ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Highly doubt that should be weakening by then. Can you post a link? Thx

I'm near Orlando. It says 75 gusts to 92.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... headDay=48

Can you do this graphic for vero beach I'd really appreciate it I have my grandma living there. Thx

Sure here ya go. Looks like sustained wind in the 70s gusts to high 80s. Cat 1 winds


http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... headDay=48

[eastcoastFL]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Hurricane Andrew's Intensity Forecast

Code: Select all

11pm Thursday - 165mph
11pm Friday - 145mph
11pm Saturday - 165mph ... SSE of Miami
11pm Sunday - 115mph ... a little west of Melbourne, FL
11pm Monday - 70mph ... central Georgia
11pm Tuesday - 40mph ... AL/TN/GA border area


Thanks for doing these. You've been pretty spot on tho I hope you're wrong soon..

[Aric Dunn]

at least temporarilly IRMA is weakening while the ERC completes. lets just hope it does not recover from it like many other hurricanes before..

[Hurricane Andrew]

It looks like the eyewall is opening up on the NW side...recon is finding weaker winds...perhaps a weakening phase.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... 3-200-1-10

[AdamFirst]

Enjoying seeing the Patriots getting their teeth kicked in. A nice comfort since the Dolphins aren't playing this weekend.

[eastcoastFL]

I'm near Orlando. It says 75 gusts to 92.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... headDay=48

Can you do this graphic for vero beach I'd really appreciate it I have my grandma living there. Thx

69 mph & 85 mph wind gusts is what it shows. But I wouldn't doubt that it could be higher than this.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 2&site=all

These local nws forecasts tend to change often. So keep checking them every few hours.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080406
AF309 1811A IRMA HDOB 45 20170908
035630 2214N 07152W 6966 03101 0014 +080 -001 120087 088 052 006 00
035700 2213N 07153W 6969 03093 0011 +078 +001 123086 088 054 004 00
035730 2212N 07154W 6968 03088 9997 +084 +012 125084 085 054 004 00
035800 2210N 07156W 6974 03082 9996 +083 +018 127085 086 056 006 00
035830 2209N 07157W 6962 03089 9997 +076 +017 125080 085 057 006 03
035900 2208N 07158W 6967 03076 9990 +076 +019 123080 081 060 005 00
035930 2207N 07200W 6968 03073 9992 +073 +020 120078 080 060 011 00
040000 2205N 07201W 6962 03074 9985 +074 +025 128087 088 063 011 03
040030 2204N 07202W 6967 03062 9979 +075 +027 128086 087 065 014 03
040100 2203N 07204W 6966 03063 9976 +074 +027 127088 089 065 007 00
040130 2202N 07205W 6967 03054 9968 +074 +028 128091 094 069 011 00
040200 2201N 07206W 6971 03046 9967 +071 +028 128092 094 069 011 00
040230 2159N 07208W 6967 03046 9955 +075 +030 131089 092 071 011 00
040300 2158N 07209W 6966 03040 9949 +076 +031 130092 096 070 016 00
040330 2157N 07210W 6968 03027 9936 +078 +028 136093 094 072 016 00
040400 2156N 07211W 6963 03029 9924 +082 +029 136099 101 072 008 00
040430 2155N 07212W 6966 03017 9913 +081 +033 135104 105 078 009 00
040500 2154N 07214W 6969 03005 9909 +078 +031 139105 107 080 010 00
040530 2153N 07215W 6962 03004 9887 +087 +029 140110 114 082 009 00
040600 2152N 07216W 6964 02992 9885 +080 +031 138111 114 086 013 00
$$

[dandeliongum]

Hey all, frequent silent reader here!

I have a question, unfortunately i am extremely agoraphobic and while I booked a reservation up North, I could not pull it together enough to actually make it. Too much panic, anxiety and stress. I hate myself for it. However, I was reading the forecast for my area - west-ish Pembroke Pines - and it says to expect 80-115 mph winds. I'm wondering if that's an actual possibility? As it sounds significantly less horrifying if that's the case. Still horrifying, but obviously not a Cat 4 or heaven forbid, a Cat 5. Despite me not getting out of here, I have a couple weeks worth of food and water, plywood up, front and back yard is cleared of debris, lots of batteries, lanterns, battery operated fans and radios. AC/DC car charger, tanks filled, phone battery pack... I would love to find a generator tomorrow but I have a feeling that won't happen. I am very scared and was just wondering if there was any way this could be true?

