ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080336
AF309 1811A IRMA HDOB 42 20170908
032630 2117N 07112W 6967 03118 0024 +090 -011 164067 067 045 001 03
032700 2119N 07112W 6966 03119 0026 +087 +004 163068 069 050 004 03
032730 2122N 07112W 6969 03117 0026 +087 +005 161070 070 047 000 00
032800 2124N 07113W 6966 03118 0021 +089 +004 159072 072 044 001 00
032830 2126N 07113W 6966 03118 0024 +087 +009 158071 072 045 001 00
032900 2129N 07113W 6967 03116 0027 +085 +006 157071 072 045 002 00
032930 2131N 07113W 6967 03117 0029 +084 +001 156071 072 045 002 00
033000 2133N 07113W 6967 03118 0026 +086 -003 154072 073 046 002 00
033030 2136N 07114W 6967 03118 0031 +083 -002 151073 073 047 001 00
033100 2138N 07114W 6966 03119 0035 +080 -002 150073 074 047 002 00
033130 2140N 07114W 6970 03116 0030 +085 -003 147075 076 048 003 00
033200 2142N 07114W 6964 03123 0032 +083 -001 146078 078 048 004 00
033230 2145N 07114W 6967 03120 0031 +084 -001 145078 078 046 007 00
033300 2147N 07115W 6967 03119 0035 +082 +001 145079 079 047 007 00
033330 2149N 07115W 6969 03119 0028 +088 +001 145079 079 048 004 00
033400 2152N 07115W 6968 03123 0028 +090 +000 144078 079 048 003 00
033430 2154N 07115W 6967 03123 0034 +086 -000 141077 077 047 004 00
033500 2156N 07115W 6967 03125 0033 +087 +002 139078 078 046 003 00
033530 2158N 07116W 6967 03127 0030 +090 +002 139077 078 047 001 00
033600 2201N 07116W 6966 03127 0027 +093 +000 140077 078 047 002 00
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

The NHC tends to be conservative about intensity forecasts out into the future, but 155mph at landfall is one mph shy from a category 5, so does it really matter?

also the last time we saw anything from the NHC about a cat 4/5 making us landfall was when ? andrew ?

[eastcoastFL]

Yep, once this ewrc is complete I'd expect it to strengthen..

It appears that NHC in their wisdom is not convinced of that. I am not sure if why they call for weakening, unless they just dont think it can stay a cat 5 for so many days.

They have it as a 155 mph hurricane at landfall. Cat 5 is 156 mph. Does it really matter?

Riding out Wilma was terrifying so I don't know why anyone would feel better about a top end cat 4 the size of irma. Maybe it's really been so long since a storm like this has struck that people just don't grasp the seriousness of a 155mph hurricane. Frances jeanne and Wilma we're horrific and this is much much worse folks

[PTPatrick]

That map makes more sense. 10 foot over Miami with 30-40 foot waves coming in will definately not be a good thing. If that plays I imagine much of the real estate on those islands would be gutted by surge and waves. And most everything east of highway 1 would be inundated as well not to mention most of the central portion of the county near Homestead.

[shawn67]

It appears that NHC in their wisdom is not convinced of that. I am not sure if why they call for weakening, unless they just dont think it can stay a cat 5 for so many days.

They have it as a 155 mph hurricane at landfall. Cat 5 is 156 mph. Does it really matter?

I dont think it does matter. didnt mean to emply that it did. I am just more interested in what their thought process was since so much is saying it could reasonably strengthen before landfall.

I think the NHC's reluctance to say that strengthening is unlikely to occur is more based on the "art" of forecasting rather than pure science. I've seen on these boards multiple times (and I am sure that the NHC has documented numerous more times) where Cat 5 hurricanes just are not able to get their act together after a ERC resulting in slow weakening before reaching CONUS. Maintaining that CAT 5 strength is very difficult for a tropical cyclone to do for an extended period of time.

[eastcoastFL]

NHC doesn't appear to agree. Or are they just being careful?

NHC didn't forecast the first intensification to cat 5 either, but they are calling for 155 mph landfall! I don't get why you would think the NHC forecast is THAT accurate for intensity.

They said in the last advisory that it looks as though she is concentric, and that if that is the case, that she should weaken for a few days.

Read it again. They said it may fluctuate in intensity. They have it reaching Miami as a 155mph cat 4/5 hurricane.

[Sanibel]

GFS slipped back east to horrific Miami landfall...

[SFLcane]

85-100 mph winds with higher gusts is now the forecast for the Orlando area for Sunday night.

