ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

The 11 pm forecast had Irma at 20.3 N 68.8 W by 8 am.
8 am advisory has Irma at 20.1 N 69.0 W.

That doesn't sound like 17 mph

that would be good right?

I would think so, but that wasn't really my point.

Basically, my point was that any change in forward speed WILL most definitely affect what other interactions there are with upper-level air systems.

Or maybe it was my point, and I was hoping a promet would have an answer!

lol

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/airlivenet/status/905755941559300097

[jasons2k]

I wish this site had "Private Messaging," but it doesn't seem like it does.

Storm2k absolutely does have private messaging. I just sent you one.

[tolakram]

[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/8ubYyPP.png[/img]

Seems to be on track with a hair wobble maybe further south. Waiting with Anxiety for the next Euro run

You posted a question in the models thread that I think was intended for here. You're in Tampa, right? I am not qualified to give advice other than if it where me I'd take a mini vacation and if nothing bad happens the drive back should be no problem. It seems like Irma will go east, but you are still in the error cone and Matthew tracked well west of the 4 day forecast (but still inside the cone). Follow the snake yourself, look at the forecast drift west, decide if you're still comfortable.

Matthew graphical archive: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/graphics/al14/loop_3NLW.shtml

[Janie2006]

I'm going to chime in here because this really cannot be repeated enough with a Category 5 hurricane staring you down.

I know we have tons of lurkers at times like these, and, being human, some folks are looking for the silver lining or are reading into the tea leaves. It's natural to not want to up-end your daily lives. However, Mark is absolutely spot-on here. Take it from us. Do not wait. There were people who decided to weather Katrina because "the house withstood Camille". And they died. Nobody could reach them. And the only thing to do was to listen at a dispatch office, horrified as the surge came in. Trust. That isn't being alarmist, it's being realistic. You cannot fool around with storms like this.

Complete all preparations and get ready to evacuate (if you plan to do so or already haven't left) now. Heed all local warnings issued by authorities. Irma is a very dangerous storm that could very easily bring catastrophic conditions wherever she goes. You folks in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina still have time. Use it wisely.

[BZSTORM]

This is what it was like in St Thomas USVI.

That might be the most incredible hurricane footage I have ever watched.

Though I doubt he'd be so confident in the structure of that building if he were in an EF4/EF5 tornado.

do we know what wind speeds they got at St Thomas?

[Michele B]

That doesn't sound like 17 mph

that would be good right?

No because it would get farther west

No, I was thinking it would miss the "rendezvous point" - by virtue of moving too slow?

[MattC]

Joe Bastardi has Irma strengthening in final Fla land approach, and sees lowest pressure yet. He is forecasting a Cat 5 landfall.

https://www.weatherbell.com/#premium Daily Update is free.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/NASA_SPoRT/status/905773073676238850

[sponger]

This is what it was like in St Thomas USVI.

That might be the most incredible hurricane footage I have ever watched.

Though I doubt he'd be so confident in the structure of that building if he were in an EF4/EF5 tornado.

do we know what wind speeds they got at St Thomas?

The gust just after the 4.00 minute mark is incredible. The Ritz Carlton is a very nice way to ride out a Cat 5!

[Evil Jeremy]

No model swings overnight, no track changes this morning. Per the wording in the 5am discussion, Hurricane Watches for SFL will probably go up at 11am. Very stressful day ahead.

[Michele B]

My wife, family, and a few friends will be hunkering down in our home in Port Saint Lucie.

We live in a frame house 11 miles from the coast. Solid roof with straps. Stucco walls and soffits (stucco goes under the roof line.) No trees or telephone poles within falling distance. Hurricane shutters up. Gable ends boarded up. Impact back door, hurricane rated garage door, shutters for the front door. We're as best prepared as we can be. Hoping she weakens a bit by the time she gets up here. Wish us luck.

I wish this site had "Private Messaging," but it doesn't seem like it does. Hope this doesn't break any rules....This is a personal question. How old is the house? Do you know who built it?

Built in 85. I do not know who built it. Roof was last replaced 8 or 9 years ago and retrofitted with straps.

Thanks! Sounds like a pretty safe place....especially with that extra roof work....

Just re-read your post. Something that was done to our gable roof ends, that I think helps strengthen our roof: Someone (not us!) nailed 2x4's at a 45 degree angle up in the attic - kinda like braces - from the joist up to the peak of the roof.

Sorry, I'm just a girl! I'm not sure I'm explaining it clearly enough, but anyway, knowing those braces are there makes me feel better about my gable roof (as growing up in FL, I KNOW gable roofs are not the safest ones you can have), but this can reinforce them somewhat.