[Hurricaneman]

It looks like the eyewall is opening up on the NW side...recon is finding weaker winds...perhaps a weakening phase.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... 3-200-1-10

Probably has something to do with inflow interruption due to Hispaniola

[AutoPenalti]

It looks like the eyewall is opening up on the NW side...recon is finding weaker winds...perhaps a weakening phase.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... 3-200-1-10

It's going through an EWRC I think?

[HeatherAKC]

Good evening Storm2k! Here I sit in NW Dade, Miami Lakes. (I also have a lanai level condo on North Beachh which I have no realistic expectations for) I have been a long time lurker and rarely post....just read and keep up every season and am grateful for this well run forum even in the most boring season. We have shuttered up, have all we need and going to ride it out here. Cannot say I am not afraid, but I am keeping it cool for my teenager. I will try to give updates, possibly text posts, photos, or video (security cameras), depending upon severity. No promises. Thanks all for your wealth of knowledge over the years!

[1900hurricane]

Eyewall replacement is now clearly evident on IR.

[Ptarmigan]

Irma has a lot of warm water ahead.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.html

[SouthDadeFish]

Hey all, frequent silent reader here!

I have a question, unfortunately i am extremely agoraphobic and while I booked a reservation up North, I could not pull it together enough to actually make it. Too much panic, anxiety and stress. I hate myself for it. However, I was reading the forecast for my area - west-ish Pembroke Pines - and it says to expect 80-115 mph winds. I'm wondering if that's an actual possibility? As it sounds significantly less horrifying if that's the case. Still horrifying, but obviously not a Cat 4 or heaven forbid, a Cat 5. Despite me not getting out of here, I have a couple weeks worth of food and water, plywood up, front and back yard is cleared of debris, lots of batteries, lanterns, battery operated fans and radios. AC/DC car charger, tanks filled, phone battery pack... I would love to find a generator tomorrow but I have a feeling that won't happen. I am very scared and was just wondering if there was any way this could be true?

It's still too early to be confident in a wind speed forecast at a specific location. Those values are possible, but cat 4 winds are also still possible. We just don't know yet. We do know that some kind of hurricane-force winds are very likely though.

[RL3AO]

The NHC has sent some of their forecasters to Washington DC to take over if their communications go down. If that isn't a sign of how serious this is to Miami, I don't know what is.

[NDG]

Hurricane fore winds extend approximately 70 miles NE from the eye.

040030 2204N 07202W 6967 03062 9979 +075 +027 128086 087 065 014 03

[Ptarmigan]

That is very bad.

And not confirmed. Let's make sure to get confirmation before posting please. DRUDGE is not confirmation.

Thank you. I had to go to 5 stations, but found gas to top off my other vehicle tonight. There was a line but it was tolerable. I don't want to see the stories on TV (which we will) where the little old lady cries about being able to find gas even though she only went to the one station 5 minutes from her home. Folks, if you're not prepped by now, you're really going to have to work at it, and that includes evacuations.

Fuel shortages, bottlenecks hamper Florida mass exodus
https://phys.org/news/2017-09-fuel-shor ... orida.html

Waiting in line for gasoline is no fun.

[Cyclenall]

wow that wind field has grown a lot.. look how far out the 100 + mph winds go !!

