ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ken711]

When is the last major hurricane to hit the Georgia coast, I can't ever recall?

[shawn6304]

NBC 6 shows 3 models

In house model - complete miss to the east

NAM - light winds with closer miss to the east

GFS - with latest 0z run,

If it was not for this site and just watching that news report I would not evacuate so I now see what other's have been saying about confusing reporting.

[flamingosun]

ON shore winds are those blowing from the sea ONTO the land. They push the water ONTO the land as they do.

Conversely, Off shore winds blow FROM (off of) the shore onto the sea

[Prof]

We have a hotel in Moutrie and I wonder if it isn't frackers enough

[Sciencerocks]

[JPmia]

Well she's coming for us here in South FL.. here is a link to find out whether or not you're in an evacuation zone:

http://www.floridadisaster.org/PublicMapping/

 https://twitter.com/jencarfagno/status/905715994395635713

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071035
AF305 1711A IRMA HDOB 10 20170907
102400 1717N 06820W 3761 08047 0433 -169 -300 208012 013 /// /// 03
102430 1719N 06818W 3759 08052 0433 -167 -282 203013 013 /// /// 03
102500 1721N 06816W 3758 08057 0433 -165 -291 200013 014 /// /// 03
102530 1723N 06814W 3758 08056 0433 -165 -300 199012 012 /// /// 03
102600 1725N 06813W 3759 08045 0430 -163 -290 192013 014 /// /// 03
102630 1727N 06811W 3759 08051 0431 -162 -283 191014 015 /// /// 03
102700 1729N 06809W 3758 08056 0432 -160 -288 193013 014 /// /// 03
102730 1731N 06807W 3760 08047 0430 -160 -284 193013 014 /// /// 03
102800 1734N 06805W 3759 08051 0433 -160 -279 183014 015 /// /// 03
102830 1736N 06804W 3784 08002 0429 -159 -282 180015 015 /// /// 03
102900 1738N 06802W 3848 07882 0420 -158 -281 198015 016 /// /// 03
102930 1740N 06800W 3942 07697 0409 -146 -261 219014 014 /// /// 03
103000 1742N 06759W 4072 07450 0392 -138 -235 229015 017 /// /// 03
103030 1745N 06758W 4241 07141 0370 -120 -212 243020 022 /// /// 03
103100 1747N 06758W 4421 06812 0346 -099 -262 241024 025 /// /// 03
103130 1750N 06757W 4600 06501 0317 -081 -212 236025 026 /// /// 03
103200 1752N 06757W 4780 06208 0303 -066 -163 229027 028 /// /// 03
103230 1755N 06756W 4980 05883 0284 -051 -104 216031 032 /// /// 03
103300 1757N 06755W 5174 05583 0262 -027 -085 214032 032 /// /// 03
103330 1759N 06755W 5366 05285 0241 -004 -051 217030 031 /// /// 03
$$

[StrongWind]

Where can I find timelines as to when winds start picking up, reach tropical storm strength, hurricane strength, etc for a given area?

[JPmia]

The news down here is beginning throw around the devastating 1926 Hurricane as comparisons. That gives most South Floridians shudders to hear that. The big concern I have is the possible angle of approach and Biscayne Bay and the intracoastal waterway surge flooding might be more than people expect. And then add in the winds. WeatherUnderground has 122mph winds forecasted for Sunday morning. I live in a new building, so it and the impact windows are rated for winds of 175mph +

[chris_fit]

Well she's coming for us here in South FL.. here is a link to find out whether or not you're in an evacuation zone:

http://www.floridadisaster.org/PublicMapping/

 https://twitter.com/jencarfagno/status/905715994395635713

What do the different zones mean? I see the legend but it doesn't list any info - awfully thought out site without this critical info being easily accessible

[ronjon]

NBC 6 shows 3 models

In house model - complete miss to the east

NAM - light winds with closer miss to the east

GFS - with latest 0z run,

If it was not for this site and just watching that news report I would not evacuate so I now see what other's have been saying about confusing reporting.

Boy that borders on malpractice or perhaps sheer incompetence. No excuse for misleading people like that!

[BobHarlem]

Where can I find timelines as to when winds start picking up, reach tropical storm strength, hurricane strength, etc for a given area?

NHC Site at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 4#contents

[cjrciadt]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lkSNWkgkH4Q&ebc=ANyPxKpKbJWymcRzJtPHFKcWk8vX3hrOMoqrPHsvcCCECAJpRGH-kxGdE5WhXCuujLPGhUVKaXIMM7bOxafJrpPwbTMf0EIYPw

[tiger_deF]

Is there an opportunity for Irma to restrengthen or will be be permanently weaker from now on?

