ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

I have been looking at the posts about models shifting west and so forth. If Irma continues to move north of track, I think it would be highly unlikely that the NHC shifts its forecast cone westward.

[sponger]

That Euro run was worse for us here, better for SE FL. Overall, better since the eye avoids the most populous part of the state. Unfortunately It leaves us dirty all the way. Ugh.

[KBBOCA]

Goodness. It's hard to find any good scenarios now, except out to sea which to my knowledge is not forecast by any reputable model...

But the slight westward shift of the 12Z Euro is very troubling indeed. Beyond the catastrophic impact this track would have on South Florida, my heart breaks to see this thinking of all the Floridians who are fleeing to Georgia right now. Reminds me too much of how Charley seriously impacted and seemed to "chase" all those who had evacuated to Orlando trying to get to safety.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905859917776654336




 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905860340562448384

[sponger]

[quote="KBBOCA"]Goodness. It's hard to find any good scenarios now, except out to sea which to my knowledge is not forecast by any reputable model...

But the slight westward shift of the 12Z Euro is very troubling indeed. Beyond the catastrophic impact this track would have on South Florida, my heart breaks to see this thinking of all the Floridians who are fleeing to Georgia right now. Reminds me too much of how Charley seriously impacted and seemed to "chase" all those who had evacuated to Orlando trying to get to safety.

Not sure how central GA gets 90 mph but 60 here in Saint Augustine. I will take it!

[KBBOCA]

That Euro run was worse for us here, better for SE FL. Overall, better since the eye avoids the most populous part of the state. Unfortunately It leaves us dirty all the way. Ugh.

I'm not sure you can say it's better for SE FL. Puts Miami and SE FL in the strongest eyewall due to the size of the storm. Look at the wind forecasts here:

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905861946167238656

[Sanibel]

The latest Euro run is more west coast than spine and represents a significant shift west...This track will expose Sanibel to a significant surge from the north or bay side that will probably make little difference as to which side it comes from...This track is close enough to the hurricane core to hit Sanibel with hurricane winds of significant intensity...Any further west shift will place Sanibel in a direct hit and have impacts of seriously higher magnitude...


I saw the Sanibel Chevron near the causeway get a full tanker truck delivery of gas last night and my relative just fueled there a few hours ago...I might get an extra 2.5 gallon container for a little edge...

[Dave C]

Cat island about to feel the north eyewall, last vortex message had eye open in se. but still mighty impressive on sat. loops!

[tolakram]

SLIDER

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=453.5&y=813.5&z=2&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[tolakram]

Another visible loop

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_01&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80

[sponger]

That Euro run was worse for us here, better for SE FL. Overall, better since the eye avoids the most populous part of the state. Unfortunately It leaves us dirty all the way. Ugh.

[quote]I'm not sure you can say it's better for SE FL. Puts Miami and SE FL in the strongest eyewall due to the size of the storm. Look at the wind forecasts here:


Yep still pretty ugly. Cat 3 conditions for Dade but relatively better than that eye wall hitting Miami. Still a bad hit for sure.

[Sanibel]

We'll see how NHC adjusts track at 5pm...If the Euro verifies all evacuation routes will be in to the hurricane (for me)...

[KBBOCA]

Another Andrew / Irma size comparison:

 https://twitter.com/JoelNihlean/status/905845846687789058

[Agua]

My heart goes out to you folks in S FL. I hope everyone has either evacuated, are executing their evacuation plans, or bringing their home prep to a close if they plan to ride it out. It looks like there's nothing left to do but pray for a miracle. This will be a life changing event for everyone down there.

[tolakram]

Getting the buzzsaw look again.

[floridasun78]

WOW, that is crazy. I can't even imagine.

I just went on their Twitter to see it... I didn't find it.

Is in their hurricane watch local statement for their east coastal zones https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... ne%20watch

i not seen that issue for miami wilma was not that strong and andrew wind were stronger to south

[KBBOCA]

Looks like some South Carolina evacuations will be ordered as of 10 a.m. SATURDAY. Don't see many details yet...

 https://twitter.com/NWSCharlestonSC/status/905866659793121281




 https://twitter.com/SCEMD/status/905865104314560513




--------

correction above. I initially typed that evacuations would begin 10 a.m. tomorrow (Friday), it's 10 a.m SATURDAY. Sorry for my mistake.

[jasons2k]

Not expecting any major shifts at 5.

[GCANE]

This is concerning but pretty much expected.
A persistent Theta-E Ridge over the Straits on approach to Miami.
Created by the Loop Current / Gulf Stream Heat Content.
Tropical Cyclones have a tendency to RI when they run into these.

[floridasun78]

look this could hurr for history for book matching andrew wilma will look bady hurr and andrew look like big brother to irma,

[CryHavoc]

Another visible loop

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_01&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80

Granted it's just a visible loop there, but it looks like the eyewall is tightening in those frames.