Highly doubt that should be weakening by then. Can you post a link? Thx

[ConvergenceZone]

Most of S. FL south of the lake is the Everglades and you don't have to go far on either side to get to open water again. I think any weakening as it comes ashore will be more induced by shear rather than land interaction, until it gets north of the lake. Look at what Andrew and Katrina did while traversing the Everglades...

But the last NHC discussion says that after landfall is expected to lose strength rather quickly due to land interaction.....Someone posted that earlier.....

[otowntiger]

Big shift during days 4 and 5. Good news for SC/NC.

Yes,for sure- but unfortunately not so good for us in central Florida.

[eastcoastFL]

85-100 mph winds with higher gusts is now the forecast for the Orlando area for Sunday night.

Highly doubt that should be weakening by then. Can you post a link? Thx

I'm near Orlando. It says 75 gusts to 92.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... headDay=48

[Alyono]

In Destin... I'm wondering if I am going to have to wake up in the morning and board up with the way this thing keeps leaning more and more west.

the chance remains quite remote that this is coming to Destin. This will make the northward turn. Every model and even the ensemble probabilities all but guarantee it

I think its such a weird new cone after initial landfall. I live in Mobile and all of Alabama appears in it but Mobile/Gulf Shores. No disputing it appears to initially hit FL first but on new NW trajectory, I think he means (And I am asking) once it is moving inland cam it make the inland west turn at a lower latitude?

see the stickied post about the cone. It is NOT a cone of uncertainty and should NOT be used as such

[eastcoastFL]

85-100 mph winds with higher gusts is now the forecast for the Orlando area for Sunday night.

Highly doubt that should be weakening by then. Can you post a link? Thx

I'm near Orlando. It says 75 gusts to 92.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... headDay=48

Actually my location is Davenport FL and it's showing gusts to 115mph here. Wow!!!


http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... headDay=48

[SFLcane]

85-100 mph winds with higher gusts is now the forecast for the Orlando area for Sunday night.

Highly doubt that should be weakening by then. Can you post a link? Thx

I'm near Orlando. It says 75 gusts to 92.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... headDay=48

Can you do this graphic for vero beach I'd really appreciate it I have my grandma living there. Thx

[NDG]

85-100 mph winds with higher gusts is now the forecast for the Orlando area for Sunday night.

Highly doubt that should be weakening by then. Can you post a link? Thx

I'm near Orlando. It says 75 gusts to 92.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... headDay=48

It actually says 93 mph winds gusting to 115 mph for 2 AM Monday morning.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... =0&dd=&bw=

[Hurricaneman]

Highly doubt that should be weakening by then. Can you post a link? Thx

I'm near Orlando. It says 75 gusts to 92.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... headDay=48

Actually my location is Davenport FL and it's showing gusts to 115mph here. Wow!!!


http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... headDay=48

Yep live there too, expect significant damage and power outages but nothing compared to farther south

[eastcoastFL]

I'm near Orlando. It says 75 gusts to 92.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... headDay=48

Actually my location is Davenport FL and it's showing gusts to 115mph here. Wow!!!


http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... headDay=48

Yep live there too, expect significant damage and power outages but nothing compared to farther south

I fled from Palm Beach to here. Looks like we'll be sheltering at the local high school in Haines City. I went and checked it out today. They said FEMA will be there and all the local restaurants will be serving food. They said it can fit 5,000 people and all we need to bring is blankets and pillows. I feel so relieved now after going there.

[NDG]

Highly doubt that should be weakening by then. Can you post a link? Thx

I'm near Orlando. It says 75 gusts to 92.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... headDay=48

Can you do this graphic for vero beach I'd really appreciate it I have my grandma living there. Thx

69 mph & 85 mph wind gusts is what it shows. But I wouldn't doubt that it could be higher than this.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 2&site=all

[RL3AO]

Hurricane Irma Local Statement Advisory Number 36
National Weather Service Miami FL AL112017
1129 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017

This product covers SOUTH FLORIDA

**MAJOR HURRICANE IRMA TO IMPACT SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND**

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating
impacts across South Florida. Potential impacts include:
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible devastating
impacts across Coastal Collier, Mainland Monroe, and Coastal Miami-Dade
coastlines. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
stressed.
- Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
- Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
onshore and stranded.

Also, protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
to extensive impacts along the immediate Broward and Palm Beach
counties coastlines.

[Hurricane Andrew]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Hurricane Andrew's Intensity Forecast

Code: Select all

11pm Thursday - 165mph
11pm Friday - 145mph
11pm Saturday - 165mph ... SSE of Miami
11pm Sunday - 115mph ... a little west of Melbourne, FL
11pm Monday - 70mph ... central Georgia
11pm Tuesday - 40mph ... AL/TN/GA border area