ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

Northeast eye wall supports only low cat4 winds.

The northwest eyewall from earlier is enough to keep it around 140 knots but certainly a weakening storm.

[HurricaneBelle]

Official NWS Forecast for peak wind gusts.

(image deleted)

Can you post that map for the northern half of the state?

[FLpanhandle91]

Possible downgrade to cat 4 temporarily?
'

005530 2109N 07203W 6974 02433 9199 +173 +084 023005 012 /// /// 03
005600 2110N 07201W 6977 02423 9195 +175 +081 144010 014 016 001 00
005630 2110N 07201W 6977 02423 9191 +180 +080 155021 025 022 001 00
005700 2111N 07158W 6961 02450 9198 +177 +082 160033 036 033 000 00
005730 2112N 07156W 6964 02456 9217 +168 +083 160043 046 042 001 00
005800 2113N 07155W 6964 02468 9230 +168 +077 162063 073 060 001 00
005830 2115N 07153W 6965 02494 9271 +154 +079 161090 098 071 003 03
005900 2116N 07152W 6963 02540 9350 +120 +080 159119 130 110 006 03
005930 2118N 07150W 6989 02578 9435 +106 +072 153138 140 116 027 00
010000 2119N 07149W 6962 02668 9494 +110 +064 151132 136 112 008 00
010030 2120N 07148W 6963 02713 9543 +110 +059 149128 129 102 002 00
010100 2122N 07146W 6966 02748 9576 +118 +054 148124 127 102 000 03
010130 2123N 07145W 6967 02780 9608 +124 +051 147120 122 103 000 00
010200 2124N 07144W 6964 02813 9644 +118 +053 146118 120 103 003 00

[Meteorcane]

Well Irma's max wind field as expected has broadened/decreased in intensity with this now almost complete EWRC, probably is a Cat.4 now (although there were Cat 5 winds when recon sampled the decaying inner eyewall on their first pass). That being said no reason to think (unless the circulation interacts significantly with Cuba) it can't maintain its intensity or deepen somewhat as it approaches Florida. This is assuming it can get it's new eyewall structure in-tact and not being in a constant half-completing EWRC (nothing to indicate that will be the case given the storm's history).

[Aric Dunn]

Possible downgrade to cat 4 temporarily?
'

005530 2109N 07203W 6974 02433 9199 +173 +084 023005 012 /// /// 03
005600 2110N 07201W 6977 02423 9195 +175 +081 144010 014 016 001 00
005630 2110N 07201W 6977 02423 9191 +180 +080 155021 025 022 001 00
005700 2111N 07158W 6961 02450 9198 +177 +082 160033 036 033 000 00
005730 2112N 07156W 6964 02456 9217 +168 +083 160043 046 042 001 00
005800 2113N 07155W 6964 02468 9230 +168 +077 162063 073 060 001 00
005830 2115N 07153W 6965 02494 9271 +154 +079 161090 098 071 003 03
005900 2116N 07152W 6963 02540 9350 +120 +080 159119 130 110 006 03
005930 2118N 07150W 6989 02578 9435 +106 +072 153138 140 116 027 00
010000 2119N 07149W 6962 02668 9494 +110 +064 151132 136 112 008 00
010030 2120N 07148W 6963 02713 9543 +110 +059 149128 129 102 002 00
010100 2122N 07146W 6966 02748 9576 +118 +054 148124 127 102 000 03
010130 2123N 07145W 6967 02780 9608 +124 +051 147120 122 103 000 00
010200 2124N 07144W 6964 02813 9644 +118 +053 146118 120 103 003 00

is possible. still has a few hours with recon out there before 11. we will see.

however the outer eyewall winds have increased quite a bit from the previous NW pass.

[RL3AO]

Official NWS Forecast for peak wind gusts.

(image deleted)

Can you post that map for the northern half of the state?

Don't take the numbers literally. Just as a first guess. They'll extend the track of strong winds northward as confidence increases. You can tell by the abrupt cutoff that the N FL offices haven't gone all in yet.

[ALhurricane]

Possible downgrade to cat 4 temporarily?
'

005530 2109N 07203W 6974 02433 9199 +173 +084 023005 012 /// /// 03
005600 2110N 07201W 6977 02423 9195 +175 +081 144010 014 016 001 00
005630 2110N 07201W 6977 02423 9191 +180 +080 155021 025 022 001 00
005700 2111N 07158W 6961 02450 9198 +177 +082 160033 036 033 000 00
005730 2112N 07156W 6964 02456 9217 +168 +083 160043 046 042 001 00
005800 2113N 07155W 6964 02468 9230 +168 +077 162063 073 060 001 00
005830 2115N 07153W 6965 02494 9271 +154 +079 161090 098 071 003 03
005900 2116N 07152W 6963 02540 9350 +120 +080 159119 130 110 006 03
005930 2118N 07150W 6989 02578 9435 +106 +072 153138 140 116 027 00
010000 2119N 07149W 6962 02668 9494 +110 +064 151132 136 112 008 00
010030 2120N 07148W 6963 02713 9543 +110 +059 149128 129 102 002 00
010100 2122N 07146W 6966 02748 9576 +118 +054 148124 127 102 000 03
010130 2123N 07145W 6967 02780 9608 +124 +051 147120 122 103 000 00
010200 2124N 07144W 6964 02813 9644 +118 +053 146118 120 103 003 00

No. Just a little while ago they found 139kt SFMR in NW quad. They make bring it down 5-10 kt but still Cat 5.

