ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Yes even schools in the far now fla panhandle are closed friday and Monday. Going to use them for shelters and staging areas for supplies,

I think all Georgia and Alabama schools may need the same done, and perhaps even farther like Mississippi and Louisiana?

[JaxGator]

While high winds can be problematic - one of the main concerns to keep in mind is the accompanying tornadoes. With Harvey those were just popping all around. While they were lower ranked 0 or 1's -- the were VERY, very numerous. I really don't think the weather folks could even keep up with it. Was insanity. Get your largest closets prepared as shelters. Stock with things you may need while confined - and put within reach.

Here's the latest briefing from NWS Jax. They're expecting for Irma to be a Category 2 by the time it gets to Jacksonville and Northeast Florida per the latest forecast track. Winds of 100-110. Gusts to 120. Storm Surge would still be big concern on the beaches and the rivers. Georgia would have a strong Cat 1 with Cat 2 gusts. Can't believe that Irma could still bring some hefty damage here after what it could do to South Florida..

http://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefi ... iefing.pdf

Good point. There could be a good chance of tornadoes here, especially the day before the worst arrives with the outer bands expanding far from the center. I was surprised too how many tornadoes Harvey produced, I lost count during that outbreak.

[Aric Dunn]

so recon showing nearly 35 miles of 100 + mph winds.. thats alot..

[hurricaneCW]

Probably a strong 4 borderline 5 right now, which is amazing considering how long it has held that intensity.

Definitely weakening right now though, if it were to restrengthen then we wouldn't see it until late tomorrow night into Saturday.

Do you think she could tree restrengthen?

Looks like a true EWRC cycle and environmental conditions will remain ideal with increasing heat content so I don't see why not.

Land interaction would be her only deterrent to strengthening prior to landfall. Most models had her weakening and expanding around this time before rapidly restregthening right before hitting SF.

[AutoPenalti]

We left about 2.5 hours ago, note that I live in Margate.

It is now 9:25pm, and have only traveled 15 miles, escaping.

[jlauderdal]

Yes even schools in the far now fla panhandle are closed friday and Monday. Going to use them for shelters and staging areas for supplies,

I think all Georgia and Alabama schools may need the same done, and perhaps even farther like Mississippi and Louisiana?

Regardless of politics, rick scott has taken the bull by the horns and mobilised resources

[drewschmaltz]

I think this will ramp up significantly just before landfall if the structure is there. My reasoning is the Barbado station showed a 3 or 4 degree drop in water temps from Irma. The gulf stream just off the tip of FL is warmer and will be replenishing the fuel source. Like I've said before, the atmospheric conditions that cause the turn north could also act as a strong outflow.

In fact, I think the record length that Irma has maintained this strength is due to it following a portion of the gulf stream.

I have a question as a resident of Orlando... If Irma landfalls as a Cat 5 w/ 185MPH winds and follows the forecast path, will Orlando see the same winds it saw with Charlie. For reference, the sustained winds in Orlando were 90 MPH.

I'd like to add another question (and shameless bump this since I didn't get a response)... Are all the maps derivatives of the current forecast?

[northjaxpro]

Yeah with the subtle shifts to the west throughout the day it ensures that Irma will likely track right over the Jacksonville area from moving up from.South Florida. This is the rst case scenario I always feared the most. No doubt we're going to get muchmore severe impacts from Irma than we did from Matthew. Matthew stayed offshore by about thirty miles or so and the core of that storm stayed off shore. This time, Irma is forecast to go right over us. The storm still is forecast to be at category 2 strength when it comes through Sunday - through Monday night.The area you pointed out will getleast 100 mile-an-hour wind gusts or higher in some spots across the area
A very dangerous situation on all levels is confronting us.

I'm worried about treesand power lines falling around my home, among other things. All we can do is pray for the best somehow through this storm and just prepare and just hunker down and when the time comes on Monday and Tuesday pick up the pieces!! We will persevere and remain strong!!

Be safe !!! My prayers to you and everyone in the path of dangerous Irma.

[RL3AO]

Regardless of politics, rick scott has taken the bull by the horns and mobilised resources

The response from the Florida government so far has been top notch. Once the threat ramped up today, they moved all-in.

[SunnyThoughts]

Yes even schools in the far now fla panhandle are closed friday and Monday. Going to use them for shelters and staging areas for supplies,

I think all Georgia and Alabama schools may need the same done, and perhaps even farther like Mississippi and Louisiana?

Regardless of politics, rick scott has taken the bull by the horns and mobilised resources

He certainly has.

