ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

sometimes you just have to look at the bigger picture.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html

a little perspective.

[Steve]

I've seen several estimates coming in for Harvey around the $200 Billion mark. They are predicting that it will easily surpass the Katrina figure.

We have a thread in Talkin' Tropics. Last update I saw was $80B with more to come. 200 could happen but would be beyond the end of a legit range. Point is Maue was being a kind of a chump by posting that and drawing attention to a tweet and stoking paranoia among an excitable fanbase. I'll leave it at that.

My point to her and now to you is you really think even if Harvey becomes our most costly storm in history at 200B, do you really think we can exceed that with a like event by a factor of 5? It's not in any way realistic, and I'm glad that other met called him out on his Bull.

I am acutely aware that $1 Trillion is in la la land. Living in the Houston area, I don't think 200B is out of the question for Harvey when it's all said and done.

For sure. Weigh in when you get a chance on that other thread if you run across some good sources. Katrina is 160B today's dollars and I feel like Harvey could approach or top. It's a way worse and uniqu storm than Katrina. Irma's got some serious potential too.

[KC7NEC]

I've seen several estimates coming in for Harvey around the $200 Billion mark. They are predicting that it will easily surpass the Katrina figure.

We have a thread in Talkin' Tropics. Last update I saw was $80B with more to come. 200 could happen but would be beyond the end of a legit range. Point is Maue was being a kind of a chump by posting that and drawing attention to a tweet and stoking paranoia among an excitable fanbase. I'll leave it at that.

My point to her and now to you is you really think even if Harvey becomes our most costly storm in history at 200B, do you really think we can exceed that with a like event by a factor of 5? It's not in any way realistic, and I'm glad that other met called him out on his Bull.

A Cat 5 storm? Tearing apart HOW many buildings? Tearing apart how much infrastructure? Displacing how many Floridians?

This isn't like TX, where it was a portion of the state. This thing wants to go up the ENTIRE LENGTH of the state, AND wipe out the keys...a huge tourist attraction....AND Orlando is thrown into the mix, with all its tourist attractions.

IDK. I think I'll stand by my estimate that 1T isn't outrageous.

Disneyworld will likely close for only its 5th time ever.

[KBBOCA]

Don't know much at all about IBM's Deep Thunder model, but a number of seemingly well-respected mets have been tweeting about it, and the runs are alarmingly consistent...

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/905948568657293314




 https://twitter.com/MPalmerTWC/status/905946386532851712

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 0:00Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 18
Observation Number: 03 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 23:33:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°07'N 71°45'W (21.1167N 71.75W)
B. Center Fix Location: 46 statute miles (74 km) to the WSW (238°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,377m (7,799ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 102kts (~ 117.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the ESE (122°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 212° at 120kts (From the SSW at ~ 138.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ESE (123°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 920mb (27.17 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,084m (10,118ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 146kts (~ 168.0mph) which was observed 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the NW (313°) from the flight level center at 23:38:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 190° at 11kts (From the S at 13mph)

[Michele B]

The thing about this storm is that there is virtually NOTHING to compare it with.

There is no other storm that has numbers like this one, nor has another storm done what she's done so far (Cat 5 so long, rapid and often EWRC, etc).

There's no comparison, literally. We can look at some that did SOME of the same things, but NONE to this extent. I think that's why there's so much trepidation of what's going to happen, and so much panic, AND so much hyperbole.

[Steve]

I've seen several estimates coming in for Harvey around the $200 Billion mark. They are predicting that it will easily surpass the Katrina figure.

We have a thread in Talkin' Tropics. Last update I saw was $80B with more to come. 200 could happen but would be beyond the end of a legit range. Point is Maue was being a kind of a chump by posting that and drawing attention to a tweet and stoking paranoia among an excitable fanbase. I'll leave it at that.

My point to her and now to you is you really think even if Harvey becomes our most costly storm in history at 200B, do you really think we can exceed that with a like event by a factor of 5? It's not in any way realistic, and I'm glad that other met called him out on his Bull.

A Cat 5 storm? Tearing apart HOW many buildings? Tearing apart how much infrastructure? Displacing how many Floridians?

This isn't like TX, where it was a portion of the state. This thing wants to go up the ENTIRE LENGTH of the state, AND wipe out the keys...a huge tourist attraction....AND Orlando is thrown into the mix, with all its tourist attractions.

IDK. I think I'll stand by my estimate that 1T isn't outrageous.

Okay.

