ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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PTPatrick
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7401 Postby PTPatrick » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:26 pm

So for the area experts...what does 7-10 feet of surge do in Miami? their text says 7-10 feet...but the maps dont look particularly impressive for such a large surge, particularly when you get north of Kendall. just looks like 1-3 on their map.

also, 1926 great miami cane apparently brought 10-15 for the area and was a cat 4...so like if this is optimal approach for surge(1926 was more west to east) why are they forecasting lower? just curious of what the material effects of this surge will be in around the miami downtown area and all that expensive real estate in the area.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7402 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:26 pm

85-100 mph winds with higher gusts is now the forecast for the Orlando area for Sunday night.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7403 Postby bonjourno » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:26 pm

We've ended up with Key West and Pensacola being the two areas of Florida outside the cone, now. Go figure...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7404 Postby HDGator » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:28 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
jasons wrote:NOW the NHC has it going right up the spine of Florida. Perhaps Savannah and the Low Country get saved, but no better for SE FL.

that lieterally puts an eyewall on each coast...


I have a heavy heart for those in the path of this monster storm. I have never been this concerned about the level of a catastrophic event we are about to see since Harvey / Katrina / Andrew. As Aric is highlighting, we have simultaneous hurricane conditions covering the length and breadth of the Florida peninsula. I am farther up the east coast from potential landfall but I am concerned for my neighbors, friends, and family. We are prepared, ready and able to take care of ourselves through this event but I fear we are the exception in the path of this storm. Please pray for those in the path of this storm. They need it.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7405 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:28 pm

I think maybe Irma took an inflow hit from Hispaniola...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7406 Postby PTPatrick » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:29 pm

RL3AO wrote:
PTPatrick wrote:
Sciencerocks wrote:

Yep, once this ewrc is complete I'd expect it to strengthen..



It appears that NHC in their wisdom is not convinced of that. I am not sure if why they call for weakening, unless they just dont think it can stay a cat 5 for so many days.


They have it as a 155 mph hurricane at landfall. Cat 5 is 156 mph. Does it really matter?


I dont think it does matter. didnt mean to emply that it did. I am just more interested in what their thought process was since so much is saying it could reasonably strengthen before landfall.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7407 Postby kthmcc7319 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:29 pm

fsusurfer wrote:In Destin... I'm wondering if I am going to have to wake up in the morning and board up with the way this thing keeps leaning more and more west.


Choctaw Beach here - I sense my wife is ready to pull the trigger and boogie on out of here. She's not trusting the timing or the angle of projected "turn north." We felt uneasy on Tuesday, fairly comfortable yesterday, back to uneasy this evening. these westward shifts are cause for concern
Last edited by kthmcc7319 on Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7408 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:30 pm

Sanibel wrote:I think maybe Irma took an inflow hit from Hispaniola...


Don't think so, I really think it's part of the EWRC.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7409 Postby bonjourno » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:31 pm

I'm in DeLand. My GTFO option was Ocala. I'm thinking I'll stay put, since it looks like it might only be marginally better in Ocala. Is that generally correct?

If I stay here, I'll be on the 2nd floor in a brick building that's been here since the 20s...
Last edited by bonjourno on Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7410 Postby RL3AO » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:31 pm

PTPatrick wrote:So for the area experts...what does 7-10 feet of surge do in Miami? their text says 7-10 feet...but the maps dont look particularly impressive for such a large surge, particularly when you get north of Kendall. just looks like 1-3 on their map.


The surge models make tracks off the NHC error cone and run it over and over again. Since we're still 3 days away, many of the surge model runs are using tracks east of Miami or west of Florida west coast. Neither of those would produce much surge in SE FL. The values on that map will increase tomorrow. The 7-10 feet is directly from the storm surge experts at NHC.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7411 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:32 pm

I'm growing sick to my stomach that with each advisory, the center of the cone remains right over my hometown. I know with each passing advisory it stays there, the odds of a catastrophic event increases. While there is still potential for the track to change, it's looking increasingly unlikely. For some reason, if you are reading this message board and live in South Florida and still don't think this is a big deal, I beg of you to reconsider. This storm is unlike any other to approach FL in the past 50 years. Just because you were fine with Hurricane Andrew doesn't mean you will be fine with this storm. If you are in a mandatory evacuation zone, please at least move to a local shelter. Nothing is more valuable than your life.

