ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

i enjoying my home wont be by sunday afternoon i live miami and mobile home we lucky other hurr were weaker this king hurr hit miami since Andrew

What are your plans to deal with the threat? Is there a close by shelter, or are you going to stay with friends and relatives?

[chris_fit]

I say this every time but man, I just find Avila's discussions lacking. I can tell it's his just by reading a few lines. Throw us a bone with what you are thinking, what the models are saying, etc...

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071503
AF305 1711A IRMA HDOB 37 20170907
145400 1931N 06810W 6965 03164 0052 +097 +074 188048 049 050 001 00
145430 1933N 06810W 6967 03162 0051 +099 +075 188050 051 050 001 00
145500 1936N 06811W 6967 03157 0049 +098 +074 187051 051 048 001 00
145530 1938N 06811W 6968 03157 0049 +095 +076 186050 050 046 002 00
145600 1940N 06811W 6968 03155 0050 +095 +079 183051 051 046 001 00
145630 1942N 06812W 6966 03155 0048 +095 +077 183053 054 046 001 00
145700 1944N 06812W 6969 03148 0049 +092 +085 182054 054 046 001 00
145730 1947N 06812W 6968 03149 0050 +090 +088 181055 056 046 001 00
145800 1949N 06813W 6968 03148 0043 +093 +087 182056 057 048 001 01
145830 1951N 06813W 6966 03147 0040 +094 +089 182058 059 046 002 00
145900 1953N 06813W 6967 03146 //// +090 //// 183059 060 047 002 01
145930 1955N 06814W 6969 03139 //// +089 //// 182060 061 047 002 01
150000 1958N 06814W 6966 03144 //// +086 //// 181062 062 047 003 01
150030 2000N 06814W 6967 03140 //// +090 //// 179061 062 048 003 01
150100 2002N 06815W 6968 03141 0057 +089 //// 177063 064 047 003 01
150130 2005N 06815W 6969 03137 0060 +095 +095 176063 064 047 006 00
150200 2007N 06815W 6969 03135 0057 +092 //// 176065 066 047 006 01
150230 2009N 06816W 6967 03139 0055 +093 //// 174067 068 048 006 01
150300 2012N 06816W 6967 03137 0055 +095 +095 174066 067 047 006 00
150330 2014N 06816W 6966 03138 0054 +096 +096 174067 067 050 007 00
$$
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[p1nheadlarry]

Just a quick question really. I have friends that have evacuated from Key West 3 cars, kids, pets, chickens (I know) It's the right call but they've basically been driving north without much of a plan where to head towards. So far they've made it as far as Ocala and are now wondering how far is far enough? Where would you head to in this situation?

Tallahassee, Pensacola

Anywhere west. We keep talking about Atlanta, anywhere in SC, NC, but apparently THEY are going to get some of this thing, too. If it were my decision, I'd go out I-10

From what I have heard all of Georgia is sold out of hotel rooms.

There's always air bnb

[GCANE]

[dukeblue219]

Per wesh 2 there's a lot of models that are closer to the Bahamas than Florida. Could be 200 miles of the coast of Florida.

Yes, it could, or it could hit FL head on. There's only so many models that really matter, and those are taken into consideration and weighted the most (obviously) by the NHC in making their official forecast. The local TV stations like to show those "spaghetti" plots that give the appearance of dozens of equally-valid models when that's not quite accurate.

Follow what the NHC is saying. They know more about the hurricane's likely path than most any local TV station. What the local guys can do is tell you what you need to do in your area. They know what the effects will be and how you should prepare.

[meriland29]

She on a slew weakening trend from now on out?

[dukeblue219]

[HurricaneBelle]

I say this every time but man, I just find Avila's discussions lacking. I can tell it's his just by reading a few lines. Throw us a bone with what you are thinking, what the models are saying, etc...

I agree that Avila isn't much fun to read, but frankly there isn't that much new for him to say right now. The reliable models haven't changed much in their last few runs, so there was no appreciable track shift.

[tolakram]

Looking for a little education here. When I look at this water vapor loop it looks like that front is really digging. When is it supposed to lift out and how do they know when it will lift out? Wouldn't Irma tend to follow the flow along this front and ride up along the east coast?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/h5-loop-wv.html

Look at this better loop and speed it up. Already starting to lift out NE so no surprises.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-85&info=wv&zoom=4&width=1400&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=wv2.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

[Steve]

She on a slew weakening trend from now on out?

Doubtful. Look for intensification just south or southeast of the tip of Florida (assuming limited interaction with Cuba) maybe 12-18 hours prior to landfall. I don't know how low it can get, but < 910 looks possible. It will probably come up a few mb before landfall though.

[Evil Jeremy]

It's days like today when I like to listen to the 2005-2008 TWC Storm Alert theme on loop.

[CryHavoc]

Can we talk for a moment about intensity forecasts?

To anyone who's hanging onto the idea that Irma may weaken significantly before landfall -- please don't.

We are getting much better with storm path and have been over the years, but our intensity forecasts are still pretty much a crapshoot. Most models and official forecasts have had Irma weakening well before now, and aside from the GFS going ballistic with that 880 forecast, most of our intensity models are pretty conservative. In what, 12 hours she's supposed to be down to 145mph and I think even the most optimistic (or pessimistic) forecaster would say that a drop of 35mph is unlikely at this point.

