USTropics wrote:06z GFS ensembles have shifted west and are starting to come into better agreement:
GFS and Euro Ensembles clustering up is not good news for anyone..
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USTropics wrote:06z GFS ensembles have shifted west and are starting to come into better agreement:
Hurricane Andrew wrote:That model bias map is fascination...EVERY single model has been too far east...hmm...
chaser1 wrote:Hurricane Andrew wrote:That model bias map is fascination...EVERY single model has been too far east...hmm...
Model bias map? Could you repost?
ronjon wrote:Interesting that the most southern individual ensemble runs of the 06z GFS are the furthest west into Florida - this will be something to watch the next few days based on the actual track of Irma and might hint at the eventual landfall point in Florida.
USTropics wrote:Model positional bias:
[img]https://i.imgur.com/ycZf6mR.png
You can find these type of charts here -
RL3AO wrote:USTropics wrote:Model positional bias:
[img]https://i.imgur.com/ycZf6mR.png
You can find these type of charts here -
And the biased corrected models and ensembles that the NHC has is probably the main reason they've been to the left of many models. NHC looks at a lot more stuff than a TV met has time to look at. Really should listen to the NHC at this point.
USTropics wrote:chaser1 wrote:Hurricane Andrew wrote:That model bias map is fascination...EVERY single model has been too far east...hmm...
Model bias map? Could you repost?
Positional error by forecast hour:
Model positional bias:
You can find these type of charts here - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/
AutoPenalti wrote:Did the GEFS ensembles shift west again? Sorry guys I just woke up, we are doing final preps for evacuation.
We leave tonight.
SEASON_CANCELED wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:Did the GEFS ensembles shift west again? Sorry guys I just woke up, we are doing final preps for evacuation.
We leave tonight.
storm is still days away. That cone could slide to bermuda or Brownsville. Ive seen it happen...the cone is self correcting..so it looks like its never wrong. Its really only 99% accurate 24 hours out...and even then you get situations like Charlie where it turns direction at the last minute
AutoPenalti wrote:FWIW, Eric Webb is mentioning about how GFS is showing the east outlier because of a slow down in the trough.
AutoPenalti wrote:FWIW, Eric Webb is mentioning about how GFS is showing the east outlier because of a slow down in the trough.
Ken711 wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:FWIW, Eric Webb is mentioning about how GFS is showing the east outlier because of a slow down in the trough.
Does that mean it will continue to trend east in successive runs?
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