ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
If the inner eyewall can fade away and the outer can start "tightening" it wouldn't surprise me to see this thing powering back up instead of weakening.
I'll take a guess that strengthening after a slight weakening the next 12 hours is favored.
I'll take a guess that strengthening after a slight weakening the next 12 hours is favored.
Last edited by Sciencerocks on Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
glad to see that they think the winds will still come down. But I have a question. Many models show the storm deepening upon landfall. I know the pressure can drop while winds dont necessarily catch up because its big. is that what they are banking on? I know they are the experts but it seems interesting to forecast a 4 at landfall, given the hurricane gasoline known as the florida straight still ahead of her, and the history of florida storms that deepened upon landfall, why would they not just say it'll be a 5 at landfall.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
Raebie wrote:meriland29 wrote:As per nhc
"
If Irma has developed concentric eyewalls, then some additional
gradual weakening or fluctuations in intensity are possible over
the next day or two, despite a seemingly favorable atmospheric and
oceanic environment. The intensity models depict a very gradual
decrease in Irma's maximum winds up until a possible landfall in
Florida, but the hurricane is nonetheless expected to still be at
or near category 4 strength at that time. After landfall, a fairly
quick decay in maximum winds is expected due to land interaction
and increased shear, although Irma's large wind field is likely to
still produce hurricane-force winds over a large area."
That seems rather ...comforting.
Keyword "if"
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
The polar outflow channel this is forecast to tap into... along with high SST and TCHP water and low shear are likely why all the models ramp this up so much prior to landfall. I’ve seen storms tap into those outflow channels and do some crazy things.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
So looks like Charleston, SC is out of the cone now. Should I still be on edge, and wait for the 5am to relax?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
Tell that to the thousands of frustrated motorists who might interpret it thay way and turn around.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
txwatcher91 wrote:The polar outflow channel this is forecast to tap into... along with high SST and TCHP water and low shear are likely why all the models ramp this up so much prior to landfall. I’ve seen storms tap into those outflow channels and do some crazy things.
Yep, once this ewrc is complete I'd expect it to strengthen..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
kf154 wrote:So looks like Charleston, SC is out of the cone now. Should I still be on edge, and wait for the 5am to relax?
I'm popping a bloody bottle of champagne. Lol.
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- jasons2k
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
NOW the NHC has it going right up the spine of Florida. Perhaps Savannah and the Low Country get saved, but no better for SE FL.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
In Destin... I'm wondering if I am going to have to wake up in the morning and board up with the way this thing keeps leaning more and more west.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
fsusurfer wrote:In Destin... I'm wondering if I am going to have to wake up in the morning and board up with the way this thing keeps leaning more and more west.
No doubt, that cone sure moved west at the northern most points.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
Sciencerocks wrote:txwatcher91 wrote:The polar outflow channel this is forecast to tap into... along with high SST and TCHP water and low shear are likely why all the models ramp this up so much prior to landfall. I’ve seen storms tap into those outflow channels and do some crazy things.
Yep, once this ewrc is complete I'd expect it to strengthen..
It appears that NHC in their wisdom is not convinced of that. I am not sure if why they call for weakening, unless they just dont think it can stay a cat 5 for so many days.
Last edited by PTPatrick on Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- AdamFirst
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
NWS Melbourne has yet to update their page to reflect the new Hurricane Watches...probably busy issuing them for all the inland counties they cover too.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
jasons wrote:NOW the NHC has it going right up the spine of Florida. Perhaps Savannah and the Low Country get saved, but no better for SE FL.
that lieterally puts an eyewall on each coast...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
fsusurfer wrote:In Destin... I'm wondering if I am going to have to wake up in the morning and board up with the way this thing keeps leaning more and more west.
the chance remains quite remote that this is coming to Destin. This will make the northward turn. Every model and even the ensemble probabilities all but guarantee it
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
PTPatrick wrote:Sciencerocks wrote:txwatcher91 wrote:The polar outflow channel this is forecast to tap into... along with high SST and TCHP water and low shear are likely why all the models ramp this up so much prior to landfall. I’ve seen storms tap into those outflow channels and do some crazy things.
Yep, once this ewrc is complete I'd expect it to strengthen..
It appears that NHC in their wisdom is not convinced of that. I am not sure if why they call for weakening, unless they just dont think it can stay a cat 5 for so many days.
Intensity forecasting is very difficult to do. The NHC never thought this would be a cat 5 for 36+ hours like it has been. No one did really. My point is the environment has everything primed and if this EWRC completes successfully tomorrow morning and the eye contracts then there isn’t much to hold it back except land interaction.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
I was getting spammed 4 times about the Hurricane warnings now being issued. Moving at a decent clip now, around 35-45mph on average. We're south of Lantana.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
PTPatrick wrote:Sciencerocks wrote:txwatcher91 wrote:The polar outflow channel this is forecast to tap into... along with high SST and TCHP water and low shear are likely why all the models ramp this up so much prior to landfall. I’ve seen storms tap into those outflow channels and do some crazy things.
Yep, once this ewrc is complete I'd expect it to strengthen..
It appears that NHC in their wisdom is not convinced of that. I am not sure if why they call for weakening, unless they just dont think it can stay a cat 5 for so many days.
They have it as a 155 mph hurricane at landfall. Cat 5 is 156 mph. Does it really matter?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
Well, pick your poison.
A Cat 5 185 mph Hurricane with a 25 mile wide eye and a 10 mile wide eyewall with 185 mile winds and then Cat 1/TS winds outside that or a Cat 4 155 MPH hurricane with a 45 mile wide eye and a 30 mile wide eyewall with 155 mph winds and another 40 miles of Cat 1/2/3/4.
The pressure is the same or dropping and the weakening isn't really weakening. It's more like the strong winds are broadening away from the center so more people can feel the pain.
The whole entire bottom half of Florida coast to coast could conceivably get at least Cat 2/Cat 3 winds if this hits the spine in the right spot.
A Cat 5 185 mph Hurricane with a 25 mile wide eye and a 10 mile wide eyewall with 185 mile winds and then Cat 1/TS winds outside that or a Cat 4 155 MPH hurricane with a 45 mile wide eye and a 30 mile wide eyewall with 155 mph winds and another 40 miles of Cat 1/2/3/4.
The pressure is the same or dropping and the weakening isn't really weakening. It's more like the strong winds are broadening away from the center so more people can feel the pain.
The whole entire bottom half of Florida coast to coast could conceivably get at least Cat 2/Cat 3 winds if this hits the spine in the right spot.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
Alyono wrote:fsusurfer wrote:In Destin... I'm wondering if I am going to have to wake up in the morning and board up with the way this thing keeps leaning more and more west.
the chance remains quite remote that this is coming to Destin. This will make the northward turn. Every model and even the ensemble probabilities all but guarantee it
I think its such a weird new cone after initial landfall. I live in Mobile and all of Alabama appears in it but Mobile/Gulf Shores. No disputing it appears to initially hit FL first but on new NW trajectory, I think he means (And I am asking) once it is moving inland cam it make the inland west turn at a lower latitude?
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