ATL: IRMA - Models

[Langinbang187]

Euro run seems to be about the worst case scenario, no? That just plain looks horrifying.

[bella_may]

12Z NAVGEM has landfall in the big bend area of FL.

[LarryWx]

Significant westward shift Euro as of hour 72 consistent with every other 12Z model.

[HurricaneFrances04]

12Z Euro 72 hour point is 70 miles SW of the 11 am NHC 72 hours forecast. Still within the cone.

[boxwes]

Euro run seems to be about the worst case scenario, no? That just plain looks horrifying.

Into Key Largo from the SSE is probably worst possible case, but this is pretty ugly for sure.

[Big O]

Euro 72 hour WxBell map shows landfall on SW tip of Florida at 926 mb. Indicates strengthening on its trek between Cuba and Florida.

[miamijaaz]

12Z Euro 72 hour point is 70 miles SW of the 11 am NHC 72 hours forecast. Still within the cone.

I was actually surprised to see the NHC move their forecast a bit east at 11:00 am. Not questioning them, just wondering what the rationale for that was, when the trend appeared to be west.

[Steve]

That's all I need to see...I'm out of here...

Safe travels Sanibel.

I'm not sure anyone else is willing to say it. While the specific track and resulting details of hours beyond 70 are not yet set in stone, there looks to be close to an 85-90% chance of landfall of a Cat 4 or Cat 5 in South Florida inside of 3 days. We haven't had a situation like this since 2005. With Harvey, some of the models forecasted it would get really strong, but it happened fast and close to the cost. We didn't have the broad spectrum agreement or the existing structure to know. Matthew was a scare, but that's mostly what it was. Irma looks to be what some people refer to as the real deal and potentially one of the Top 5 U.S. hurricanes of all time. There's not every year when you'll have 2 storms fall in that category.

[chris_fit]

Up the Spine! Ugh - Def gonna board up here in Parrish (just S of Tampa)

[gtalum]

OMG what happened ta 96 hours?

[Steve]

96 hours up near Gainesville, FL. It doesn't look like this run of the European will go offshore. The two hits will be the keys and mainland of Florida.

[miamijaaz]

It seemed to move straight north from there, passing over Orlando it seems. Hope people on the west coast, including Tampa, haven't stopped paying attention...

[gatorcane]

[otowntiger]

12Z Euro 72 hour point is 70 miles SW of the 11 am NHC 72 hours forecast. Still within the cone.

I was actually surprised to see the NHC move their forecast a bit east at 11:00 am. Not questioning them, just wondering what the rationale for that was, when the trend appeared to be west.

This is one reason why I don't think they budge their track. GFS would need to shift, and by 'shift' I mean more than a slight nudge to the west, but who knows? At this point the way things go, it could nudge more east. Unless unusualy wide swings occur in multiple models I don't see them changing their forecast. Just my 2 cents.

[gtalum]

It seemed to move straight north from there, passing over Orlando it seems. Hope people on the west coast, including Tampa, haven't stopped paying attention...

Bradenton here. I wasn't planning to leave, but now I might. Will make a decision and leave at midnight if I have to.

[NDG]

Now I hope that Morgan & Morgan sues all those TV Stations that were making it sound like the models were going to keep trending east making people think that FL was in the all clear

[WxGuy1]

Where is the GFS on these charts?

It's called AVNO on those charts. Not sure why, something historical no doubt.

Here's some abbreviations.

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/models.html

Before the GFS, the global mid/long-range (5-10 day) NCEP model was called the Aviation or AVN. Actually, the longer-range forecasts were from the MRF, with the shorter-range global forecast from the AVN (see https://www.ready.noaa.gov/faq_md15.php). The Eta model provided a higher-resolution but shorter-term forecast over North America (the Eta was replaced by the WRF-NMM in the NAM slot). I don't know why the folks who make these graphics stick with the AVN name when it should be GFS. *shrug*

Again, don't expect huge changes from the NHC on account of individual model runs. Folks were stating that the NHC was foolish not to make huge changes eastward just a day ago when the models shifted the forecast track eastward off the coast of Florida. The NHC is good at what they do -- they essentially make some weighted average track using input from all numerical models and including previous model runs (an experienced NHC forecaster is there to figure out how all of the model forecasts should be 'weighted', for all intents and purposes).

Yes, shifts even so little as ~20 miles may have MASSIVE impacts in terms of damage potential, but there's 0% chance such tiny changes can be anticipated several days out. Heck, even minor wobbles one way or another are hard to anticipate, so it's not worth the time to get too carried away with exact landfall locations days in advance considering that we know any given model solution will not verify 100%.

[La Sirena]

96 hours up near Gainesville, FL. It doesn't look like this run of the European will go offshore. The two hits will be the keys and mainland of Florida.

Do you think this now lends more credence to the UKMET runs today? They seem pretty close...not exact...but close.

[Steve]

Also if the EC verifies, there are liable to be tornadoes in the mix, possibly many. Central Florida (and particularly Ocala) has a lot of retirement communities as it's one of the cheapest places in Florida to live that I know of. There are also a lot of mobile home communities in random places around some of the lakes between Lakeland and Ocala. Look for tens of thousands of homes to be damaged or destroyed. Also, Orlando would be on the East side of the eyewall of what would still possibly be Cat 3 that far north. Do what you have to do up there.

[eastcoastFL]

What is the intensity like when it reaches Orlando? I evacuated Palm Beach to Davenport and now it looks like the eye will come over us here. Smh...