ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

lol.. or the plane says it has concentric features.. who knows with IRMA

[jlauderdal]

If for some reason the satellites get knocked out, any chance they double up the recon? Or not enough planes & pilots for it?

What the hell is going on?

You should probably avoid getting your science info from a British tabloid.

the same tabloids that said the sxm airport was destroyed...actually relief flights arrive tomorrow, typical caribbean bouncing back quickly and efficiently..cant minimize the damage but its all about recovery, you clear the runway, patch it up where needed and get relief in and not think twice about it..i expect a much faster recovery in sofla than we had with wilma, hopefully i am right...i can report people are taking this very seriously, haven't seen this prep since floyd

[leanne_uk]

The Daily Express is a not a paper taken seriously by people in the UK.... It's known for its ridiculous headlines and doomsday type stories.
British journalism at it's worst.

If for some reason the satellites get knocked out, any chance they double up the recon? Or not enough planes & pilots for it?

What the hell is going on?

You should probably avoid getting your science info from a British tabloid.

[KBBOCA]

WInd field has been expanding:
Hurricane force winds now 70 miles from center.

 https://twitter.com/SteveBowenWx/status/905899229008285696

[NDG]

I am sitting back and enjoying the look in the faces of the news Media here in Orlando acting all shocked that the track was shifted westward over Orlando, so sad but I have to laugh.

[KBBOCA]

Irma's consecutive hours as a Cat 5 - just amazing for the Atlantic!

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905903068973338624



 https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/905898336053370880

[KimmieLa]

We're hearing west shift but we're seeing consistently slightly north of trop points... (???)

Looks like last couple of frames, it is about due west, not seeing much northward motion just right now.

Not a Met, so just my feeble observation.

[KBBOCA]

Irma's eye - engulfing more islands tonight.

 https://twitter.com/KeraunosObs/status/905904149790896129

[superdeluxe]

Oh No looking at the latest updated track from NHC. Was hoping it would continue to go east and off shore. Does this track increase more inland counties declaring evacuations?

[Aric Dunn]

WInd field has been expanding:
Hurricane force winds now 70 miles from center.

 https://twitter.com/SteveBowenWx/status/905899229008285696

well I guess my earlier statement was off. so now.

IF you were to place IRMA over orlando the outer edges EYEwall would be just offshore both coasts.. lovely.. not good..

[Exalt]

I'm assuming this will break the total amount of time as a Cat 5 as well? Only 6 more hours till she ties Ivan and Allen..

[Sciencerocks]

Raw data from hurricane reconnaissance aircraft, courtesy of the
#National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
#For instructions on how to read the data, view:
#http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/data/NHC_recon_guide.pdf