[KBBOCA]

Florida officials seem to be going above & beyond to try and get people to safety.

 https://twitter.com/FLGovScott/status/905791249524903937




The remarkable forecast accuracy & consistency has probably helped greatly. They got quite a big jump on this. I hope and pray that those who are trapped somewhere unsafe reach out and get help!

[DESTRUCTION5]

We left about 2.5 hours ago, note that I live in Margate.

It is now 9:25pm, and have only traveled 15 miles, escaping.

Ouch...that must be a happy carpool....NOT.

[FLpanhandle91]

Hurricane force winds 72 miles out from center according to raw data file.

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 1:26Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 18
Observation Number: 09 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 0:55:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°09'N 72°03'W (21.15N 72.05W)
B. Center Fix Location: 63 statute miles (101 km) to the WSW (249°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,395m (7,858ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 97kts (~ 111.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the SW (220°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 306° at 107kts (From the NW at ~ 123.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SW (222°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 921mb (27.20 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,056m (10,026ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,027m (9,931ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 300° to 120° (WNW to ESE)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 146kts (~ 168.0mph) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NNE (25°) from the flight level center at 23:38:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 140kts (~ 161.1mph) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) from the flight level center at 0:59:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 215° at 7kts (From the

[Sciencerocks]

The Ewrc will likely take another 12-18 hours to complete, but afterwards if it is successful this storm may once again strengthen. I'll guess that it won't have another ewrc before landfall "if" this one is successful so chances of a strengthening hurricane is likely.

[GCANE]

[Aric Dunn]

Hurricane force winds 72 miles out from center according to raw data file.

that one thing.. 100+ mph winds are nearly 35 miles and major huricane are 25 miles.. thats a pretty crazy large inner core..

[KBBOCA]

I think this will ramp up significantly just before landfall if the structure is there. My reasoning is the Barbado station showed a 3 or 4 degree drop in water temps from Irma. The gulf stream just off the tip of FL is warmer and will be replenishing the fuel source. Like I've said before, the atmospheric conditions that cause the turn north could also act as a strong outflow.

In fact, I think the record length that Irma has maintained this strength is due to it following a portion of the gulf stream.

I have a question as a resident of Orlando... If Irma landfalls as a Cat 5 w/ 185MPH winds and follows the forecast path, will Orlando see the same winds it saw with Charlie. For reference, the sustained winds in Orlando were 90 MPH.

I'd like to add another question (and shameless bump this since I didn't get a response)... Are all the maps derivatives of the current forecast?

Usually there's a timestamp somewhere in the bottom or top corner - certainly of any official NWS or NHC graphics...

[Sciencerocks]

URNT15 KNHC 080126
AF309 1811A IRMA HDOB 29 20170908
011630 2200N 07106W 6963 03101 0004 +081 +019 135082 083 054 003 00
011700 2202N 07105W 6966 03099 0009 +081 +019 133082 083 054 003 00
011730 2203N 07104W 6966 03104 0018 +078 +015 133083 083 053 004 00
011800 2204N 07102W 6963 03108 0021 +077 +017 134083 083 055 005 00
011830 2205N 07101W 6966 03110 0034 +072 +019 135082 083 054 006 00
011900 2206N 07100W 6966 03114 0033 +076 +018 135078 082 053 007 00
011930 2208N 07059W 6963 03122 0023 +088 +018 135079 079 051 003 00
012000 2209N 07057W 6967 03119 0024 +090 +020 134079 079 049 003 00
012030 2210N 07056W 6966 03123 0030 +085 +018 135077 078 048 003 03
012100 2211N 07055W 6966 03127 0037 +080 +018 135077 077 047 004 00
012130 2212N 07053W 6965 03130 0046 +077 +018 134074 076 048 005 00
012200 2214N 07052W 6966 03133 0064 +066 +017 132072 073 049 005 00
012230 2215N 07051W 6966 03134 0060 +072 +011 128072 074 049 005 00
012300 2216N 07050W 6966 03136 0045 +086 +009 127074 074 047 002 00
012330 2217N 07049W 6965 03140 0044 +090 +010 127074 074 046 002 00
012400 2217N 07049W 6965 03140 0047 +090 +009 127073 074 047 001 00
012430 2219N 07046W 6967 03140 0049 +090 +005 127074 074 046 001 00
012500 2221N 07045W 6967 03142 0047 +093 -004 127077 078 044 001 00
012530 2222N 07044W 6963 03147 0048 +094 -010 128079 081 043 001 00
012600 2223N 07043W 6967 03146 0048 +096 -013 129080 081 043 001 00
$$
;

[GCANE]