[drewschmaltz]

Another interesting portion of some of the long range models from several days ago - they saw Irma increase in size right around now. Just as it is completing an EWRC and expanding the wind field. It's not possible these inner dynamics were modeled......... is it?

[KBBOCA]

I think this will ramp up significantly just before landfall if the structure is there. My reasoning is the Barbado station showed a 3 or 4 degree drop in water temps from Irma. The gulf stream just off the tip of FL is warmer and will be replenishing the fuel source. Like I've said before, the atmospheric conditions that cause the turn north could also act as a strong outflow.

In fact, I think the record length that Irma has maintained this strength is due to it following a portion of the gulf stream.

I have a question as a resident of Orlando... If Irma landfalls as a Cat 5 w/ 185MPH winds and follows the forecast path, will Orlando see the same winds it saw with Charlie. For reference, the sustained winds in Orlando were 90 MPH.

I would think it very probable. The NWS graphical forecast for Sun night / early Mon a.m. for wind gusts looked pretty major.

[FLpanhandle91]

005900 2116N 07152W 6963 02540 9350 +120 +080 159119 130 110 006 03
005930 2118N 07150W 6989 02578 9435 +106 +072 153138 140 116 027 00
010000 2119N 07149W 6962 02668 9494 +110 +064 151132 136 112 008 00
010030 2120N 07148W 6963 02713 9543 +110 +059 149128 129 102 002 00
010100 2122N 07146W 6966 02748 9576 +118 +054 148124 127 102 000 03
010130 2123N 07145W 6967 02780 9608 +124 +051 147120 122 103 000 00
010200 2124N 07144W 6964 02813 9644 +118 +053 146118 120 103 003 00
010230 2125N 07143W 6967 02832 9664 +121 +054 145115 117 105 006 00
010300 2127N 07141W 6969 02845 9705 +101 +057 147109 114 105 010 00
010330 2128N 07140W 6977 02867 9755 +085 +056 144119 124 103 025 00
010400 2129N 07139W 6958 02905 9776 +084 +052 142122 123 093 019 00
010430 2130N 07137W 6963 02917 9798 +080 +048 142121 123 094 019 00
010500 2131N 07136W 6973 02926 9822 +079 +044 143123 124 091 019 00
010530 2133N 07135W 6966 02945 9836 +078 +041 145120 123 086 024 00
010600 2134N 07134W 6967 02956 9850 +079 +044 145118 122 083 025 00

Very obvious double wind maxima there. EWRC really underway

[hurricaneCW]

Probably a strong 4 borderline 5 right now, which is amazing considering how long it has held that intensity.

Definitely weakening right now though, if it were to restrengthen then we wouldn't see it until late tomorrow night into Saturday.

[meriland29]

It does look like she has weakened a bit, almost to cat 4 like status as per most recent recon pass.

[Jelff]

Below is Google + GIS map link that will always display a color satellite image for the *current day*. Each day this imagery is captured by one of the MODIS satellites. This image shows Irma and an outline for the states.

This images builds from east to west throughout each day as the satellite makes repeated passes. If the image is black when you look at it then that simply means the satellite has not covered Florida yet. There also is a delay of a few hours while the raw imagery is processed and then posted to the NASA GIS server. If you see a black background then pan the map towards Africa and Europe and you will see what part of the imagery is so far available for the current day.

Map link: https://bit.ly/2xQbCem

[meriland29]

Probably a strong 4 borderline 5 right now, which is amazing considering how long it has held that intensity.

Definitely weakening right now though, if it were to restrengthen then we wouldn't see it until late tomorrow night into Saturday.

Do you think she could tree restrengthen?

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080116
AF309 1811A IRMA HDOB 28 20170908
010630 2135N 07132W 6971 02961 9863 +075 +043 144117 119 093 017 00
010700 2136N 07131W 6965 02976 9874 +077 +029 149115 116 100 013 03
010730 2138N 07130W 6971 02981 9895 +071 +024 152114 115 095 011 03
010800 2139N 07128W 6953 03016 9902 +074 +033 149114 116 /// /// 03
010830 2140N 07127W 6965 03011 9911 +078 +035 150111 113 091 001 00
010900 2142N 07126W 6967 03018 9916 +084 +030 150105 109 080 010 00
010930 2143N 07124W 6967 03027 9926 +083 +029 151099 104 086 010 00
011000 2144N 07123W 6967 03037 9943 +076 +034 151099 099 091 012 00
011030 2146N 07122W 6979 03030 9954 +075 +034 148098 100 070 012 00
011100 2147N 07120W 6966 03056 9964 +076 +032 142089 098 068 012 00
011130 2148N 07119W 6964 03060 9973 +071 +028 141083 088 067 009 00
011200 2149N 07118W 6965 03063 9965 +081 +026 142084 084 066 009 00
011230 2151N 07116W 6970 03063 9963 +089 +026 141081 083 063 005 00
011300 2152N 07115W 6963 03077 9955 +100 +029 139077 080 063 003 00
011330 2153N 07114W 6966 03074 9964 +095 +026 140080 081 064 003 00
011400 2154N 07113W 6966 03080 9976 +089 +028 137080 082 060 004 00
011430 2155N 07111W 6963 03097 0010 +076 +029 139083 084 059 004 00
011500 2157N 07110W 6968 03085 0013 +066 +027 143079 085 060 008 00
011530 2158N 07109W 6967 03089 0018 +064 +020 141073 081 057 006 00
011600 2159N 07107W 6968 03089 0011 +074 +019 138079 082 054 005 00
$$
;