[KBBOCA]

A bit off-topic, but kind of cool to see this gesture of solidarity by the Braves for Miami evacuees...

 https://twitter.com/Braves/status/905885177951465472

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080026
AF309 1811A IRMA HDOB 23 20170908
001630 2124N 07308W 6967 03084 9989 +085 +010 024072 074 051 002 00
001700 2121N 07308W 6966 03085 9984 +090 +004 022070 071 050 002 00
001730 2119N 07308W 6966 03084 9983 +090 +004 022070 071 050 002 00
001800 2117N 07308W 6967 03080 9984 +085 +004 020071 071 050 003 00
001830 2114N 07307W 6963 03085 9980 +089 +007 017070 072 121 004 03
001900 2112N 07307W 6967 03078 9975 +090 +009 017070 071 /// /// 03
001930 2110N 07307W 6967 03077 9978 +087 +012 015068 070 /// /// 03
002000 2107N 07307W 6982 03058 9995 +072 +030 014069 070 /// /// 03
002030 2105N 07307W 6957 03085 9994 +070 +036 009070 075 /// /// 03
002100 2103N 07307W 6973 03077 9995 +074 +037 005068 070 /// /// 03
002130 2100N 07307W 6968 03075 9998 +071 +026 003070 070 056 003 00
002200 2058N 07306W 6961 03084 9995 +071 +032 356067 071 051 015 00
002230 2056N 07306W 6965 03081 0004 +068 +032 354064 066 048 011 03
002300 2053N 07306W 6962 03085 9996 +073 +027 351063 063 047 006 00
002330 2051N 07306W 6964 03084 9993 +077 +028 347065 068 048 005 00
002400 2049N 07306W 6967 03081 9992 +079 +031 350061 063 045 004 00
002430 2046N 07306W 6966 03085 9992 +080 +029 350061 062 045 004 03
002500 2044N 07306W 6967 03084 9995 +078 +027 349063 064 044 004 00
002530 2042N 07305W 6965 03086 0006 +070 +026 344064 065 043 005 03
002600 2039N 07305W 6965 03089 0005 +071 +028 346063 065 041 004 00
$$
;

[WeatherGuesser]

185 mph max winds for 37 hours – the longest any cyclone around the globe has maintained that intensity on record. The previous record was Haiyan in the NW Pacific at 24 hours

- Generated the most Accumulated Cyclone Energy by a tropical cyclone on record in the tropical Atlantic (7.5-20°N, 60-20°W)

- 44.2 Accumulated Cyclone Energy units so far – the 11th most by an Atlantic hurricane in the satellite era (since 1966)
- Generated more Accumulated Cyclone Energy than 12 entire Atlantic hurricane seasons in the satellite era (since 1966)

https://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/m ... ecords.pdf

[nutkin517]

I've seen several estimates coming in for Harvey around the $200 Billion mark. They are predicting that it will easily surpass the Katrina figure.

We have a thread in Talkin' Tropics. Last update I saw was $80B with more to come. 200 could happen but would be beyond the end of a legit range. Point is Maue was being a kind of a chump by posting that and drawing attention to a tweet and stoking paranoia among an excitable fanbase. I'll leave it at that.

My point to her and now to you is you really think even if Harvey becomes our most costly storm in history at 200B, do you really think we can exceed that with a like event by a factor of 5? It's not in any way realistic, and I'm glad that other met called him out on his Bull.

A Cat 5 storm? Tearing apart HOW many buildings? Tearing apart how much infrastructure? Displacing how many Floridians?

This isn't like TX, where it was a portion of the state. This thing wants to go up the ENTIRE LENGTH of the state, AND wipe out the keys...a huge tourist attraction....AND Orlando is thrown into the mix, with all its tourist attractions.

IDK. I think I'll stand by my estimate that 1T isn't outrageous.

Have you seen the map of the area affected by Harvey transposed onto other states? It took up the vast majority of Florida.

[Rail Dawg]

Heading to Miami in the morning with 100 gallons of gas/diesel.

28" chainsaw and 2 weeks of supplies.

Done this a dozen times including chasing Matthew from Cape Canaveral to Jacksonsville with 120 mph wind on the nose of the truck for hours.

Won't go into details but I play this very safe and always have a plan.

[Stangfriik]

Heading to Miami in the morning with 100 gallons of gas/diesel.

28" chainsaw and 2 weeks of supplies.

Done this a dozen times including chasing Matthew from Cape Canaveral to Jacksonsville with 120 mph wind on the nose of the truck for hours.

Won't go into details but I play this very safe and always have a plan.

You chased Matthew up the coast didn't you?

I remember your posts

[NDG]

Recon's fix on Irma confirms that by looking at the satellite is giving you the impression that she is at a higher latitude by a good .2-.3 of latitude.

Satellite picture when the recon fixed its location which was at 21.1N & 71.75W




URNT12 KNHC 080000
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 07/23:33:40Z
B. 21 deg 07 min N
071 deg 45 min W
C. 700 mb 2377 m
D. 102 kt
E. 122 deg 8 nm
F. 212 deg 120 kt
G. 123 deg 10 nm
H. 920 mb
I. 9 C / 3084 m
J. 18 C / 3044 m
K. 10 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C20
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 1811A IRMA OB 03
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 146 KT 313 / 17 NM 23:38:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 190 / 11 KT

[Rail Dawg]

Heading to Miami in the morning with 100 gallons of gas/diesel.

