ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jasons2k]

The southern portion of Irma will pass over very high mountains before it turns right into southern Florida.

The highest mountain ranges in Cuba are confined to the SE Tip, near Guantanamo. The rest of Cuba is relatively flat. There is a smaller range in central Cuba, but mostly along the southern coast, and it's not very high.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080146
AF309 1811A IRMA HDOB 31 20170908
013630 2229N 07118W 6965 03128 0025 +095 -017 116081 082 050 003 00
013700 2229N 07121W 6965 03127 0022 +096 -016 115082 082 051 003 00
013730 2229N 07123W 6966 03124 0025 +092 +001 114083 083 051 004 00
013800 2229N 07126W 6966 03123 0033 +083 +007 113082 083 053 007 03
013830 2229N 07128W 6964 03122 0046 +070 +010 110083 084 053 007 00
013900 2229N 07131W 6965 03118 0048 +066 +013 108085 086 052 010 03
013930 2229N 07134W 6967 03113 0044 +067 +014 107084 085 053 009 00
014000 2230N 07136W 6966 03113 0045 +065 +015 106083 084 052 009 00
014030 2230N 07139W 6966 03111 0036 +071 +015 104083 084 051 009 03
014100 2230N 07142W 6966 03111 0031 +074 +014 102084 084 050 009 00
014130 2230N 07144W 6963 03113 0014 +085 +015 102082 083 052 006 00
014200 2230N 07147W 6968 03106 0014 +085 +016 104085 085 052 005 00
014230 2230N 07150W 6966 03105 0018 +080 +014 101086 088 052 006 00
014300 2230N 07152W 6967 03105 0015 +080 +014 099088 089 053 006 00
014330 2230N 07155W 6966 03104 0009 +085 +014 098088 089 054 005 00
014400 2230N 07158W 6964 03106 0005 +089 +009 095090 091 055 003 00
014430 2230N 07201W 6967 03101 0004 +089 +007 094090 091 055 004 00
014500 2230N 07203W 6963 03105 0000 +090 -003 091092 092 056 003 00
014530 2230N 07206W 6963 03105 0004 +090 -005 090092 092 055 003 00
014600 2230N 07209W 6967 03099 0003 +089 -003 089092 093 053 005 00
$$

[otowntiger]

I think this will ramp up significantly just before landfall if the structure is there. My reasoning is the Barbado station showed a 3 or 4 degree drop in water temps from Irma. The gulf stream just off the tip of FL is warmer and will be replenishing the fuel source. Like I've said before, the atmospheric conditions that cause the turn north could also act as a strong outflow.

In fact, I think the record length that Irma has maintained this strength is due to it following a portion of the gulf stream.

I have a question as a resident of Orlando... If Irma landfalls as a Cat 5 w/ 185MPH winds and follows the forecast path, will Orlando see the same winds it saw with Charlie. For reference, the sustained winds in Orlando were 90 MPH.

I'd like to add another question (and shameless bump this since I didn't get a response)... Are all the maps derivatives of the current forecast?

It will very similar except the intense winds will cover a much wider area and for a much longer time. We saw 105 gust at oia during Charley-and hurricane conditions for about 40 miniutes- and as you remember he wrecked Orlando. The NOAA website is forecasting hurricane conditions to last between 9 pm Sunday to about 4am Monday with gusts up to 110. That will do a lot more damage than Charley. With that wide a swath and considering the catastrophe that will be happening south of us we likely wie'll be without power much longer too as resources will be stretched.

[Raebie]

Governor Scott canceled all Florida schools tomorrow and Monday!!!

Well yeah. Since the entire state is prepping or leaving, that makes sense.

[TJRE]

SST guidance

https://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_dat ... 26.n18.jpg

https://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_dat ... nothumbs=0

some very warm pockets in her path....

[fsusurfer]

Florida officials seem to be going above & beyond to try and get people to safety.

 https://twitter.com/FLGovScott/status/905791249524903937




The remarkable forecast accuracy & consistency has probably helped greatly. They got quite a big jump on this. I hope and pray that those who are trapped somewhere unsafe reach out and get help!

My father works in local government. I can tell you right now the state is freaking out. The state doesn't have the resources to deal with this type of situation if it unfolds as it is currently predicted. The feds will have to be brought in and that is a 'whole nother ball game' and takes longer to mobilize. This is really a worse case scenario for the state that is impossible to be prepared for.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080156
AF309 1811A IRMA HDOB 32 20170908
014630 2230N 07212W 6969 03098 0026 +070 +003 090094 098 051 008 00
014700 2230N 07214W 6961 03106 0022 +071 +023 089096 099 055 009 03
014730 2230N 07217W 6967 03099 0014 +080 +010 086091 093 056 008 00
014800 2230N 07220W 6966 03102 0011 +082 +009 085090 092 054 007 03
014830 2230N 07223W 6966 03102 0010 +085 +002 083089 090 054 007 03
014900 2230N 07225W 6967 03100 0004 +088 +004 083092 093 052 007 00
014930 2230N 07228W 6963 03106 0007 +086 -001 084094 095 049 007 00
015000 2230N 07231W 6971 03096 0012 +082 +009 084093 094 048 012 00
015030 2230N 07234W 6959 03113 0023 +072 +029 081085 092 052 017 03
015100 2230N 07236W 6958 03115 0026 +070 +031 074090 093 050 023 03
015130 2230N 07239W 6966 03108 0023 +077 +024 077089 090 050 008 03
015200 2230N 07242W 6961 03116 0012 +088 +015 078087 089 053 005 00
015230 2230N 07244W 6971 03105 0013 +089 +009 078086 087 053 006 00
015300 2230N 07247W 6961 03118 0010 +092 +007 077081 084 051 007 00
015330 2230N 07250W 6968 03110 0020 +085 +005 074080 081 052 005 00
015400 2230N 07252W 6967 03113 0023 +084 +001 074079 081 051 006 00
015430 2230N 07255W 6965 03117 0029 +080 +004 073080 081 051 006 00
015500 2230N 07258W 6968 03118 0031 +081 +016 073077 079 050 007 00
015530 2230N 07300W 6963 03121 0037 +075 +022 072078 079 051 008 03
015600 2230N 07303W 6963 03127 0032 +081 +019 070081 082 051 007 03
$$
;

