ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9156
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7381 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:12 pm

If the inner eyewall can fade away and the outer can start "tightening" it wouldn't surprise me to see this thing powering back up instead of weakening.

I'll take a guess that strengthening after a slight weakening the next 12 hours is favored.
Last edited by Sciencerocks on Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
PTPatrick
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1831
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:38 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7382 Postby PTPatrick » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:12 pm

glad to see that they think the winds will still come down. But I have a question. Many models show the storm deepening upon landfall. I know the pressure can drop while winds dont necessarily catch up because its big. is that what they are banking on? I know they are the experts but it seems interesting to forecast a 4 at landfall, given the hurricane gasoline known as the florida straight still ahead of her, and the history of florida storms that deepened upon landfall, why would they not just say it'll be a 5 at landfall.
1 likes   

norva
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 44
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2017 10:41 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7383 Postby norva » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:13 pm

Raebie wrote:
meriland29 wrote:As per nhc

"
If Irma has developed concentric eyewalls, then some additional
gradual weakening or fluctuations in intensity are possible over
the next day or two, despite a seemingly favorable atmospheric and
oceanic environment
. The intensity models depict a very gradual
decrease in Irma's maximum winds up until a possible landfall in
Florida, but the hurricane is nonetheless expected to still be at
or near category 4 strength at that time. After landfall, a fairly
quick decay in maximum winds is expected due to land interaction
and increased shear, although Irma's large wind field is likely to
still produce hurricane-force winds over a large area."


That seems rather ...comforting.


Keyword "if"
0 likes   

txwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1498
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:29 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7384 Postby txwatcher91 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:13 pm

The polar outflow channel this is forecast to tap into... along with high SST and TCHP water and low shear are likely why all the models ramp this up so much prior to landfall. I’ve seen storms tap into those outflow channels and do some crazy things.
2 likes   

kf154
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 9
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 6:20 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7385 Postby kf154 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:14 pm

So looks like Charleston, SC is out of the cone now. Should I still be on edge, and wait for the 5am to relax?
1 likes   

Raebie
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 822
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 8:00 pm
Location: Charlotte, NC

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7386 Postby Raebie » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:14 pm

Tell that to the thousands of frustrated motorists who might interpret it thay way and turn around.
0 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9156
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7387 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:16 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:The polar outflow channel this is forecast to tap into... along with high SST and TCHP water and low shear are likely why all the models ramp this up so much prior to landfall. I’ve seen storms tap into those outflow channels and do some crazy things.



Yep, once this ewrc is complete I'd expect it to strengthen..
1 likes   

Raebie
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 822
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 8:00 pm
Location: Charlotte, NC

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7388 Postby Raebie » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:16 pm

kf154 wrote:So looks like Charleston, SC is out of the cone now. Should I still be on edge, and wait for the 5am to relax?


I'm popping a bloody bottle of champagne. Lol.
0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7389 Postby jasons2k » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:16 pm

NOW the NHC has it going right up the spine of Florida. Perhaps Savannah and the Low Country get saved, but no better for SE FL.
5 likes   

fsusurfer
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 29
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:55 pm
Location: Destin, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7390 Postby fsusurfer » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:17 pm

In Destin... I'm wondering if I am going to have to wake up in the morning and board up with the way this thing keeps leaning more and more west.
1 likes   

SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7391 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:18 pm

fsusurfer wrote:In Destin... I'm wondering if I am going to have to wake up in the morning and board up with the way this thing keeps leaning more and more west.


No doubt, that cone sure moved west at the northern most points.
3 likes   

User avatar
PTPatrick
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1831
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:38 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7392 Postby PTPatrick » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:19 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:The polar outflow channel this is forecast to tap into... along with high SST and TCHP water and low shear are likely why all the models ramp this up so much prior to landfall. I’ve seen storms tap into those outflow channels and do some crazy things.



Yep, once this ewrc is complete I'd expect it to strengthen..