[drewschmaltz]

Official NWS Forecast for peak wind gusts.

(image deleted)

Can you post that map for the northern half of the state?

Don't take the numbers literally. Just as a first guess. They'll extend the track of strong winds northward as confidence increases. You can tell by the abrupt cutoff that the N FL offices haven't gone all in yet.

Is the brown color being 72MPH & 150MPH confusing anyone else?

[tolakram]

Not sure if you were talking to me, but I did not state any 'opinion'. I can attest for the fact that they were filling up people's gas tanks in I-45 Houston to Dallas - because my son was one that got filled up while he was en route to our house!

I got reprimanded on here for criticizing the knee jerk panic reaction on tuesday i thought it was too early hit the oh crap button. Just will say when they did that i knew every slack jawed yokel from Miami to Destin with an SUV, 12 gas jugs and an ATV would fill up and there would not be gas for evacuations and lots of people are going to have to ride out the storm Saturday unfortunately. Rationing should of been put into place on tuesday.

This is your opinion and is not fact so just can it.

Sorry, I was careless with my quotes, it was meant for season_cancel.

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/MattSitkowski/status/905942757159706624

[RL3AO]

Is the brown color being 72MPH & 150MPH confusing anyone else?

Of all of Maue's excellent color bars, this one probably isn't his best. He does like to wrap colors around.

[Aric Dunn]

wow that wind field has grown a lot.. look how far out the 100 + mph winds go !!

005800 2113N 07155W 6964 02468 9230 +168 +077 162063 073 060 001 00
005830 2115N 07153W 6965 02494 9271 +154 +079 161090 098 071 003 03
005900 2116N 07152W 6963 02540 9350 +120 +080 159119 130 110 006 03
005930 2118N 07150W 6989 02578 9435 +106 +072 153138 140 116 027 00
010000 2119N 07149W 6962 02668 9494 +110 +064 151132 136 112 008 00
010030 2120N 07148W 6963 02713 9543 +110 +059 149128 129 102 002 00
010100 2122N 07146W 6966 02748 9576 +118 +054 148124 127 102 000 03
010130 2123N 07145W 6967 02780 9608 +124 +051 147120 122 103 000 00
010200 2124N 07144W 6964 02813 9644 +118 +053 146118 120 103 003 00
010230 2125N 07143W 6967 02832 9664 +121 +054 145115 117 105 006 00
010300 2127N 07141W 6969 02845 9705 +101 +057 147109 114 105 010 00
010330 2128N 07140W 6977 02867 9755 +085 +056 144119 124 103 025 00
010400 2129N 07139W 6958 02905 9776 +084 +052 142122 123 093 019 00
010430 2130N 07137W 6963 02917 9798 +080 +048 142121 123 094 019 00
010500 2131N 07136W 6973 02926 9822 +079 +044 143123 124 091 019 00
010530 2133N 07135W 6966 02945 9836 +078 +041 145120 123 086 024 00
010600 2134N 07134W 6967 02956 9850 +079 +044 145118 122 083 025 00
010630 2135N 07132W 6971 02961 9863 +075 +043 144117 119 093 017 00
010700 2136N 07131W 6965 02976 9874 +077 +029 149115 116 100 013 03
010730 2138N 07130W 6971 02981 9895 +071 +024 152114 115 095 011 03
010800 2139N 07128W 6953 03016 9902 +074 +033 149114 116 /// /// 03
010830 2140N 07127W 6965 03011 9911 +078 +035 150111 113 091 001 00
010900 2142N 07126W 6967 03018 9916 +084 +030 150105 109 080 010 00
010930 2143N 07124W 6967 03027 9926 +083 +029 151099 104 086 010 00
011000 2144N 07123W 6967 03037 9943 +076 +034 151099 099 091 012 00
011030 2146N 07122W 6979 03030 9954 +075 +034 148098 100 070 012 00
011100 2147N 07120W 6966 03056 9964 +076 +032 142089 098 068 012 00
011130 2148N 07119W 6964 03060 9973 +071 +028 141083 088 067 009 00
011200 2149N 07118W 6965 03063 9965 +081 +026 142084 084 066 009 00