[PandaCitrus]

I'm cautiously optimistic after reviewing lots of the damage photos across the Carribbean where Irma' s eyeball hit. There was lots of devastation but strong building codes worked. I didn't see unrecognizable piles of wood where 5 story buildings used to be like in Katrina surge areas or scenes like in Hurricane Andrew. Some of the hotels on the water looked like the structures had nothing but cosmetic damage. That's amazing in what had to be 200mph wind gusts. I'm hopeful even in the worst case scenario if the euro model validates that the strong building codes since Andrew will work and the damage will look like this in the well built structures.

The biggest concerns I have is the garbage that was built in the 70's and 80's. There are lots of Country Walks out there with critical design failures in South Florida that will fail in 120mph winds. There are also lots of poorly maintained old housing and apartment stock with deferred maintenance issues. I think this storm will be a stress test among how well built your home is. If you are in a home built before Andrew, think long and hard about if it can withstand 150mph wind gusts.

[Laser30033003]

How many miles wide are the TS winds I know Hurricane winds are out 50 miles from the center.....but not TS???

[SEASON_CANCELED]

[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/8ubYyPP.png[/img]

Seems to be on track with a hair wobble maybe further south. Waiting with Anxiety for the next Euro run

You posted a question in the models thread that I think was intended for here. You're in Tampa, right? I am not qualified to give advice other than if it where me I'd take a mini vacation and if nothing bad happens the drive back should be no problem. It seems like Irma will go east, but you are still in the error cone and Matthew tracked well west of the 4 day forecast (but still inside the cone). Follow the snake yourself, look at the forecast drift west, decide if you're still comfortable.

Matthew graphical archive: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/graphics/al14/loop_3NLW.shtml

Yeah thanks. I think ill head up to Gainesville tomorrow if I can get gas (City is completely OUT OF GAS RIGHT NOW)

People around here are not boarding up yet but they are leaving town. Its 50/50. Half are panicking half are doing nothing out of the ordinary.

My Fiance bought $500 worth of Canned food and water. My father in law drove up yesterday and bought 3 generators from Alabama.I asked why 3? Why waste your precious gas..he said he would sell the other 2..I think there is alot of selfish over prepping going on right now i am seeing it first hand. People are selling used plywood for $80 a sheet on letGO and $5 for bottle of water on craiglist.



I will be simply boarding up friday and gonna take your advice and go up north.

[nascarfan999]

I'm going to chime in here because this really cannot be repeated enough with a Category 5 hurricane staring you down.

I know we have tons of lurkers at times like these, and, being human, some folks are looking for the silver lining or are reading into the tea leaves. It's natural to not want to up-end your daily lives. However, Mark is absolutely spot-on here. Take it from us. Do not wait. There were people who decided to weather Katrina because "the house withstood Camille". And they died. Nobody could reach them. And the only thing to do was to listen at a dispatch office, horrified as the surge came in. Trust. That isn't being alarmist, it's being realistic. You cannot fool around with storms like this.

Complete all preparations and get ready to evacuate (if you plan to do so or already haven't left) now. Heed all local warnings issued by authorities. Irma is a very dangerous storm that could very easily bring catastrophic conditions wherever she goes. You folks in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina still have time. Use it wisely.

Here's one way to put it. I've seen several people on here in the past few days say they regretted deciding to stay and not evacuate for Harvey or other past storm. I have not heard one person say that they evacuated and wish that they hadn't.

[jasons2k]

No model swings overnight, no track changes this morning. Per the wording in the 5am discussion, Hurricane Watches for SFL will probably go up at 11am. Very stressful day ahead.

Not expecting any major changes at this point. SE FL needs to prepare for a worst case, and leave unless you are emergency personnel and required to stay.

[Patricia]

Well the family we have in Melbourne is heading to Tampa and not using the plane tix out of Jacksonville today so I guess there will be a few more seats available soon for someone else.

Dont come here people are going NUTS and heading north. There isn't any gas in town anywhere. People seem to be overprepparing around here i am trying to asses what effects we will have

Thanks. We tried to tell them to just come to us (out of state) via jax flights. They won't. I wish there was more we could do. They have children.

[stormsurf]

Does anyone have real time reports of traffic and gas situation from north Florida up into GA? Any info will be greatly appreciated.

[eastcoastFL]

How many miles wide are the TS winds I know Hurricane winds are out 50 miles from the center.....but not TS???

Ts winds go out 175 miles now. Expected to get higher