28" chainsaw and 2 weeks of supplies.

Done this a dozen times including chasing Matthew from Cape Canaveral to Jacksonsville with 120 mph wind on the nose of the truck for hours.

Won't go into details but I play this very safe and always have a plan.

You chased Matthew up the coast didn't you?

I remember your posts

Yes on the A1A.

Passed the Weather Channel folks hunkering in Daytona Beach lol.

Averaged about 15 miles an hour.

[GCANE]

Large areas of 3500 CAPE air ahead of Irma and before FL.
Keeping an eye on this.
Also noted earlier, this area is maintaining a persistent Theta-E ridge.
All in association with the hot water funneling out of the GOM thru the Straits.
Forecasted Miami Sounding, just below before landfall, shown below.
Air column saturated top to bottom.
IMHO all the ingredients for intensification up to landfall.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080036
AF309 1811A IRMA HDOB 24 20170908
002630 2037N 07305W 6965 03091 0004 +076 +026 342062 064 040 002 00
002700 2035N 07305W 6967 03092 9997 +085 +020 338062 063 040 001 00
002730 2033N 07305W 6967 03096 0004 +081 +021 337057 061 040 001 00
002800 2030N 07305W 6965 03100 9995 +092 +023 337053 055 040 000 00
002830 2028N 07305W 6966 03103 9995 +096 +017 334053 053 040 001 03
002900 2026N 07305W 6963 03109 9994 +100 +014 333053 054 039 000 00
002930 2024N 07304W 6966 03109 9998 +100 +010 330051 052 038 000 00
003000 2022N 07304W 6965 03114 0004 +099 +009 329049 051 037 000 00
003030 2019N 07304W 6967 03117 0008 +098 +004 325048 049 036 000 00
003100 2017N 07304W 6965 03121 0011 +099 +001 325048 048 035 001 00
003130 2015N 07304W 6967 03121 0013 +101 -002 322049 050 035 000 03
003200 2013N 07303W 6962 03129 0009 +105 -002 319048 050 /// /// 03
003230 2013N 07301W 6965 03124 0009 +105 -001 318045 047 /// /// 03
003300 2014N 07300W 6970 03119 0013 +100 -004 318044 045 034 001 00
003330 2016N 07259W 6965 03123 0020 +094 -008 320044 045 035 000 00
003400 2017N 07257W 6965 03119 0013 +096 -013 318044 045 035 000 00
003430 2018N 07256W 6967 03113 0001 +100 -001 318046 047 038 001 00
003500 2019N 07255W 6965 03103 9992 +096 +012 321047 048 038 001 00
003530 2021N 07253W 6967 03093 9991 +093 +012 320049 049 040 002 03
003600 2022N 07252W 6967 03090 0004 +076 +024 319052 054 041 002 00
$$
;

[SoupBone]

I've seen several estimates coming in for Harvey around the $200 Billion mark. They are predicting that it will easily surpass the Katrina figure.

We have a thread in Talkin' Tropics. Last update I saw was $80B with more to come. 200 could happen but would be beyond the end of a legit range. Point is Maue was being a kind of a chump by posting that and drawing attention to a tweet and stoking paranoia among an excitable fanbase. I'll leave it at that.

My point to her and now to you is you really think even if Harvey becomes our most costly storm in history at 200B, do you really think we can exceed that with a like event by a factor of 5? It's not in any way realistic, and I'm glad that other met called him out on his Bull.

A Cat 5 storm? Tearing apart HOW many buildings? Tearing apart how much infrastructure? Displacing how many Floridians?

This isn't like TX, where it was a portion of the state. This thing wants to go up the ENTIRE LENGTH of the state, AND wipe out the keys...a huge tourist attraction....AND Orlando is thrown into the mix, with all its tourist attractions.

IDK. I think I'll stand by my estimate that 1T isn't outrageous.

Not to jump in this off topic discussion, but you weren't paying attention if you think this. Harvey went from Corpus Christi through Beaumont and into Western Louisiana tearing up both states, and would likely be larger than the entire state of Florida. Thankfully, the winds went way down following landfall, but you are factually incorrect regarding Texas, which by the way, is still dealing with the floodwaters.

[Rail Dawg]

I am a first responder.

Rescued 150+ people with my boat during Harvey.

Treacherous isn't the word.

I go in to help clear roads and fuel desperate folks trapped on the highways.

Nothing selfish.

Done this a dozen times.

[GCANE]

This is the Hurricane Irma discussion right?

Sorry, wrong plane. Updated above. Thanks