ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NFLnut]

Irma still a little north of forecast track.

That motion right there at this point COULD have significant impacts on track down the road- it is one reason I don't think the NHC will shift their track west hardly at all despite a model or two shifting west. This could counteract those models in my opinion.

I'd say that's close enough for government work! The edge of the eyewall is still hitting the points. I don't have to like it, but so far it's not making an unexpected move north.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

[tw eet]https://twitter.com/greentea166/status/905883206628626432[/tweet]

yup that is a good one, I've been telling everyone that locally too.

another tip is to remember that your water heater has many gallons of clean water in it too, all sealed up, and there is usually a spigot available near the bottom to pour it out from. If the electricity goes out, turn it off, and you can use the water from it for days.

I advised turning the power off to it so that you don't forget later to do so if you drain it, and the power returns trying to heat up an empty container. that could fry it, especially if an older model.

[floridasun78]

could this stay as cat 5?

[NFLnut]

Hurricane Irma: Solar flares could wreak HAVOC on satellites as storm barrels towards US

THE sun has released two huge solar flares, prompting fears they could affect global communications at a time when satellites are desperately needed.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/science/8 ... satellites

Oh great, Irma! Another kick to the groin while yer at it!

[supercane4867]

could this stay as cat 5?

It's probably going to stay as a CAT5 all the way to landfall if that occurs in Florida.

[Downdraft]

Just a thought folks. I see many that have been posting in here for years but are not contributors. You can all see how important Storm2K is and has been with storms like Harvey and Irma. Become a contributor. I know this is off topic but I think it needs to be said.

[NFLnut]

[twe et]https://twitter.com/greentea166/status/905883206628626432[/tweet]

yup that is a good one, I've been telling everyone that locally too.

another tip is to remember that your water heater has many gallons of clean water in it too, all sealed up, and there is usually a spigot available near the bottom to pour it out from. If the electricity goes out, turn it off, and you can use the water from it for days.

I advised turning the power off to it so that you don't forget later to do so if you drain it, and the power returns trying to heat up an empty container. that could fry it, especially if an older model.

Yes, BUT I don't think I would be drinking the crud that WILL come out of that spigot unless there isn't another drop of water from a nearby pond! Water heaters have tons of scale and rust inside of them, especially in Florida with our exceptionally hard water (that's the only reason that spigot is there: to drain out the sediment and crud from the bottom and discard of it). Now, if your water heater is fairly new, then maybe give it a go if you're desperate ... Do what us old-timers always did: scrub your bathtub with bleach, fill it, and voila .. your own private reservoir. You get thirsty enough, you'll drink that tub water (as long as the dog or cat haven't swam in it); you can attempt to regain your dignity later.

[newtotex]

could this stay as cat 5?

It's probably going to stay as a CAT5 all the way to landfall if that occurs in Florida.

Doesn't the NHC have this as a CAT 4 at landfall?

[TheStormExpert]

Track shifts to going over the exact center of the peninsula of Florida including Lake-O.

[Scorpion]

I am about 2 miles from the intracoastal and right by a creek that feeds into it. I am in Zone C it looks like. I will be staying and putting on shutters tomorrow. I don't think there is much of a surge risk is there?

[Exalt]

could this stay as cat 5?

It's probably going to stay as a CAT5 all the way to landfall if that occurs in Florida.

There's no real reason why it wouldn't, unless the Euro verifies and it hits Cuba. Bahamas aren't enough to screw with structure.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Incredible satellite presentation.

[floridasun78]

could this stay as cat 5?

It's probably going to stay as a CAT5 all the way to landfall if that occurs in Florida.

There's no real reason why it wouldn't, unless the Euro verifies and it hits Cuba. Bahamas aren't enough to screw with structure.

news say going drop to cat 4 and nhc

[Exalt]

could this stay as cat 5?

It's probably going to stay as a CAT5 all the way to landfall if that occurs in Florida.

Doesn't the NHC have this as a CAT 4 at landfall?

Keywords being IF that occurs in Florida.

If Irma does in fact hit Cuba, then yes, it's most likely that it will weaken enough to be a Cat 4 at landfall. However, if it stays north and the CDO and eye avoid landmasses, then there is no reason for it to not be a Cat 5.

[Evenstar]

I found this live web cam at the Hillsboro Inlet Lighthouse. The seas and the skies are ominous.
http://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/hil ... =hillsboro

**Sorry if someone already posted this link.

[HurricaneBelle]

441 is still pretty clear between Ocala and Gainesville-can skirt some of the traffic that way as well.

And if your ultimate goal is to head NW out of the state try US 19 along the west coast of FL - once you're north of Spring Hill in southern Hernando, it's almost like driving the interstate except for a brief slowdown to go through Crystal River and another small town or two.

[Exalt]

It's probably going to stay as a CAT5 all the way to landfall if that occurs in Florida.

There's no real reason why it wouldn't, unless the Euro verifies and it hits Cuba. Bahamas aren't enough to screw with structure.

news say going drop to cat 4 and nhc

News hasn't always been on point has it? Also, while the NHC has been very accurate in the track of Irma, they have been quite all over the place in accuracy when it comes to the intensity forecasts of Irma. Thing was forecast to weaken at its current forecast point, but it sure looks like it's restrengthening.

[RL3AO]

NHC shifted west a decent amount.

[cjrciadt]

Minutes away from the new cone,

[Aric Dunn]

she looks quite a better this afternoon. the eye is more stable with a more symmetric CDO of deep cool cloud tops.

next recon mayu find a intensifying system.