ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

From this article: http://grist.org/briefly/heres-why-irma-is-a-monster-hurricane-in-one-gif/

Andrew's size compared to Irma

[Exalt]

A comparison of NHC's last two tracks and slight shift west. Both really bad scenarios.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905907316104585216

What track is worse for Miami-Dade?

Both.

[Aric Dunn]

Currently if you placed IRMA middle of the state. the outer edges of the eyewall would be touching both coasts..

Holy S*&%!!! No way man. Can someone make this graphic?

I mean this is just simulated radar. and not centered or symmetric but gives you a good "eyedea"
lol

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072146
AF309 1811A IRMA HDOB 07 20170907
213630 1355N 06853W 3923 07744 0424 -156 -368 176007 007 /// /// 03
213700 1358N 06853W 3925 07740 0423 -157 -430 170007 007 /// /// 03
213730 1400N 06852W 3925 07741 0424 -155 -454 166007 007 /// /// 03
213800 1402N 06852W 3925 07742 0426 -155 -452 165007 007 /// /// 03
213830 1405N 06852W 3923 07744 0425 -158 -454 168007 008 /// /// 03
213900 1407N 06851W 3925 07744 0426 -160 -459 168009 010 /// /// 03
213930 1410N 06851W 3925 07745 0427 -160 -463 167010 010 /// /// 03
214000 1412N 06850W 3923 07744 0426 -160 -466 169009 010 /// /// 03
214030 1414N 06850W 3925 07742 0424 -157 -465 170008 009 /// /// 03
214100 1417N 06850W 3923 07744 0425 -155 -467 174008 008 /// /// 03
214130 1419N 06849W 3924 07744 0425 -158 -471 174007 008 /// /// 03
214200 1422N 06849W 3925 07744 0426 -160 -467 165009 009 /// /// 03
214230 1424N 06849W 3923 07746 0427 -160 -456 173008 010 /// /// 03
214300 1427N 06848W 3923 07746 0427 -164 -450 154011 011 /// /// 03
214330 1430N 06848W 3925 07745 0428 -163 -447 155010 011 /// /// 03
214400 1432N 06847W 3925 07745 0428 -164 -444 157010 010 /// /// 03
214430 1435N 06847W 3923 07749 0428 -163 -440 157011 011 /// /// 03
214500 1437N 06847W 3923 07750 0430 -160 -440 152011 011 /// /// 03
214530 1440N 06846W 3923 07750 0431 -160 -443 152011 011 /// /// 03
214600 1442N 06846W 3923 07751 0431 -160 -449 157011 011 /// /// 03
$$
;

[KBBOCA]

Helpful resource:

Here’s a comprehensive list of websites with evacuation zones in all states from @FederalAlliance:

http://flash.org/2017EvacuationZones.pdf


 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/905908204823040002

[KBBOCA]

More models, more bad news for Miami.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/905909020007043072

[Meteorcane]

A comparison of NHC's last two tracks and slight shift west. Both really bad scenarios.

What track is worse for Miami-Dade?

The most recent one is worse, heck it is about as bad a track as one can get as it would bring the northern/northeastern eyewall into metro S Florida you would see wind gusts 150+ assuming Irma was a Cat4 at landfall. A track further west inline with the Euro would even be better (and that would not be "good" by any metric as 100+ gusts would still be possible for the whole area with 120+ gusts in the western suburbs), while a track east is obviously the best scenario for S.Florida (although any track in which the western eyewall comes on shore would still be damaging)..

[Hurrilurker]

A comparison of NHC's last two tracks and slight shift west. Both really bad scenarios.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905907316104585216

What track is worse for Miami-Dade?

I'm going to say the east track is a bit worse because it brings the core back out over water for a significant period of time before 2nd landfall. But the west track would cause more devastation in heavily-populated Orlando.

[Michele B]

A comparison of NHC's last two tracks and slight shift west. Both really bad scenarios.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905907316104585216

What track is worse for Miami-Dade?

Irma's track.

There is no good scenario here.

[Meteorcane]

More models, more bad news for Miami.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/905909020007043072

I admit I don't know much about the model off-hand (I don't think many not associated with the weather company do), but it is helpful and transparent they list out their parameterization schemes on the images they show of it.