203630 1211N 06858W 0060 00000 0061 +328 +147 000000 000 /// /// 03
203700 1211N 06858W 0060 00000 0061 +334 +146 000000 000 /// /// 03
203730 1211N 06858W 0060 00000 0061 +328 +146 000000 000 /// /// 03
203800 1211N 06858W 0060 00000 0061 +326 +145 000000 000 /// /// 03
203830 1211N 06858W 0060 00000 0061 +335 +145 000000 000 /// /// 03
203900 1211N 06858W 0060 00000 0061 +322 +144 000000 000 /// /// 03
203930 1211N 06858W 0060 00000 0061 +321 +144 000000 000 /// /// 03
204000 1211N 06858W 0060 00000 0061 +326 +144 000000 000 /// /// 03
204030 1211N 06858W 0060 00000 0061 +330 +143 000000 000 /// /// 03
204100 1211N 06858W 0059 00000 0060 +339 +143 000000 000 /// /// 03
204130 1211N 06858W 0059 00001 0062 +335 +143 000000 000 /// /// 03
204200 1211N 06858W 0059 00001 0062 +330 +143 000000 000 /// /// 03
204230 1211N 06858W 0059 00000 0060 +336 +143 000000 000 /// /// 03
204300 1211N 06858W 0059 00001 0061 +333 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
204330 1211N 06858W 0059 00001 0061 +340 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
204400 1211N 06858W 0059 00001 0061 +335 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
204430 1211N 06858W 0059 00001 0061 +334 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
204500 1211N 06858W 0059 00000 0060 +339 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
204530 1211N 06858W 0059 00001 0062 +336 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
204600 1211N 06858W 0059 00001 0062 +333 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
204630 1211N 06858W 0059 00001 0061 +336 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
204700 1211N 06858W 0059 00004 0063 +341 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
204730 1211N 06858W 0059 00001 0062 +335 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
204800 1211N 06858W 0059 00000 0060 +337 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
204830 1211N 06858W 0059 00001 0062 +337 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
204900 1211N 06858W 0059 00001 0062 +339 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
204930 1211N 06858W 0059 00001 0063 +340 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
205000 1211N 06858W 0060 00002 0063 +345 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
205030 1211N 06858W 0059 00004 0065 +336 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
205100 1211N 06858W 0059 00005 0067 +337 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
205130 1211N 06858W 0059 00001 0064 +347 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
205200 1211N 06858W 0060 00002 0064 +345 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
205230 1211N 06858W 0060 00002 0064 +338 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
205300 1211N 06858W 0060 00002 0064 +335 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
205330 1211N 06858W 0060 00005 0066 +333 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
205400 1211N 06858W 0061 00004 0066 +327 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
205430 1211N 06858W 0061 00002 0066 +325 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
205500 1211N 06858W 0061 00005 0067 +319 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
205530 1211N 06858W 0061 00005 0067 +323 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
205600 1211N 06858W 0061 00005 0068 +324 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
205630 1211N 06858W 0061 00007 0070 +319 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
205700 1211N 06858W 0061 00005 0069 +319 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
205730 1211N 06858W 0061 00007 0070 +320 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
205800 1211N 06858W 0061 00006 0070 +323 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
205830 1211N 06858W 0062 00005 0069 +323 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
205900 1211N 06858W 0061 00005 0068 +330 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
205930 1211N 06858W 0061 00019 0076 +335 +142 000000 000 /// /// 03
210000 1211N 06858W 0061 00002 0065 +341 +143 000000 000 /// /// 03
210030 1211N 06858W 0061 ///// 0052 +340 +143 000000 000 /// /// 23
210100 1211N 06858W 0062 ///// 0041 +335 +144 000000 000 /// /// 23
210130 1211N 06859W 0063 ///// 0040 +338 +144 000000 000 /// /// 23
210200 1211N 06859W 0063 ///// 0044 +334 +145 000000 000 /// /// 23
210230 1211N 06859W 0063 00000 0056 +340 +146 000000 000 /// /// 03
210300 1211N 06859W 0063 ///// 0028 +338 +146 000000 000 /// /// 23
210330 1211N 06859W 0063 ///// 0018 +340 +147 000000 000 /// /// 23
210400 1211N 06859W 0063 ///// 0031 +337 +147 000000 000 /// /// 23
210430 1211N 06859W 0063 ///// 0061 +339 +148 000000 000 /// /// 23
210500 1211N 06859W 0063 00000 0064 +340 +149 000000 000 /// /// 03
210530 1211N 06859W 0063 00004 0067 +327 +149 000000 000 /// /// 03
210600 1212N 06858W 0057 00002 0063 +305 +158 085003 008 /// /// 03
210630 1211N 06858W 0022 00022 0057 +292 +186 085010 013 /// /// 03
210700 1211N 06856W 9922 00123 0060 +289 +171 107009 012 /// /// 03
210730 1211N 06855W 9689 00330 0056 +279 +162 152008 009 /// /// 03
210800 1212N 06853W 9335 00656 0056 +257 +144 173010 011 /// /// 03
210830 1213N 06852W 9200 00798 0070 +247 +133 179013 014 /// /// 03
210900 1214N 06850W 9079 00909 0064 +239 +126 179014 014 /// /// 03
210930 1214N 06848W 8696 01280 0060 +213 +114 187014 015 /// /// 03
211000 1215N 06846W 8294 01691 0064 +189 +095 179015 016 /// /// 03
211030 1216N 06845W 7968 02045 0077 +167 +053 164017 017 /// /// 03
211100 1216N 06843W 7759 02270 0081 +148 +037 162016 016 /// /// 03
211130 1217N 06842W 7491 02568 0084 +129 +028 167013 016 /// /// 03
211200 1219N 06842W 7377 02699 0089 +118 +019 165012 013 /// /// 03
211230 1221N 06842W 7201 02901 0090 +105 +012 172012 013 /// /// 03
211300 1222N 06843W 7001 03136 0085 +097 -028 160010 012 /// /// 03
211330 1224N 06844W 6821 03354 0077 +092 -070 161008 009 /// /// 03
211400 1226N 06844W 6661 03553 0082 +077 -070 153009 009 /// /// 03
211430 1228N 06845W 6508 03745 0081 +067 -093 153010 010 /// /// 03
211500 1230N 06846W 6369 03921 0069 +064 -118 148009 010 /// /// 03
211530 1231N 06846W 6226 04106 0067 +054 -138 143006 008 /// /// 03
211600 1233N 06847W 6082 04296 0068 +039 -106 108005 005 /// /// 03
211630 1235N 06848W 5963 04451 0062 +030 -111 104007 007 /// /// 03
211700 1237N 06848W 5854 04608 0066 +021 -139 108008 008 /// /// 03
211730 1239N 06849W 5747 04753 0060 +014 -159 117007 008 /// /// 03
211800 1241N 06850W 5635 04912 0061 +004 -193 101006 007 /// /// 03
211830 1242N 06850W 5523 05072 0072 -010 -203 084006 006 /// /// 03
211900 1244N 06851W 5436 05201 0250 -019 -225 094007 007 /// /// 03
211930 1246N 06852W 5357 05320 0258 -026 -236 110008 008 /// /// 03
212000 1248N 06852W 5280 05432 0262 -033 -238 121008 009 /// /// 03
212030 1250N 06853W 5204 05547 0270 -040 -259 115011 012 /// /// 03
212100 1252N 06854W 5135 05653 0277 -045 -302 117013 014 /// /// 03
212130 1254N 06855W 5064 05764 0285 -048 -326 116014 014 /// /// 03
212200 1256N 06855W 4989 05884 0295 -052 -330 111015 015 /// /// 03
212230 1258N 06856W 4941 05959 0300 -055 -267 119017 018 /// /// 03
212300 1300N 06857W 4843 06117 0310 -063 -269 122018 019 /// /// 03
212330 1302N 06858W 4768 06241 0319 -070 -340 122017 017 /// /// 03
212400 1304N 06858W 4711 06336 0326 -073 -317 120016 017 /// /// 03
212430 1306N 06859W 4650 06438 0333 -078 -326 116014 015 /// /// 03
212500 1308N 06900W 4588 06541 0340 -085 -316 113013 013 /// /// 03
212530 1310N 06900W 4542 06621 0346 -087 -328 114013 013 /// /// 03
212600 1312N 06900W 4490 06709 0352 -093 -342 117013 013 /// /// 03