Praying for all those in the path of the storm tonight.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7412 Postby Zarniwoop » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:33 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:The polar outflow channel this is forecast to tap into... along with high SST and TCHP water and low shear are likely why all the models ramp this up so much prior to landfall. I’ve seen storms tap into those outflow channels and do some crazy things.



Yep, once this ewrc is complete I'd expect it to strengthen..


NHC doesn't appear to agree. Or are they just being careful?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7413 Postby PandaCitrus » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:34 pm

If Irma hits south dade travelling NNW at 155MPH, that's going to push a tremendous amount of water into Biscayne Bay. 7-10 feet may end up conservative.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7414 Postby RL3AO » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:34 pm

RL3AO wrote:
PTPatrick wrote:So for the area experts...what does 7-10 feet of surge do in Miami? their text says 7-10 feet...but the maps dont look particularly impressive for such a large surge, particularly when you get north of Kendall. just looks like 1-3 on their map.


The surge models make tracks off the NHC error cone and run it over and over again. Since we're still 3 days away, many of the surge model runs are using tracks east of Miami or west of Florida west coast. Neither of those would produce much surge in SE FL. The values on that map will increase tomorrow. The 7-10 feet is directly from the storm surge experts at NHC.



Here's a map of the worst case scenario (called MOMs) per category. Select the cat 5 tab to get an idea of what *could* happen in some areas.

http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSer ... ad&entry=1

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7415 Postby PTPatrick » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:35 pm

RL3AO wrote:
PTPatrick wrote:So for the area experts...what does 7-10 feet of surge do in Miami? their text says 7-10 feet...but the maps dont look particularly impressive for such a large surge, particularly when you get north of Kendall. just looks like 1-3 on their map.


The surge models make tracks off the NHC error cone and run it over and over again. Since we're still 3 days away, many of the surge model runs are using tracks east of Miami or west of Florida west coast. Neither of those would produce much surge in SE FL. The values on that map will increase tomorrow. The 7-10 feet is directly from the storm surge experts at NHC.


That makes sense. any sense of how far inland the water would go in like say, coconut grove or downtown miami? I would imagine that would be high enough for surge to cover most of Fisher island, Key biscayne and Miami Beach to meet the bay?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7416 Postby jasons2k » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:35 pm

Most of S. FL south of the lake is the Everglades and you don't have to go far on either side to get to open water again. I think any weakening as it comes ashore will be more induced by shear rather than land interaction, until it gets north of the lake. Look at what Andrew and Katrina did while traversing the Everglades...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7417 Postby ronyan » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:36 pm

Zarniwoop wrote:
Sciencerocks wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:The polar outflow channel this is forecast to tap into... along with high SST and TCHP water and low shear are likely why all the models ramp this up so much prior to landfall. I’ve seen storms tap into those outflow channels and do some crazy things.



Yep, once this ewrc is complete I'd expect it to strengthen..


NHC doesn't appear to agree. Or are they just being careful?


NHC didn't forecast the first intensification to cat 5 either, but they are calling for 155 mph landfall! I don't get why you would think the NHC forecast is THAT accurate for intensity.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7418 Postby fsusurfer » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:38 pm

kthmcc7319 wrote:
fsusurfer wrote:In Destin... I'm wondering if I am going to have to wake up in the morning and board up with the way this thing keeps leaning more and more west.


Choctaw Beach here - I sense my wife is ready to pull the trigger and boogie on out of here. She's not trusting the timing or the angle of projected "turn north." We felt uneasy on Tuesday, fairly comfortable yesterday, back to uneasy this evening. these westward shifts are cause for concern


Exactly how it's been around here.. today no worry at all. If this hasn't changed in the morning though I have a feeling there's going to be some people freaking out and the gas stations are going to be full again with people trying to get out of town.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7419 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:40 pm

The NHC tends to be conservative about intensity forecasts out into the future, but 155mph at landfall is one mph shy from a category 5, so does it really matter?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7420 Postby meriland29 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:42 pm

ronyan wrote:
Zarniwoop wrote:
Sciencerocks wrote:

Yep, once this ewrc is complete I'd expect it to strengthen..


NHC doesn't appear to agree. Or are they just being careful?




NHC didn't forecast the first intensification to cat 5 either, but they are calling for 155 mph landfall! I don't get why you would think the NHC forecast is THAT accurate for intensity.


They said in the last advisory that it looks as though she is concentric, and that if that is the case, that she should weaken for a few days.
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