[johngaltfla]

I would expect the NHC to move the track westward but not far as west as the UKMET and ECMWF as we know they usually do not like to be too dramatic on a change, it will be gradual as long as the models keep shifting westward.
So I will think that they will have landfall near Key Largo then up just near or just west of Homestead western Dade County then into Lake Okeechobee through the Orlando area into the Jacksonville area or just west of them.
IMO.

I swear I did not hacked into their computers

I'm blaming you. You hacked Irma and made her come closer to my location.

[KBBOCA]

I know that most of our focus here is now the future track of Irma... but just happened to see an update from St. Barth at Storm Carib.

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/stbarts.shtml

Miraculously, No loss of life!!!

Projected 1 month without electricity.

Also re: Barbuda - a voluntary evacuation of the Island to Antigua is underway, especially as Barbuda will be closest to Jose impacts.
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/barbuda.shtml
https://antiguaobserver.com/voluntary-e ... uda-photo/

[superdeluxe]

What track is worse for Miami-Dade?

BOTH.
They are both devastating tracks. Places Miami in the eyewall either way.

Well that is not good.

[Cunxi Huang]

It has been a few hours but this round of EWRC is still not completed.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072156
AF309 1811A IRMA HDOB 08 20170907
214630 1445N 06845W 3926 07746 0431 -156 -455 165011 011 /// /// 03
214700 1447N 06845W 3922 07756 0432 -159 -461 168011 011 /// /// 03
214730 1450N 06845W 3925 07749 0432 -155 -462 176009 011 /// /// 03
214800 1453N 06844W 3925 07749 0433 -154 -465 188008 008 /// /// 03
214830 1455N 06844W 3923 07754 0433 -152 -468 189008 009 /// /// 03
214900 1458N 06843W 3926 07748 0432 -155 -466 177010 010 /// /// 03
214930 1500N 06843W 3922 07756 0433 -153 -462 181009 011 /// /// 03
215000 1503N 06843W 3925 07750 0433 -152 -464 177010 010 /// /// 03
215030 1506N 06842W 3923 07751 0433 -151 -466 175011 012 /// /// 03
215100 1508N 06842W 3925 07751 0433 -151 -463 168012 012 /// /// 03
215130 1511N 06842W 3925 07753 0434 -150 -457 169012 012 /// /// 03
215200 1513N 06841W 3924 07754 0435 -150 -448 173012 012 /// /// 03
215230 1516N 06841W 3923 07754 0434 -150 -443 175012 012 /// /// 03
215300 1518N 06840W 3923 07748 0428 -150 -443 173012 012 /// /// 03
215330 1521N 06840W 3923 07744 0425 -150 -442 174012 012 /// /// 03
215400 1524N 06840W 3925 07742 0424 -150 -441 172013 013 /// /// 03
215430 1526N 06839W 3923 07744 0424 -150 -441 174013 013 /// /// 03
215500 1529N 06839W 3923 07742 0423 -150 -447 174013 013 /// /// 03
215530 1531N 06838W 3923 07743 0423 -150 -454 173013 014 /// /// 03
215600 1534N 06838W 3923 07743 0423 -151 -451 166014 014 /// /// 03
$$
;

[CourierPR]

A comparison of NHC's last two tracks and slight shift west. Both really bad scenarios


What track is worse for Miami-Dade?

The track on the left is worse which is the latest from NHC. The eye is 28 miles wide and the track puts metro Miami-Dade and Broward Counties in the core of the storm.

[Aric Dunn]

It has been a few hours but this round of EWRC is still not completed.

it might be really close to being finished.. the satellite presentation is becoming better by the minute.

[KBBOCA]

Latest Storm Surge advisory from Key West NWS:
Water is expected to reach 5-10 feet ABOVE GROUND along the #FLKeys if the peak storm surge occurs at the time of high tide. #Irma #FLwx

 https://twitter.com/NWSKeyWest/status/905913362076151808

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/EUStormMap/status/905906902403612672



#eustorm @EUStormMap
Current conditions in The outer Eyewall now affecting Providenciales, Turks And Caicos Islands! Thank you IG@daisyhadfield1 for sharing this
5:33 PM - Sep 7, 2017

[KBBOCA]

Hope everyone on here in the Keys has already evacuated, but if not, info on gas in the keys. 5 stations open.

 https://twitter.com/monroecounty/status/905914722217840641