[KBBOCA]

An important graphic showing the projected size of the storm relative to the width of Florida...

 https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/905907442000723969

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072136
AF309 1811A IRMA HDOB 06 20170907
212630 1314N 06859W 4447 06783 0355 -096 -365 120011 013 /// /// 03
212700 1316N 06859W 4401 06861 0359 -100 -401 120010 011 /// /// 03
212730 1318N 06859W 4367 06925 0366 -105 -413 126011 011 /// /// 03
212800 1320N 06858W 4328 06994 0371 -110 -414 126010 011 /// /// 03
212830 1322N 06858W 4295 07051 0373 -115 -411 132010 010 /// /// 03
212900 1324N 06858W 4263 07108 0378 -119 -405 141009 009 /// /// 03
212930 1326N 06857W 4236 07161 0383 -122 -361 151009 010 /// /// 03
213000 1328N 06857W 4202 07218 0385 -126 -278 153010 010 /// /// 03
213030 1331N 06857W 4126 07360 0395 -137 -264 152011 011 /// /// 03
213100 1333N 06856W 4103 07405 0402 -139 -246 157011 012 /// /// 03
213130 1335N 06856W 4080 07447 0404 -140 -256 159012 013 /// /// 03
213200 1337N 06856W 4056 07493 0407 -143 -261 156012 013 /// /// 03
213230 1339N 06855W 4026 07550 0413 -145 -266 157011 011 /// /// 03
213300 1341N 06855W 4003 07594 0416 -146 -278 163010 010 /// /// 03
213330 1343N 06855W 3982 07637 0420 -150 -311 170009 010 /// /// 03
213400 1345N 06855W 3961 07677 0424 -150 -361 178009 010 /// /// 03
213430 1347N 06854W 3941 07714 0425 -150 -358 179009 010 /// /// 03
213500 1349N 06854W 3925 07744 0426 -154 -343 181008 009 /// /// 03
213530 1351N 06854W 3925 07744 0426 -155 -344 181008 008 /// /// 03
213600 1353N 06853W 3925 07744 0425 -155 -332 181008 008 /// /// 03
$$

[KBBOCA]

A comparison of NHC's last two tracks and slight shift west. Both really bad scenarios.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905907316104585216

[Spoomsister]

Currently if you placed IRMA middle of the state. the outer edges of the eyewall would be touching both coasts..

Holy S*&%!!! No way man. Can someone make this graphic?

[superdeluxe]

A comparison of NHC's last two tracks and slight shift west. Both really bad scenarios.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905907316104585216

What track is worse for Miami-Dade?

[NDG]

We're hearing west shift but we're seeing consistently slightly north of trop points... (???)

Looks like last couple of frames, it is about due west, not seeing much northward motion just right now.

Not a Met, so just my feeble observation.

I don't think the satellite loop that they are looking at is well synchronized with the latitudes & longitudes, the 5 PM fix by the NHC at the advisory was at 20.9N & 71.1W, if yo look at the satellite picture for the same time the latest fix was releases with coordinate lines on, it appears that the eye of Irma is at 21.1N
Who do I believe the satellite or the experts at the NHC? Of course the experts.

[Blown Away]

I'm surprised there is more error on Right side of cone than Left given west bias towards Euro??

[KBBOCA]

A comparison of NHC's last two tracks and slight shift west. Both really bad scenarios.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905907316104585216

What track is worse for Miami-Dade?

BOTH.
They are both devastating tracks. Places Miami in the eyewall either way.