2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[NDG]

You know how every year one satellite picture is the recap of a hurricane season, well pretty soon we will have 3 hurricanes at the same time in the Atlantic Basin that will look very similar to this satellite picture, a very busy hurricane season 2017 is turning out to be.
From let to right: Katia, Irma and Jose.

[RL3AO]

Jose and Katia will be the Atlantic's 5th and 6th consecutive hurricane, and possibly the 3rd and 4th consecutive major.

[tolakram]

I think I'm comfortable now saying that this metric is useless.

[RL3AO]

I think I'm comfortable now saying that this metric is useless.

I don't know. Looks rather stable out there. Barely a cloud in the Caribbean.

[Kingarabian]

With Katia, the Atlantic has caught up with the EPac. MJO phase 2 does wonders don't it.

[Steve]

With Katia, the Atlantic has caught up with the EPac. MJO phase 2 does wonders don't it.

For the spark, yeah. That was what brought on Harvey. But I think we're in the circle and closest to 4 at the moment still supposed to head into 1 and 8 halfway between the circle and border. Both are also favorable in September for the WATL.

[tolakram]

Trouble is we are getting disturbances in the western basin and they can't find good conditions.

But, it's August 19th, just a few days from when we thought we'd have a few storms. Unexpected, yes, season cancelling ... probably not, but each time this happens the odds of even a normal season go down IMO.

It's August 24th with Harvey now churning in the gulf and conditions looking very favorable. Crazy how quick things can change.

Harvey hit just east of Corpus Christi as a cat 4 with horrible flooding in Houston, Irma has been a cat 5 for over a day and appears headed for Florida and then the Carolinas, and Katia and Jose are now hurricanes.

It's September 6th.

[Hammy]

My 2015-minus-El-NIno prediction is becoming almost haunting as Irma's future track looks similar to what many earlier models had for Erika before it started running into shear...

[MetroMike]

My 2015-minus-El-NIno prediction is becoming almost haunting as Irma's future track looks similar to what many earlier models had for Erika before it started running into shear...

Explain this better I'm confused on what you wrote.

[1900hurricane]

I think I'm comfortable now saying that this metric is useless.

[image removed]

I don't know. Looks rather stable out there. Barely a cloud in the Caribbean.

[image removed]

Yep, there's actually plenty of subsidence all across the tropical NAtl; it's just not bothering the established systems in low shear environments. Irma and Jose both came from the east where they were able to develop in a better upward motion environment (which I briefly touched on earlier, and Katia's development is partially because of convergence along a decaying boundary.

[RL3AO]

I think I'm comfortable now saying that this metric is useless.

[image removed]

I don't know. Looks rather stable out there. Barely a cloud in the Caribbean.

[image removed]

Yep, there's actually plenty of subsidence all across the tropical NAtl; it's just not bothering the established systems in low shear environments. Irma and Jose both came from the east where they were able to develop in a better upward motion environment (which I briefly touched on earlier, and Katia's development is partially because of convergence along a decaying boundary.

Of course with three hurricanes in the basin, what goes up must come down somewhere.

[Hammy]

My 2015-minus-El-NIno prediction is becoming almost haunting as Irma's future track looks similar to what many earlier models had for Erika before it started running into shear...

Explain this better I'm confused on what you wrote.

Sometime earlier in the year I'd said this year's activity could look like a 2015 "what if" scenario had El Nino not been present that year. Prior to Erika in 2015 running into the massive amount of shear it had, many of the models had shown it taking a somewhat similar track (with similar intensity) to what Irma is doing in real time, which follows eerily to what my thinking earlier had been.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

I don't know where i want to post this, but i want to tell you that this season had a possibility to be the costliest ever Atlantic hurricane season in the history, (showing worst-case scenarios): with Harvey making more than $100B+ (even maybe to $200B+), Irma hitting Miami (and further) costing more than $50B to $200B's, Possibility of Katia and/or Nate hitting New Orleans as MH (in case of Nate, Cat. 2) costing $100B+ dollars, Jose (based on Euro run) makes a Hurricane Phoenix scenario costing $100B+ dollars, Maria making a Sandy re-run (primarily New York/New Jersey) and costing $70B+, and further storms. What should we do now? Ugh...

[Ntxw]

Another view of the Atlantic this morning. What a show of 3 simultaneous hurricanes...dangerous show. WPAC has this look every now and then, EPAC most recently had this in 2015, now the Atlantic in 2017.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/905899594357383171




Eric Holthaus ✔ @EricHolthaus
Irma (left, Cat 5) and Jose (right, just upgraded to Cat 3)
Simultaneous major hurricanes for the first time in seven years.
5:04 PM - Sep 7, 2017

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/905994753417687041




Brian Brettschneider @Climatologist49
The Atlantic Basin generated more ACE today (9/7/17) than any other day on record (1900-present). @philklotzbach @EricBlake12
11:22 PM - Sep 7, 2017

[tolakram]

I can't get enough pictures. If only Katia was just a little better organized for a nice 3 eyed photo.

[RL3AO]

The Atlantic looks like 2004/2005 right now. Everything is rapidly intensifying in different parts of the basin. Let's hope it's just an active 3 weeks and not the start of an active 3 months.

[TheStormExpert]

Looking like my 16/8/4 and an ACE total of 145 units is in jeopardy if latest levels of activity continue or even just slow down some. If I had to guess I'd go with 20/10/6 with an ACE guesstimate of 200 units.