ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

Doesn't look like a cat.5 anymore. I know it's the weaker side but the winds are barely 120kts -- unless im missing something.

The pressure has not gone up and it has not sampled the NW quadrant yet.

I see the pressures, but the way I'm interpolating it, when the system had 160kts winds in the NW quad, the SE quad would have at least 140-145kt winds.

[Aric Dunn]

wow.. brand new microwave just 30 min old... inner eye really falling part...

[KBBOCA]

Human resilience is quite amazing. I'm so thankful that some of the pro mets under such stress in Miami are keeping up a sense of humor somehow.

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/905938701959749632




 https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status/905936326490558464




Eric Blake, John Morales and others are going way above & beyond with their outreach to the public, responsiveness to questions, etc. They are saving lives for sure.

[TheAustinMan]

Overlaid microwave imagery atop the recon data. Might explain why the winds on approach were relatively low compared to what we've been seeing. The eyewall replacement cycle is underway.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072346
AF309 1811A IRMA HDOB 19 20170907
233630 2115N 07154W 6966 02462 9235 +157 +098 056063 072 064 004 03
233700 2116N 07155W 6954 02500 9269 +143 +108 056088 098 130 006 03
233730 2117N 07156W 6963 02526 9345 +110 +103 050127 139 137 044 00
233800 2118N 07158W 7006 02523 9400 +103 +087 049138 143 139 058 03
233830 2119N 07159W 6948 02644 9458 +097 +075 053144 146 118 082 00
233900 2120N 07200W 6978 02640 9505 +089 +066 054139 144 121 057 03
233930 2121N 07201W 6952 02718 9548 +092 +054 057133 138 116 005 00
234000 2123N 07202W 6972 02729 9579 +104 +053 055124 129 117 000 00
234030 2124N 07204W 6968 02763 9613 +101 +052 055118 121 114 003 00
234100 2125N 07205W 6953 02808 9647 +096 +056 057119 120 108 009 00
234130 2126N 07206W 6966 02815 9669 +098 +055 056116 118 103 006 00
234200 2127N 07207W 6966 02837 9670 +119 +057 056111 115 102 003 00
234230 2129N 07209W 6961 02860 9692 +119 +062 057109 113 099 001 00
234300 2130N 07210W 6955 02894 9752 +086 +055 058119 122 093 005 00
234330 2131N 07211W 6977 02881 9785 +075 +047 051114 118 091 014 00
234400 2132N 07213W 6967 02912 9813 +067 +039 053112 114 088 022 00
234430 2133N 07214W 6958 02933 9819 +072 +039 054113 114 083 032 00
234500 2135N 07215W 6985 02923 9837 +075 +046 051106 111 084 027 03
234530 2136N 07216W 6949 02973 9849 +073 +044 051110 111 /// /// 03
234600 2137N 07218W 6974 02950 9866 +069 +041 048106 110 /// /// 03
$$
;

146 knts at the flight with 139 and 137knt smrf. Enough to keep it a cat5 with the smrf's.

[Steve]

turnpike is overwhelmed. would advise to use back roads

I love the back roads for evacuations. Used them to get far from Jacksonville/Matthew last year (and back). They're generally empty, more peaceful, and you get to see new sights.

There are (going by drudge) thousands of cars abandoned because they ran out of gas on the pike

Not confirmed

Surprised?

[NDG]

NW quadrant.

233730 2117N 07156W 6963 02526 9345 +110 +103 050127 139 137 044 00
233800 2118N 07158W 7006 02523 9400 +103 +087 049138 143 139 058 03
233830 2119N 07159W 6948 02644 9458 +097 +075 053144 146 118 082 00
233900 2120N 07200W 6978 02640 9505 +089 +066 054139 144 121 057 03
233930 2121N 07201W 6952 02718 9548 +092 +054 057133 138 116 005 00

[galaxy401]

Cat 5 winds still on the NW eyewall.

[CrazyC83]

Cat 5 winds still on the NW eyewall.

I'd probably go with 140 or 145 kt.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Once the EWRC is over a larger eye should appear, correct?

[1900hurricane]

The core's pressure gradient is pretty torched right now. I'd say it is unlikely that Irma is a category 5 at the moment, but this very well be the moment of lowest winds through the process of eyewall replacement since the pressure gradient will begin to sharpen in the outer eyewall.

*EDIT: durr, I should wait for the full pass. ~140 kt SFMR.

[plasticup]

917.8 mbar, but only 121 knot winds so far

[Aric Dunn]

Once the EWRC is over a larger eye should appear, correct?

yes normally..

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I am seeing alot of tweets out of miami about people not being able to leave because there is still no gas. Seems like panic is setting in.

[KBBOCA]

Steve Bowen didn't "@" Ryan Maue, but I imagine he's one of the meteorologists he had in mind when he tweeted the following. Agree:

 https://twitter.com/SteveBowenWx/status/905940189058666496




 https://twitter.com/SteveBowenWx/status/905940887297024000




I guess it's a good reminder for all of us to keep focused on the forecast and the facts as best as we know them and try to keep the hype / fear-mongering to a minimum. All y'all here on Storm 2K are doing an amazing job of that! Thank you.

[Sciencerocks]

139 knt smrf's. Flight level is a little low but smrf supports cat5.

[SouthDadeFish]

Irma may be slightly "weaker" but is still a category-5 hurricane. I'm surprised the IR presentation is as impressive as it is with the inner eyewall looking so poor on microwave. The new eye will likely be very large.

[NDG]

I am seeing alot of tweets out of miami about people not being able to leave because there is still no gas. Seems like panic is setting in.

And thank God the state of emergency was announced days ago otherwise today would have been even crazier down in Miami.

[RL3AO]

Seeing a hurricane maintain as a cat 5 during a EWRC is incredible. I dare say we haven't seen Irma's lowest pressure yet.

[Snowman67]

Come on Michelle. Lets be serious. If it hits 100B, it will be one of only two storms in history though we are still counting Harvey. If it hits 175B, it will be the only one. So multiply that times six.

People believe anything nowadays.

I've seen several estimates coming in for Harvey around the $200 Billion mark. They are predicting that it will easily surpass the Katrina figure.