ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Looks like a stadium eye is forming.
Seeing a big blow up on the feeder band south of DR and bending thru the Mona Passage.

[BlueWater36]

My wife, family, and a few friends will be hunkering down in our home in Port Saint Lucie.

We live in a frame house 11 miles from the coast. Solid roof with straps. Stucco walls and soffits (stucco goes under the roof line.) No trees or telephone poles within falling distance. Hurricane shutters up. Gable ends boarded up. Impact back door, hurricane rated garage door, shutters for the front door. We're as best prepared as we can be. Hoping she weakens a bit by the time she gets up here. Wish us luck.

That's all good but do you have at least 10 days of supplies? Filling bathtubs with water, etc? A lot of folks were gob smacked when Wilma moved through and no one could get supplies into some areas. Good luck.

We have enough food and water for 5 people, 2 dogs, and 2 cats for 30 days. Generator, gas, propane, battery bank, all that good stuff. Just hoping the house doesn't get blown away.

[SouthDadeFish]

There is a clear secondary flight-level wind maximum in the NE quadrant. Combining that with recent microwave imagery, I think Irma is actually going to have a real ERC. You can even see some faint hints of this on GOES-16 visible imagery. It's really hard to say how long this process will take. It's possible Irma finally drops down to category 4 (still a very dangerous and powerful hurricane) during this time. Following the ERC, I would not rule out re-intensification back to a category-5 at some point, but trying to accurately predict inner-core changes is nearly futile.

[Michele B]

The 11 pm forecast had Irma at 20.3 N 68.8 W by 8 am.
8 am advisory has Irma at 20.1 N 69.0 W.

That doesn't sound like 17 mph

[Patricia]

Well the family we have in Melbourne is heading to Tampa and not using the plane tix out of Jacksonville today so I guess there will be a few more seats available soon for someone else.

[Michele B]

How much of a chance is a Myrtle Beach landfall? I am not able to get too much information on the area. Are we in the clear now?

You are on the best site there is for accurate information. There are all kinds of maps on here which will show you your area. Just ask someone to link one for you. I would do it, but I don't know how.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 071251
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 07/12:28:10Z
B. 20 deg 09 min N
069 deg 04 min W
C. 700 mb 2402 m
D. 140 kt
E. 261 deg 10 nm
F. 358 deg 130 kt
G. 260 deg 11 nm
H. 921 mb
I. 12 C / 3047 m
J. 17 C / 3053 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C24
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1711A IRMA OB 11
MAX FL WIND 152 KT 035 / 3 NM 11:18:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 150 KT 055 / 17 NM 12:33:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C 265 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[SEASON_CANCELED]

The 11 pm forecast had Irma at 20.3 N 68.8 W by 8 am.
8 am advisory has Irma at 20.1 N 69.0 W.

That doesn't sound like 17 mph

that would be good right?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Well the family we have in Melbourne is heading to Tampa and not using the plane tix out of Jacksonville today so I guess there will be a few more seats available soon for someone else.

Dont come here people are going NUTS and heading north. There isn't any gas in town anywhere. People seem to be overprepparing around here i am trying to asses what effects we will have

[Hurricaneman]

The 11 pm forecast had Irma at 20.3 N 68.8 W by 8 am.
8 am advisory has Irma at 20.1 N 69.0 W.

That doesn't sound like 17 mph

that would be good right?

No because it would get farther west

[MJGarrison]

There is a clear secondary flight-level wind maximum in the NE quadrant. Combining that with recent microwave imagery, I think Irma is actually going to have a real ERC. You can even see some faint hints of this on GOES-16 visible imagery. It's really hard to say how long this process will take. It's possible Irma finally drops down to category 4 (still a very dangerous and powerful hurricane) during this time. Following the ERC, I would not rule out re-intensification back to a category-5 at some point, but trying to accurately predict inner-core changes is nearly futile.

I've been monitoring the boards and it seems as though there have been several "False" EWRC. Is that true or did the cycles complete with just no decrease in strength? Is this common?

[norva]

That doesn't sound like 17 mph

that would be good right?

No because it would get farther west

Sadly I think there is a good chance it shifts West. Ready here in Orlando for anything

[SouthDadeFish]

There is a clear secondary flight-level wind maximum in the NE quadrant. Combining that with recent microwave imagery, I think Irma is actually going to have a real ERC. You can even see some faint hints of this on GOES-16 visible imagery. It's really hard to say how long this process will take. It's possible Irma finally drops down to category 4 (still a very dangerous and powerful hurricane) during this time. Following the ERC, I would not rule out re-intensification back to a category-5 at some point, but trying to accurately predict inner-core changes is nearly futile.

I've been monitoring the boards and it seems as though there have been several "False" EWRC. Is that true or did the cycles complete with just no decrease in strength? Is this common?

It's hard to say because we still lack a technical definition for an EWRC. At the very least, the last two presumed attempts at an EWRC did not end in the classic fashion, with a much larger eyewall becoming dominant. I am skeptical if that can happen again this time, but we've been proved wrong before.

[tolakram]

[ronyan]

48 hours as a cat 5...incredible. Maybe there will be some disruption with the EWRC and proximity to Dominica.

[HurricaneFrances04]

The 11 pm forecast had Irma at 20.3 N 68.8 W by 8 am.
8 am advisory has Irma at 20.1 N 69.0 W.

That doesn't sound like 17 mph

that would be good right?

Apologies if I wasn't clear with my post. I was trying to do a short term verification on the NHC track. In reality, she tracked on the southwestern side of the cone from the 11 pm advisory. These short term wobbles become more important as she approaches land.

[Michele B]

My wife, family, and a few friends will be hunkering down in our home in Port Saint Lucie.

We live in a frame house 11 miles from the coast. Solid roof with straps. Stucco walls and soffits (stucco goes under the roof line.) No trees or telephone poles within falling distance. Hurricane shutters up. Gable ends boarded up. Impact back door, hurricane rated garage door, shutters for the front door. We're as best prepared as we can be. Hoping she weakens a bit by the time she gets up here. Wish us luck.

I wish this site had "Private Messaging," but it doesn't seem like it does. Hope this doesn't break any rules....This is a personal question. How old is the house? Do you know who built it?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Seems to be on track with a hair wobble maybe further south. Waiting with Anxiety for the next Euro run

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Seems to be on track with a hair wobble maybe further south. Waiting with Anxiety for the next Euro run

Perfectly on track; the eye is being bounced around by the outer, developing outer eyewall.

[BlueWater36]

My wife, family, and a few friends will be hunkering down in our home in Port Saint Lucie.

We live in a frame house 11 miles from the coast. Solid roof with straps. Stucco walls and soffits (stucco goes under the roof line.) No trees or telephone poles within falling distance. Hurricane shutters up. Gable ends boarded up. Impact back door, hurricane rated garage door, shutters for the front door. We're as best prepared as we can be. Hoping she weakens a bit by the time she gets up here. Wish us luck.

I wish this site had "Private Messaging," but it doesn't seem like it does. Hope this doesn't break any rules....This is a personal question. How old is the house? Do you know who built it?

Built in 85. I do not know who built it. Roof was last replaced 8 or 9 years ago and retrofitted with straps.