[Nederlander]

Cloud tops seem to be cooling. Is this due to expansion of wind field, Dmin, or ERC?

[KBBOCA]

Turks & Caicos... terrible

 https://twitter.com/BillKarins/status/905968079880015872

[NDG]

[KBBOCA]

IMPORTANT!!!

Storm surge map for Miami-Dade

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/905966016924090368




https://t.co/LMGeKdgHkW

[smithtim]

I think this will ramp up significantly just before landfall if the structure is there. My reasoning is the Barbado station showed a 3 or 4 degree drop in water temps from Irma. The gulf stream just off the tip of FL is warmer and will be replenishing the fuel source. Like I've said before, the atmospheric conditions that cause the turn north could also act as a strong outflow.

In fact, I think the record length that Irma has maintained this strength is due to it following a portion of the gulf stream.

I have a question as a resident of Orlando... If Irma landfalls as a Cat 5 w/ 185MPH winds and follows the forecast path, will Orlando see the same winds it saw with Charlie. For reference, the sustained winds in Orlando were 90 MPH.

I'm not quite sure you experienced 90 mph with charley in Orlando... probably more like 75 or high end tropical storm! If I recall the max dead center reading on the s side of town was 80!

For Irma if y'all get the dirty side it'll probably be 110ish, so just hope you only get the backside...

[invest man]

Does it appear it is slowing some or is it my eyes? IM

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080206
AF309 1811A IRMA HDOB 33 20170908
015630 2230N 07305W 6965 03123 0020 +093 +006 070080 081 050 005 00
015700 2230N 07308W 6968 03122 0032 +083 +021 066078 079 050 003 00
015730 2230N 07311W 6967 03124 0019 +097 +009 069078 079 048 005 00
015800 2230N 07313W 6969 03123 0017 +100 +000 067077 077 046 003 00
015830 2230N 07316W 6967 03129 0018 +102 -002 066077 077 045 003 00
015900 2230N 07318W 6967 03132 0021 +103 -003 062074 076 046 002 00
015930 2230N 07321W 6965 03138 0026 +102 -004 059071 073 046 001 00
020000 2230N 07323W 6966 03139 0040 +094 +002 059070 072 044 001 00
020030 2230N 07325W 6962 03146 0044 +093 -001 058067 068 045 001 00
020100 2230N 07328W 6967 03143 0041 +097 -005 058068 070 043 001 00
020130 2230N 07330W 6963 03147 0039 +101 -014 058071 072 042 002 00
020200 2230N 07333W 6967 03147 0042 +103 -019 057072 075 042 002 00
020230 2230N 07335W 6965 03150 0052 +095 -027 057074 075 039 002 03
020300 2228N 07336W 6967 03146 0054 +092 -026 057073 074 /// /// 03
020330 2227N 07335W 6965 03149 0046 +096 -014 057067 071 041 001 00
020400 2226N 07334W 6968 03141 0044 +096 -016 056066 067 041 001 00
020430 2224N 07333W 6967 03139 0037 +100 -018 055063 065 041 002 00
020500 2223N 07331W 6965 03140 0037 +097 -007 055065 067 042 001 03
020530 2222N 07330W 6964 03140 0033 +096 +001 053066 067 044 001 00
020600 2221N 07329W 6966 03133 0028 +097 +012 052064 065 043 002 03
$$

[KBBOCA]

more about Irma's expanding windfield

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/905964129751531521

[tolakram]

SLIDER nighttime as seen in a previous post.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=7142&y=6170&z=2&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=16&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Blown Away]

Looking at a little climatology. I could not find 1 storm that moved W above the big islands and made a NW turn @23N/79W and then moved in a general NNW motion all the way a to above 36N... There were a few that moved up from the Caribbean and moved NNW up the state... Seems Irma may follow a unique track... There were a couple that continued on a WNW movement to SE GOM then recurved, like Donna...

[galaxy401]

If the outer eyewall is as strong as the inner, does that mean the EWRC is almost finished?

[eastcoastFL]

My little cousin was activated by the national guard. She's in a helicopter unit forward deployed now in Tampa for rescue operations across South Florida after the storm. So that makes me feel a little better.

[WxEnthus]

Obviously, this isn't the most pressing issue in the immediate term, but Irma could end up also being a serious flooding threat in the Appalachians and surrounding foothills, especially in the southern part of the range.

Hugo caused massive flooding, power outages, downed trees, and property damage in the mountains and surrounding areas. Even as far inland as southwest Virginia, Hugo still packed a wallop and schools were closed for weeks due to flooding and wind damage.

Some of the long-training thunderstorms the Blue Ridge mountains get (by way of the GOM) dump rain on the area for days at a time. Those systems seem to want to stall and spin, and the mountains just ring the moisture out.