005800 2113N 07155W 6964 02468 9230 +168 +077 162063 073 060 001 00
005830 2115N 07153W 6965 02494 9271 +154 +079 161090 098 071 003 03
005900 2116N 07152W 6963 02540 9350 +120 +080 159119 130 110 006 03
005930 2118N 07150W 6989 02578 9435 +106 +072 153138 140 116 027 00
010000 2119N 07149W 6962 02668 9494 +110 +064 151132 136 112 008 00
010030 2120N 07148W 6963 02713 9543 +110 +059 149128 129 102 002 00
010100 2122N 07146W 6966 02748 9576 +118 +054 148124 127 102 000 03
010130 2123N 07145W 6967 02780 9608 +124 +051 147120 122 103 000 00
010200 2124N 07144W 6964 02813 9644 +118 +053 146118 120 103 003 00
010230 2125N 07143W 6967 02832 9664 +121 +054 145115 117 105 006 00
010300 2127N 07141W 6969 02845 9705 +101 +057 147109 114 105 010 00
010330 2128N 07140W 6977 02867 9755 +085 +056 144119 124 103 025 00
010400 2129N 07139W 6958 02905 9776 +084 +052 142122 123 093 019 00
010430 2130N 07137W 6963 02917 9798 +080 +048 142121 123 094 019 00
010500 2131N 07136W 6973 02926 9822 +079 +044 143123 124 091 019 00
010530 2133N 07135W 6966 02945 9836 +078 +041 145120 123 086 024 00
010600 2134N 07134W 6967 02956 9850 +079 +044 145118 122 083 025 00
010630 2135N 07132W 6971 02961 9863 +075 +043 144117 119 093 017 00
010700 2136N 07131W 6965 02976 9874 +077 +029 149115 116 100 013 03
010730 2138N 07130W 6971 02981 9895 +071 +024 152114 115 095 011 03
010800 2139N 07128W 6953 03016 9902 +074 +033 149114 116 /// /// 03
010830 2140N 07127W 6965 03011 9911 +078 +035 150111 113 091 001 00
010900 2142N 07126W 6967 03018 9916 +084 +030 150105 109 080 010 00
010930 2143N 07124W 6967 03027 9926 +083 +029 151099 104 086 010 00
011000 2144N 07123W 6967 03037 9943 +076 +034 151099 099 091 012 00
011030 2146N 07122W 6979 03030 9954 +075 +034 148098 100 070 012 00
011100 2147N 07120W 6966 03056 9964 +076 +032 142089 098 068 012 00
011130 2148N 07119W 6964 03060 9973 +071 +028 141083 088 067 009 00
011200 2149N 07118W 6965 03063 9965 +081 +026 142084 084 066 009 00

That is beyond nuts! You could just look at Irma this afternoon and yes now and see this isn't something we've seen before in modern times. I'd imagine scenarios with hurricane's this large making the same path - wasn't sure if it would ever occur.

Did anyone catch the 10 pm start on CNN where those people on the Florida keys were going to ride it out? Then the guy being interviewed cussed twice .

[sikkar]

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_l ... R&loop=yes


Guantanamo radar

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080416
AF309 1811A IRMA HDOB 46 20170908
040630 2151N 07217W 6960 02989 9880 +078 +034 136111 112 092 017 03
040700 2150N 07218W 6970 02966 9867 +079 +035 138113 114 /// /// 03
040730 2149N 07219W 6962 02972 9857 +080 +037 136113 114 /// /// 03
040800 2147N 07220W 6977 02947 9854 +076 +036 134115 116 /// /// 03
040830 2146N 07221W 6955 02965 9846 +077 +034 134117 120 109 013 00
040900 2145N 07223W 6962 02939 9829 +078 +035 134118 120 085 012 00
040930 2144N 07224W 6962 02925 9818 +074 +030 134122 123 088 015 00
041000 2143N 07225W 6967 02902 9806 +065 +026 134125 126 094 033 00
041030 2142N 07226W 6963 02891 9782 +071 +033 137127 130 097 048 03
041100 2141N 07227W 6981 02855 9761 +075 +041 140136 138 /// /// 03
041130 2140N 07228W 6952 02866 9734 +079 +042 143134 139 /// /// 03
041200 2140N 07229W 6966 02839 9709 +089 +047 144116 133 111 025 00
041230 2139N 07230W 6986 02803 9676 +100 +056 142109 116 105 014 00
041300 2138N 07231W 6964 02811 9638 +122 +059 143107 111 105 015 00
041330 2137N 07232W 6965 02797 9602 +139 +064 146108 110 107 004 00
041400 2136N 07233W 6976 02760 9577 +142 +067 146110 112 108 003 00
041430 2135N 07234W 6962 02765 9562 +137 +067 147114 115 109 006 00
041500 2134N 07236W 6966 02730 9538 +133 +064 147117 118 105 004 00
041530 2133N 07237W 6971 02696 9503 +140 +062 149118 118 104 004 03
041600 2132N 07238W 6963 02672 9468 +140 +048 150118 119 103 000 03
$$
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