[JPmia]

Well she's coming for us here in South FL.. here is a link to find out whether or not you're in an evacuation zone:

http://www.floridadisaster.org/PublicMapping/

 https://twitter.com/jencarfagno/status/905715994395635713

What do the different zones mean? I see the legend but it doesn't list any info - awfully thought out site without this critical info being easily accessible

Do you have a particular location you want to know about because each County has their own zones and colors.

[NDG]

I am glad to see that S FL coastal residents are evacuating this morning. Unfortunately it is taking as long as 6-8 hours to get to Orlando on the Turnpike, it is almost a parking lot fully between Yeehaw Junction and Orlando but is worth it at the end.
I-95 northbound the traffic looks better to Jax, then take I-10 west if you need to go west.
I-75 is also pretty bad between Tampa and Lake City.

[chris_fit]

Well she's coming for us here in South FL.. here is a link to find out whether or not you're in an evacuation zone:

http://www.floridadisaster.org/PublicMapping/

 https://twitter.com/jencarfagno/status/905715994395635713

What do the different zones mean? I see the legend but it doesn't list any info - awfully thought out site without this critical info being easily accessible

Do you have a particular location you want to know about because each County has their own zones and colors.

Yes - 126th Ave E, Parrish, FL, 34219, USA - I Think it's zone CD - but what does that mean?

[ObsessedMiami]

NBC 6 shows 3 models

In house model - complete miss to the east

NAM - light winds with closer miss to the east

GFS - with latest 0z run,

If it was not for this site and just watching that news report I would not evacuate so I now see what other's have been saying about confusing reporting.

How does a tv station have an "in house" model?

[flamingosun]

A number of ships from Royal Caribbean, Carnival, and Costa have announced itinerary changes for cruises in progress. It's common for a ship to switch from an Eastern Caribbean to a Western Caribbean itinerary, or vice-versa

We're booked on our first ever Caribbean cruise starting from Fort Lauderdale on Saturday 7 October, and its itinerary includes Bahamas, St Thomas, Antigua, Barbados, St Kitts, and Martinique. While I want my cruise to be successful and as planned, my problems are NOTHING compared to the residents of the Leeward Islands, and what they have been through, and will need to endure for months more.

Hopefully, there wen't be another system in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf at that time. But there COULD be. SO If you haven't already done so, go to your cruise line's website now and fill out your pre-cruise check in. (No, it's not too early) One of the items included is contact info for the cruise line to get in touch with you regarding any changes to your particular sailing. You can specify a phone number or email for that.

One other thing... I see you are from SWFL. I always advise those not living right by the port to plan to arrive at their departure city a day early during hurricane season. The reason? It has happened (on occasion, not often) that a ship will sail early to get out of harm's way or out of port by the time they must according to Coast Guard regulations. That could be an hour or two early, all the way up to a day early. If you plan on driving over the morning of your scheduled departure, you may miss the adjusted sailing time.
Book a hotel with a park and cruise package. IF you spend just one night there before the cruise, they let you park your car free in their lot for the duration of the cruise. Parking at the port's garage is exorbitant. Those hotels also provide a shuttle to the port.

Don't worry about changes to your ports of call. The captain's job is to keep thousands of souls out of harms way, and they are good at it. Just plan on not being heart broken if you end up going to alternate ports of call in order to avoid something very unpleasant or potentially life threatening.

[Tammster]

Stay or go? We were convinced to leave later today from Palm Beach County but now I’m not sure. Interesting article in the PB Post and I’m curious what people here think. Link below but here’s what I’m curious about:

“Even so, many are better off not fleeing.

Hurricane experts have a saying: Run from the rain, hide from the wind. That’s because almost all hurricane-related deaths come from drowning. As a result, evacuations are typically based on the risk of flooding, not wind speed.

Even then, evacuations should be measured in miles, say emergency officials, such as a trip from a flood-prone home to a shelter, not hundreds of miles, such as a turnpike trip to New Jersey. That creates a nightmare scenario of its own: cars on open, unprotected roads just as a windstorm bears down.

Assuming you could find enough gas to get on a road.

Technically, there’s no shortage of gas in Florida, just a run on petrol as the storm threatens.”

FYI, we have a 10 yr old secure house 30 miles inland, not prone to flooding.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/time-hunker-down-await-irma-demand-for-gas-outstrips-supply/giFNGB1TujJqIq9bTeXxKJ/