselines are doing with the cruises that are out right now and the ones that were suppose to be leaving this weekend since the Port of Miami is in a mandatory evacuation zone.

Yes, I keep up with those things, being a semi frequent cruiser.
A number of ships from Royal Caribbean, Carnival, and Costa have announced itinerary changes for cruises in progress. It's common for a ship to switch from an Eastern Caribbean to a Western Caribbean itinerary, or vice-versa.
They will also stay out to sea when they can't return to port, and the following cruise will be delayed until the current one returns.

Royal Caribbean has a pro met on their corporate staff. Don't know about the others, since most of our cruises have been with RCL.

Having been at sea for a number of hurricanes, including Jeanne, Omar, Rita, and Matthew, I can testify that, by and large, the cruise lines do a great job of monitoring the weather, re-routing when needed, and a splendid job of accommodating passengers.

Example: During Hurricane Jeanne, the captain sailed around the storm, though he couldn't avoid the extreme edges, then sailed south and sat off the coast of Cuba for two days. (Well outside the territorial limits) We then enjoyed an extra day at sea while making for Nassau, and made a delayed port call there. Couldn't return to Port Canaveral, as the entrance to the channel was shoaled up, so we disembarked at Ft Lauderdale.
The cruise line assisted passengers in changing airline reservations, and bused them to various airports. Those of us who parked at Port Canaveral were bused back and were among the first across the bridges when they opened. It was amazing the coordination that must have taken... just finding buses and drivers for 2500 people in an area that was just emerging from the storm itself had to be quite a feat! The captain also kept us informed throughout with regular PA announcements about the storm's location, strength, etc. He even scheduled daily meetings (with maps for visual aids) for those of us living in the affected area to keep us even better informed. My favorite captain ever!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6316 Postby USTropics » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:23 am

Recent image of Irma and Jose:

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6317 Postby flamingosun » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:58 am

TWC now reporting "at least" eight deaths attributed to Irma.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6318 Postby Michele B » Thu Sep 07, 2017 5:11 am

shawn6304 wrote:A question in regards to storm surge, if the storm makes that tight north turn would that lessen the surge as the majority of built up water would be heading NW? Or does it not matter?


Shawn, I'm no expert, but it seems to me that it's the winds from the "bottom " of the storm, the se to nw moving wind. motion is exactly what WILL drive storm surge straight into the bays and beaches of FL

It's an ON-shore flow rather than winds from the backside creating an off-shore flow, or
Winds blowing from INLAND to out to sea. Hope that makes sense!

Edit to add: not sure that made sense at all! Sorry it's early, but I did want to give you an answer.
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Cleo - 1964, Betsy - 1965, David - 1979, Andrew - 1992, Charlie (Francis, Ivan, Jeanne) - 2004, Irma - 2017, Ian - 2022

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6319 Postby chris_fit » Thu Sep 07, 2017 5:23 am

Oops- meant to post in models thread
Last edited by chris_fit on Thu Sep 07, 2017 5:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6320 Postby Cargill » Thu Sep 07, 2017 5:24 am

A number of ships from Royal Caribbean, Carnival, and Costa have announced itinerary changes for cruises in progress. It's common for a ship to switch from an Eastern Caribbean to a Western Caribbean itinerary, or vice-versa

We're booked on our first ever Caribbean cruise starting from Fort Lauderdale on Saturday 7 October, and its itinerary includes Bahamas, St Thomas, Antigua, Barbados, St Kitts, and Martinique. While I want my cruise to be successful and as planned, my problems are NOTHING compared to the residents of the Leeward Islands, and what they have been through, and will need to endure for months more.
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