Even if Irma weakens to "merely" (massive dose of sarcasm there) a high-end cat 4 at landfall, it is still a life threatening situation if you are in the path of the storm. You don't need to be in the eyewall to get caught in a tornado or sudden wind gust. And there's still a good chance that she comes ashore as a cat 5. Remember, a "low-end" cat 4 just devastated Texas and caught a bunch of people off-guard.

Please don't hang hopes on winds abating significantly. It's incredibly improbable that Irma will weaken to the point where it will not be a life threatening situation if you are caught in a less than idea place.

This is a life-threatening situation under the best of circumstances if Irma makes landfall in Florida.

[SFLcane]

Folks quick question any reason why Vero beach isn't in the hurricane watch? Iam asumming tommorow hurricane warnings go up for southern part of the state then vero should be in a watch. Reason Iam asking is because my grandma lives up there. Thx

[meriland29]

Well yes, I mean, I see she is down to 180 as opposed to 185 which is only a small amount, but is this likely a trend or is this likely a result of being so close to land atm.

[Kingslayer1254]

Looking for a little education here. When I look at this water vapor loop it looks like that front is really digging. When is it supposed to lift out and how do they know when it will lift out? Wouldn't Irma tend to follow the flow along this front and ride up along the east coast?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/h5-loop-wv.html

Look at this better loop and speed it up. Already starting to lift out NE so no surprises.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-85&info=wv&zoom=4&width=1400&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=wv2.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

Thanks for the graphic... I too fan see a slight uptick NE... And mean slight uptick NE

[Aric Dunn]

Folks quick question any reason why Vero beach isn't in the hurricane watch? Iam asumming tommorow hurricane warnings go up for southern part of the state then vero should be in a watch. Reason Iam asking is because my grandma lives up there. Thx

only has to do with timing. they will go up tomorrow maybe later today.

[KBBOCA]

My brother is in Charlotte, NC these days but formerly lived in WPB for 25 years (until 2009). He says he's been very surprised at awareness and preps by folks in the CLT area. Lots of stores sold out of water, etc. He attributes it to Matthew last year bringing (surprise) devastation to lots in NC (mostly the eastern half of the state); Harvey being so fresh in everyone's minds; and also local memories of Hugo and what it did to CLT 25 years ago (80,000 trees lost, massive power outages!). I mean Charlotte is not an area typically in the NHC cone... but it's very close to it right now, and folks seem to be paying attention. Glad to hear it.

Even if the current track proves to be off and some folks "over-prepare" I don't think we'll hear as much whining and complaining of the NHC or media having "cried wolf" with this storm given all the recent pix and news from Harvey & Texas and also the utter devastation in the Islands that Irma has already caused. I think "better safe than sorry" is a much more prevalent attitude than I can remember hearing / seeing with other storms in the past 10 years or so.

[CryHavoc]

Well yes, I mean, I see she is down to 180 as opposed to 185 which is only a small amount, but is this likely a trend or is this likely a result of being so close to land atm.

Heh, I just made a post about intensity.

Right now all signs point to her holding steady at least in the near-term. Nothing in her structure suggests a weakening storm. Long term, we just don't know -- we're pretty bad with intensity especially in cat 5 storms.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071513
AF305 1711A IRMA HDOB 38 20170907
150400 2016N 06817W 6964 03137 0055 +095 //// 174068 069 050 007 01
150430 2019N 06817W 6965 03140 0039 +088 //// 169067 069 051 004 01
150500 2021N 06817W 6967 03133 //// +091 //// 164071 072 052 003 01
150530 2023N 06818W 6969 03134 //// +091 //// 161068 069 052 004 01
150600 2026N 06818W 6966 03133 0031 +096 //// 160071 073 053 004 01
150630 2028N 06818W 6967 03134 0044 +100 +100 163074 076 051 007 03
150700 2030N 06819W 6971 03127 0050 +100 //// 160072 074 056 010 01
150730 2033N 06819W 6964 03140 0029 +094 //// 157074 075 053 005 01
150800 2035N 06819W 6971 03130 0027 +095 //// 155075 076 053 005 01
150830 2037N 06820W 6966 03140 0026 +095 +090 153074 076 054 004 01
150900 2040N 06820W 6969 03135 0030 +093 +083 151075 076 053 005 00
150930 2042N 06820W 6967 03139 0034 +090 +087 149076 077 055 003 01
151000 2045N 06821W 6967 03135 0031 +090 +090 146075 075 054 003 01
151030 2047N 06821W 6967 03137 //// +086 //// 147077 077 053 003 01
151100 2049N 06821W 6966 03138 //// +090 //// 146076 076 055 002 01
151130 2051N 06822W 6969 03137 //// +090 //// 146077 078 054 003 01
151200 2054N 06822W 6966 03138 //// +090 //// 146078 079 054 002 01
151230 2056N 06822W 6970 03134 //// +090 //// 146079 079 053 003 01
151300 2058N 06823W 6967 03140 0036 +093 +090 146078 079 053 003 00
151330 2101N 06823W 6966 03143 0058 +090 +090 146079 080 051 006 00
$$
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