It appears that NHC in their wisdom is not convinced of that. I am not sure if why they call for weakening, unless they just dont think it can stay a cat 5 for so many days.
Last edited by PTPatrick on Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7393 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:19 pm

NWS Melbourne has yet to update their page to reflect the new Hurricane Watches...probably busy issuing them for all the inland counties they cover too.
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7394 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:20 pm

jasons wrote:NOW the NHC has it going right up the spine of Florida. Perhaps Savannah and the Low Country get saved, but no better for SE FL.

that lieterally puts an eyewall on each coast...
4 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7395 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:22 pm

fsusurfer wrote:In Destin... I'm wondering if I am going to have to wake up in the morning and board up with the way this thing keeps leaning more and more west.


the chance remains quite remote that this is coming to Destin. This will make the northward turn. Every model and even the ensemble probabilities all but guarantee it
3 likes   

txwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1498
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:29 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7396 Postby txwatcher91 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:22 pm

PTPatrick wrote:
Sciencerocks wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:The polar outflow channel this is forecast to tap into... along with high SST and TCHP water and low shear are likely why all the models ramp this up so much prior to landfall. I’ve seen storms tap into those outflow channels and do some crazy things.



Yep, once this ewrc is complete I'd expect it to strengthen..



It appears that NHC in their wisdom is not convinced of that. I am not sure if why they call for weakening, unless they just dont think it can stay a cat 5 for so many days.


Intensity forecasting is very difficult to do. The NHC never thought this would be a cat 5 for 36+ hours like it has been. No one did really. My point is the environment has everything primed and if this EWRC completes successfully tomorrow morning and the eye contracts then there isn’t much to hold it back except land interaction.
1 likes   

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7397 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:24 pm

I was getting spammed 4 times about the Hurricane warnings now being issued. Moving at a decent clip now, around 35-45mph on average. We're south of Lantana.
2 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7398 Postby RL3AO » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:24 pm

PTPatrick wrote:
Sciencerocks wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:The polar outflow channel this is forecast to tap into... along with high SST and TCHP water and low shear are likely why all the models ramp this up so much prior to landfall. I’ve seen storms tap into those outflow channels and do some crazy things.



Yep, once this ewrc is complete I'd expect it to strengthen..



It appears that NHC in their wisdom is not convinced of that. I am not sure if why they call for weakening, unless they just dont think it can stay a cat 5 for so many days.


They have it as a 155 mph hurricane at landfall. Cat 5 is 156 mph. Does it really matter?
4 likes   

PandaCitrus
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 424
Joined: Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:44 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7399 Postby PandaCitrus » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:24 pm

Well, pick your poison.

A Cat 5 185 mph Hurricane with a 25 mile wide eye and a 10 mile wide eyewall with 185 mile winds and then Cat 1/TS winds outside that or a Cat 4 155 MPH hurricane with a 45 mile wide eye and a 30 mile wide eyewall with 155 mph winds and another 40 miles of Cat 1/2/3/4.

The pressure is the same or dropping and the weakening isn't really weakening. It's more like the strong winds are broadening away from the center so more people can feel the pain.

The whole entire bottom half of Florida coast to coast could conceivably get at least Cat 2/Cat 3 winds if this hits the spine in the right spot.
3 likes   

User avatar
Bamagirl2408
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 80
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2016 11:19 pm
Location: Mobile AL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7400 Postby Bamagirl2408 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:26 pm

Alyono wrote:
fsusurfer wrote:In Destin... I'm wondering if I am going to have to wake up in the morning and board up with the way this thing keeps leaning more and more west.


the chance remains quite remote that this is coming to Destin. This will make the northward turn. Every model and even the ensemble probabilities all but guarantee it


I think its such a weird new cone after initial landfall. I live in Mobile and all of Alabama appears in it but Mobile/Gulf Shores. No disputing it appears to initially hit FL first but on new NW trajectory, I think he means (And I am asking) once it is moving inland cam it make the inland west turn at a lower latitude?
1 likes   


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests